文字、美术、排版：二师兄
翻译：三师妹
Please note that the full English translation is at the end.
这是整个研究学习过程中，耗费时间和精力最长的环节，走的弯路不再赘述。把最终我们求知的路径最直接的展示给大家：
具体分析法请见往期文章
【寻找水晶球】——决策树模型的原理 Principle of decision tree model
。
这是一个不断试错的过程，最终我们找到了影响石化行业利润周期的三个指标，它们的特点：波动明显，而非稳定；是影响利润的根本因素；互相不重叠。
具体分析法请见往期文章
价格周期的层次 The level of the price cycle
。
二叉树的推理给予了一个理性的逻辑路径，同时我们的周期分析框架也对这个
短中长期的产业利润问题
提供定性的支持。下图是我们研究价格问题时所采用的周期指标框架。
一些机构在研究原油价格时，中期视角会观察产业的闲置，长期会关注产业的资本开支。
所以对于石化产业的利润周期的研究，从中期角度可以用开工率（即闲置产能），长期用
“
新增需求
-
新增产能
”
（代表着产业投资力度）来切入和深入。
我们回溯了过去
20
年的历史数据，并且预测了未来
3
年的行业表现，时间跨度为
2002~2026
。为了方便起见，我们分成了两个图：
1
）利润与石脑油；
2
）利润与开工率、新增需求
-
新增供应。
短期高频来观察，原料价格（石脑油）经常和产业利润保持高度的同步，虽然也会有偏离的情况，但是以规模经济为主要特征的石油化工产业链而言，可以看得出上游的成本传导非常迅速、也相当灵敏和有效。
“
石脑油
--
化工产品
”
加工利润的影响因素，可以参考往期文章
“原油—成品油/石脑油—化工品”谁是链上的老大？
。
中长期来观察，大约每十年就要出现一个亏损期，在过去
20
年我们经历了两个，一个是
2011~2012
，
2
年时间。另一个就是现在，从
2022
年开始。它们都对应着行业开工率的大幅降低，新增需求明显小于新增产能。同样，当行业景气度高利润好时，开工率都相对偏高，新增产能小于新增需求。
需要注意的是，第一个亏损衰退阶段应该从
2009
年底或
2010
年初开始，但是
2009
年全球金融危机后全球的量化宽松和中国的
4
万亿推迟了这一过程
1~2
年。同样，我们现在经历的这一轮衰退期，也应该从
2020
年开始，但是疫情后
1
）欧美的货币宽松和财政刺激造成的通货膨胀以及需求激增，
2
）供应链断裂引起的供需失衡，
3
）供给侧扩张降速
--
新产能的建设推迟等，这些因素都将这一次的衰退推后
1~2
年。
新增需求
-
新增产能（简称
“
新增
”
）：
采用用全球数据，因为石化产品最终是通过全球贸易流动来达到平衡，但平衡需要时间。而且我们发现
“
新增
”
在
2010
年大约领先
2
年，在
2010
年以后领先
1
年。
开工率：
采用东北亚数据，因为我们主要研究就是东北亚的产业周期或者说是中国的产业周期。一方面而
2008
年之前中国的产能明显短缺长期供应不足，且石化企业多为央企和国企，开工率不具备代表性，另一方面中国过去长期高度依赖进口，特别是从东北亚地区的进口，所以将东北亚开成一个整体进行研究。
产业利润：
乙烯工程是石油化工的支柱和基础，聚烯烃是代表性较强和占比最大，而
“
石脑油
--
聚烯烃
“
生产链是历史最为悠久和布局最为广泛的工艺路线，所以我们以其为研究样本。另外长期而言，东北亚的石脑油装置在全球都是较为边际的产能，对于利润的变化相对灵敏。
石脑油利润公式（美金）：
2PE+1PP-(NAP*1.35*3+410+70)
，采用市场上较为普遍的经验公式，以及石脑油裂解装置较为典型的烯烃收率：
3
份石脑油，
2
份乙烯
1
份丙烯。
价格样本：
成本端
--
石脑油
MOPJ
，产品端
--LLDPEPP
，取样是东北亚与东南亚的
CFR,
因为
1
、东北亚装置首先直接供应这两个地区，
2
、这两个市场高度联动，且
21
世纪初期东南亚货物流通更加通畅，更能代表市场的真实情况；
3
、东北亚
CFR
的绝大部分需求就是中国。
石脑油是短期高频指标，开工率其实是和产业利润同步变化的数据，而
“
新增产能
-
新增需求
”
（简称
“
新增
”
）可能是最内生性和前瞻性的指标。
在此我们想举一个例子说明三者的关系，如果我们想研究某个人胖瘦的规律：
高频
:
体重秤的读数，而且也会偏离，有时体重增加都是肌肉，就不能说胖。
同步
:
遗传基因，有人天生就胖，基因强大而且将伴随一生。
领先
:
生活习惯，如果天生胖，但是养成了良好的生活习惯，每天过午不食，健身房天天打卡，那么他是有可能逆袭成功的。
所以最有意义的是去观察他的生活习惯，这样才能预测他的变化。
同样，三个因素中的
“
新增
”
就是应该重点研究的领先指标。
我们从上面利润周期图发现，在
2010
年以前
“
新增
”
是领先
2
年，
2010
年以后是领先
1
年，时间缩短的原因是：
2
）贸易壁垒和关税壁垒在逐渐消除，
2019
年以前更为明显
3
）最重要的是，过去的产能扩张主要是在西方（原料集中地、技术或资金来源地），后来的投产新增主要是在东方更接近消费地，所以平衡得越来越快。
请见下图，东方的扩产占全球的比重在
2010
发生了明显的变化从长期维持在
45%
，一跃到
50%
，逐年上升到现在的
65%
。中国在东方的占比更为明显，从
2008
前后稳定到
55%
，逐年上升到
70%
本文的西方、东方并非传统的东西方概念，只是一种便于区分的类别名称：西方
=
非洲
+
中欧
+
独联体
+
中东
+
北美
+
南美
+
西欧；东方
=
东北亚
+
东南亚
+
印度次大陆。
我们再回到产业利润周期的图，在这一次我们正在经历的亏损衰退期，
“
新增
”
的曲线负得更深、负得更久，我们预计这一轮的衰退也将跌得更深、跌得更久，也许未来还将持续
1~2
年左右，在
2024
年才能走出行业的冬天！
一个站在盒子里的人是没办法推动一个盒子前进的，反过来也一样，一个下落的物体无法去让自己停止坠落。产业本身解决不了它自己下行周期的问题，我们需要借助产业之外的力量，其中之一就是利用金融工具进行市场风险的主动管理，比如
加工利润的套期保值、原料采购的套期保值、产品销售的套期保值。
让产业之外的力量去对冲产业的下行风险。这方面的实践不是我们的专长，我们尝试建立了一些套保方案，并根据实际数据进行了测试模拟。在
2021
年度，方案创造了
1500
元
/
吨的盘面加工利润，对冲掉了相关企业套保产品的所有加工利润亏损。
利用金融工具进行风险规避尤其是行业大周期的风险规避，是有其理论依据和实际价值的。
关于如何应对行业下行周期的方法论的讨论，我们曾经进行过简单的总结：供应链优化增效vs金融工具套保对冲，请参考下图：
石化企业是整个产业链的龙头和链主，它如果进入到亏损或者下行周期，对于整个链条而言都存在一定传导压力。下行周期我们预测还有
2
年，整个产业链都应该打起精神做好准备。
最后，大家不要忘记亏损期后行业盈利表现的改善也会迅速而猛烈，通常在冲破底部区域一年左右重新回到的一个较为可观的盈利水平，而且石化行业迄今为止，景气周期远比底部周期持续得更长和维持得更高。
所以，走过冬天固然重要，但也要做好迎接春天的准备。
1.What determines the profit cycle of the petrochemical industry?
Short-term: Raw material (naphtha)
Medium-term: Operating rate
Long-term: new demand - new capacity
2. How long will the loss cycle last starting in 2022?
2022~2024, it will take another 1~2 years
3. How to deal with the downward cycle of the petrochemical industry?
Risk management with financial instruments
What determines the profit cycle of the petrochemical industry
This is the longest time and energy consuming link in the entire research and learning process, and the detours taken will not be repeated. We would like to show you the most direct way of our knowledge:
1. Reasoning of binary tree analysis
For specific analysis methods, please refer to the previous article [Finding the Crystal Ball] - Principle of decision tree model.
This is a process of trial and error, and finally we find three indicators that affect the profit cycle of the petrochemical industry, which are characterized by: obvious volatility, not stability; is a fundamental factor affecting profits; Do not overlap with each other.
Short-term high-frequency indicator: Raw material prices
Medium-term synchronization indicator: operating rate
Long-term leading indicator: new demand - new capacity
The short, medium and long term here refers to the impact time on industrial profits.
The specific reasoning process is shown in the figure below:
2. Evidence of short, medium and long-term analysis methods
For specific analysis, see the previous article The level of the price cycle.
The reasoning of binary trees gives a rational logical path, and our cyclical analysis framework also provides qualitative support for this short, medium and long-term industrial profit problem. The chart below is the framework of cyclical indicators that we use when studying price issues.
When studying crude oil prices, some institutions will observe the idle industry from a medium-term perspective and pay attention to the capital expenditure of the industry in the long term. Therefore, for the study of the profit cycle of the petrochemical industry, from a medium-term perspective, the operating rate (that is, idle capacity) can be used to cut in and deepen, and the long-term use of "new demand - new capacity" (representing industrial investment strength) to cut and deepen.
3. The interrelationship between the three indicators and industrial profits
We have reviewed the historical data of the past 20 years and predicted the performance of the industry in the next 3 years, covering the time span of 2002~2026. For convenience, we have divided into two charts: 1) profit vs naphtha; 2) Profit and operating rate, new demand - new supply.
Short-term high-frequency observation, raw material prices (naphtha) often maintain a high degree of synchronization with industrial profits, although there will be deviations, but in the petrochemical industry chain with economies of scale as the main feature, it can be seen that the upstream cost transmission is very rapid, but also quite sensitive and effective. The influencing factors of the processing profit of "naphtha - chemical products" can refer to the previous article "crude oil - refined oil / naphtha - chemicals" Who is the boss in the chain?.
In the medium and long term, there will be a loss period every ten years, and we have experienced two in the past 20 years, one is 2011~2012, 2 years. The other is now, starting in 2022. They all correspond to a significant reduction in the operating rate of the industry, and the new demand is significantly less than the new capacity. Similarly, when the industry is prosperous and profitable, the operating rate is relatively high, and the new capacity is less than the new demand.
It should be noted that the first loss recession stage should start from the end of 2009 or the beginning of 2010, but the global quantitative easing after GFC in 2009 and China’s 4 trillion delayed this process by 1~2 years. Similarly, the round of recession we are experiencing now should also start in 2020, but after the epidemic, 1) inflation and demand surge caused by monetary easing and fiscal stimulus in Europe and the United States, 2) supply-demand imbalance caused by supply chain disruption, 3) supply-side expansion slowdown - the construction of new production capacity has been postponed, etc., these factors have postponed this recession by 1~2 years.
Notes on calculation formulas and data samples:
New Demand – New Capacity ("Addition"): Global data is used, as petrochemicals are ultimately balanced through global trade flows, but balancing takes time. And we found that "additions" led by about 2 years in 2010 and 1 year ahead after 2010.
Operating rate: Using Northeast Asia data, because we mainly study the industrial cycle in Northeast Asia or the industrial cycle in China. On the one hand, before 2008, China’s production capacity was obviously short and the long-term supply was insufficient, and most petrochemical enterprises were central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and the operating rate was not representative, on the other hand, China had long been highly dependent on imports, especially from Northeast Asia, so Northeast Asia was developed as a whole for study.
Industrial profit: ethylene engineering is the pillar and foundation of petrochemical industry, polyolefin is the most representative and the largest proportion, and the "naphtha-polyolefin" production chain is the oldest and most extensive layout of the process route, so we take it as a research sample. In addition, in the long run, naphtha plants in Northeast Asia are relatively marginal production capacity in the world, and are relatively sensitive to changes in profits.
Naphtha profit formula (USD): 2PE+1PP- (NAP*1.35*3+410+70), using the more common empirical formula in the market, and the more typical olefin yield of naphtha cracker: 3 parts naphtha, 2 parts ethylene and 1 part propylene.
Price sample: cost side - naphtha MOPJ, product end - LLDPEPP, sampling is the CFR of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, because 1. Northeast Asia equipment first directly supplies these two regions, 2. These two markets are highly linked, and the circulation of goods in Southeast Asia in the early 21st century is smoother, which can better represent the real situation of the market; 3. The vast majority of demand for CFR in Northeast Asia is China.
How long is the loss cycle that starts in 2022?
Naphtha is a short-term high-frequency indicator, and the operating rate is actually a data that changes synchronously with industrial profits, and "new capacity - new demand" (referred to as "new demand") may be the most endogenous and forward-looking indicator.
We find from the above profit cycle chart that before 2010, the "new" is 2 years ahead, and after 2010 it is 1 year ahead, and the reason for the shortening time is:
1) The efficiency of global logistics and capital is improving
2) Trade barriers and tariff barriers are gradually being eliminated, becoming more pronounced until 2019
3) Most importantly, the past capacity expansion was mainly in the West (raw material concentration, technology or capital source), and later production additions were mainly in the East closer to the consumption place, so the balance is getting faster and faster. As shown in the figure below, the proportion of Oriental production expansion in the world has changed significantly in 2010, jumping from 45% for a long time, jumping to 50%, and rising year by year to 65% now. China’s share in the East is even more pronounced, stabilizing to 55% around 2008 and rising to 70% year by year
The West and East in this article are not traditional East-West concepts, but just a category name that is easy to distinguish: West = Africa + Central Europe + CIS + Middle East + North America + South America + Western Europe; East = Northeast Asia + Southeast Asia + Indian Subcontinent.
Let’s go back to the chart of the industrial profit cycle, this time we are experiencing a loss recession period, the "new" curve is deeper and longer, we expect this round of recession will also fall deeper and fall longer, maybe the future will last about 1~2 years, in 2024 to get out of the winter of the industry!
How to deal with the downward cycle of the petrochemical industry?
A person standing in a box cannot push a box forward, and vice versa, a falling object cannot stop itself from falling. The industry itself cannot solve the problem of its own downward cycle, we need to rely on forces outside the industry, one of which is the use of financial instruments for active management of market risks, such as hedging of processing profits, hedging of raw material procurement, and hedging of product sales.
Let forces outside the industry hedge the downside risks of the industry. Practice in this area is not our specialty, we tried to set up some hedging schemes and tested simulations based on actual data. In 2021, the plan created a disk processing profit of 1,500 yuan / ton, hedging off all processing profit losses of hedging products of related enterprises. The use of financial instruments for risk avoidance, especially risk avoidance in large industry cycles, has its theoretical basis and practical value.
Regarding the discussion of how to deal with the methodology of the downcycle of the industry, we have briefly summarized: supply chain optimization and efficiency enhancement vs hedging of financial instruments, please refer to the figure below.
Petrochemical enterprises are the leaders and chain owners of the entire industrial chain, and if they enter a loss or downward cycle, there is a certain transmission pressure for the entire chain. We predict that there are still 2 years left in the downward cycle, and the entire industry chain should be mentally prepared.
Finally, let’s not forget that the improvement in the industry’s earnings performance after the loss period will also be rapid, usually returning to a relatively considerable profit level in about a year after breaking through the bottom area, and the upward cycle of petrochemical industry has so far continued longer and maintained higher than the downward cycle.
So, while it’s important to walk through winter, it’s also important to be prepared for spring.
这就是生命！没有什么力量能扼杀生命。生命是这样顽强，它对抗的是整整一个严寒的冬天。冬天退却了，生命之花却蓬勃地怒放。
你，为了这瞬间的辉煌，忍耐了多少暗淡无光的日月？你会死亡，但你也会证明生命有多么强大。
死亡的只是躯壳，生命将涅磐，生生不息，并会以另一种形式永存。
各有关单位：
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