控制1.5℃温升的全球剩余碳预算将在未来6-9年内耗尽

全球碳项目（GCP）的最新评估显示，温升1.5摄氏度的剩余“碳预算”（即在50%的可能性保持在1.5℃以下的情况下仍能排放的二氧化碳量）为 3800亿吨 二氧化碳（GtCO2），按照目前的排放速度，这一预算将在九年内被耗尽。

但1.5℃温升的剩余碳预算实际上可能比GCP的估计更少。智库CarbonBrief估计剩余的1.5℃碳预算可能仅为 2600亿吨 （比GCP的估计少1200亿吨）。如果排放量保持在目前的水平，这一预算将在大约六年半内用完。

• The remaining carbon budget keeping warming below 1.5C will be gone in nine years, if emissions remain at current levels.
• The increase in global fossil emissions in 2022 was driven by a small increase in US emissions and a larger increase in Indian and rest-of-the-world emissions. Chinese emissions saw a small decline, while EU emissions remained largely unchanged from 2021.
• Most of the increase in emissions was from oil. Coal saw a slight increase in emissions – somewhat smaller than might have been expected given the global energy crisis – while gas emissions remained flat and emissions from cement saw a slight decline
• Global CO2 concentrations set a new record of 417.2 parts per million (ppm), up 2.5ppm from 2021 levels. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are now 51% above pre-industrial levels.
• The effects of climate change have reduced the CO2 uptake of the ocean sink by around 4% and the land sink by around 17%.