【报告】IEA：《可再生能源 2023——2028年分析与预测》

如今，各类可再生能源越来越为人们所熟知，有些已经走进日常生活中。

根据近日国际能源署（IEA）发布的《2023年可再生能源》年度市场报告，2023年全球可再生能源新增装机容量创历史新高，太阳能、风能以及其他清洁能源的新增装机容量比2022年增长了近50%，新增装机容量达510吉瓦。到2025年初，可再生能源有望取代煤炭，成为全球最主要的电力来源。

2023年11月，英国气候及能源智库机构恩伯发布的报告预测，到本世纪末世界可再生能源产能将翻一番。而此次IEA发布的报告则预计到本世纪末可再生能源产能增长2.5倍，远超此前的预测。

恩伯的Dave Jones表示，这种大幅增长并不是过去几个月各国政策变化或新项目设立带来的，而是中国太阳能和风能最新数据带来的。

IEA报告指出，从各国和各地区情况来看，2023年中国可再生能源装机容量增长全球领先，这一年中国风能新增装机容量比2022年增长66%、中国太阳能光伏新增装机容量相当于2022年全球太阳能光伏新增装机容量。

“中国是2023年全球可再生能源惊人增长的最重要驱动力。”国际能源署署长Fatih Birol说，此外，欧洲、美国和巴西创历史新高的可再生能源装机容量增长，也是重要驱动力。

不过，报告同时强调，尽管当前清洁能源以前所未有的速度增长，全球也在向《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十八次缔约方大会设定的目标迈进，即到2030年全球可再生能源装机容量增至3倍，但当前增速还不足以实现该目标。

报告指出，缩小可再生能源差距需要世界各国采取不同的干预措施。比如，高收入国家应改善电网情况、加快审批积压的能源项目，而低收入国家则需要获得清洁能源项目资金支持。

“在我看来，国际社会面对的最大挑战是如何在大多数新兴和发展中经济体迅速扩大可再生能源的融资和部署。”Birol指出，这些经济体中有许多在新能源经济中处于落后地位，而能否实现2030年全球可再生能源装机容量增至3倍的目标，取决于此。

相关链接：

https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2023

IEA新闻

（以下内容为自动翻译软件整理，请以英文原版为准）

2023 年世界可再生能源发电量将比 2022 年增加 50%，未来 5 年将出现迄今为止最快的增长，但新兴和发展中经济体缺乏融资是关键问题

World added 50% more renewable capacity in 2023 than in 2022 and next 5 years will see fastest growth yet, but lack of financing for emerging and developing economies is key issue

IEA表示，全球可再生能源发电能力的扩张速度比过去三十年来的任何时候都要快，这使其真正有机会实现各国政府在上个月的COP28气候变化会议上设定的到2030年将全球发电能力增加两倍的目标在一份新报告中。

The world’s capacity to generate renewable electricity is expanding faster than at any time in the last three decades, giving it a real chance of achieving the goal of tripling global capacity by 2030 that governments set at the COP28 climate change conference last month, the IEA says in a new report.

根据最新一期的《可再生能源 2023》，全球能源系统新增可再生能源容量在 2023 年增长了 50%，达到近 510 吉瓦 (GW)，其中太阳能光伏发电占全球新增容量的四分之三 。IEA 关于该行业的年度市场报告。增幅最大的国家是中国，其2023年太阳能光伏发电量相当于2022年全球发电量，而中国风电新增装机量同比增长66%。欧洲、美国和巴西的可再生能源产能增幅也创历史新高。

The amount of renewable energy capacity added to energy systems around the world grew by 50% in 2023, reaching almost 510 gigawatts (GW), with solar PV accounting for three-quarters of additions worldwide, according to Renewables 2023, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual market report on the sector. The largest growth took place in China, which commissioned as much solar PV in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022, while China’s wind power additions rose by 66% year-on-year. The increases in renewable energy capacity in Europe, the United States and Brazil also hit all-time highs.

最新分析是 自12月迪拜COP28会议结束以来首次对全球可再生能源部署趋势进行全面评估。报告显示，在现有政策和市场条件下，预计2023-28年期间全球可再生能源发电容量将增长至7300吉瓦。太阳能光伏和风能占新增发电量的 95%，到 2025 年初，可再生能源将取代煤炭成为全球最大的发电来源。尽管过去 12 个月实现了前所未有的增长，但世界仍需进一步将发电容量增加两倍2030 年，各国在 COP28 上同意这样做。

The latest analysis is the first comprehensive assessment of global renewable energy deployment trends since the conclusion of the COP28 conference in Dubai in December. The report shows that under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable power capacity is now expected to grow to 7 300 GW over the 2023-28 period covered by the forecast. Solar PV and wind account for 95% of the expansion, with renewables overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity generation by early 2025. But despite the unprecedented growth over the past 12 months, the world needs to go further to triple capacity by 2030, which countries agreed to do at COP28.

除该报告外，国际能源署还发布了新的可再生能源进展跟踪器，允许用户探索区域和国家层面的历史数据和预测，包括跟踪实现三倍目标的进展情况。

Alongside the report, the IEA also released a new Renewable Energy Progress Tracker, which allows users to explore historical data and forecasts at the regional and country level, including tracking progress towards the tripling goal.

“新的IEA报告显示，在当前政策和市场条件下，到2030年，全球可再生能源发电量已经增长两倍半。这还不足以实现COP28将可再生能源发电量增加两倍的目标，但我们IEA 执行董事法提赫·比罗尔 (Fatih Birol)表示：“我们正在更接近这一目标，而且各国政府拥有缩小差距所需的工具。”“如今，陆上风能和太阳能光伏发电比几乎所有地方的新化石燃料发电厂都便宜，而且比大多数国家现有的化石燃料发电厂更便宜。仍有一些重大障碍需要克服，包括困难的全球宏观经济环境。对我来说，国际社会面临的最重要挑战是在大多数新兴和发展中经济体中迅速扩大可再生能源的融资和部署，其中许多经济体在新能源经济中处于落后地位。能否成功实现三倍目标将取决于此。”

“The new IEA report shows that under current policies and market conditions, global renewable capacity is already on course to increase by two-and-a-half times by 2030. It’s not enough yet to reach the COP28 goal of tripling renewables, but we’re moving closer – and governments have the tools needed to close the gap,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Onshore wind and solar PV are cheaper today than new fossil fuel plants almost everywhere and cheaper than existing fossil fuel plants in most countries. There are still some big hurdles to overcome, including the difficult global macroeconomic environment. For me, the most important challenge for the international community is rapidly scaling up financing and deployment of renewables in most emerging and developing economies, many of which are being left behind in the new energy economy. Success in meeting the tripling goal will hinge on this.”

比罗尔博士表示：“这份报告是 IEA 关于 COP28 能源成果后续工作的第一部分，该工作将持续到 2024 年及以后。” “这是基于我们在 COP28 之前制定的五个关键支柱，涵盖将可再生能源增加两倍、能源效率提高一倍、减少甲烷排放、摆脱化石燃料以及扩大对新兴和发展中经济体的融资。我们将密切关注各国是否兑现承诺并实施适当的政策。”

“This report is the first key instalment of the IEA’s follow-up work on the energy outcomes of COP28 that will continue throughout 2024 and beyond,” Dr Birol said. “This is based on the five key pillars we set out ahead of COP28 and covers tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, cutting methane emissions, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and scaling up financing for emerging and developing economies. We will be following very closely to see whether countries are delivering on their promises and implementing appropriate policies.”

到 2030 年将可再生能源增加三倍所需的资源因国家、地区和技术的不同而存在很大差异。该报告列出了一个加速案例，即更快的政策实施推动可再生能源发电容量增长比主要预测高出21%，这将推动世界走上实现全球三倍承诺的轨道。

What is needed to triple renewables by 2030 varies significantly by country, region and technology. The report lays out an accelerated case in which more rapid policy implementation drives renewable power capacity growth 21% higher than in the main forecast, which would push the world towards being on track to meet the global tripling pledge.

在发达经济体和大型新兴经济体中，这意味着应对脆弱经济环境中的政策不确定性、电网基础设施投资不足以容纳更大份额的可再生能源、繁琐的行政障碍和允许延误等挑战。在其他新兴和发展中经济体，获得融资、强有力的治理和健全的监管框架对于降低风险和吸引投资至关重要，包括在尚无目标和政策的国家制定新的目标和政策。

In advanced and large emerging economies, this would mean addressing challenges such as policy uncertainty in a fragile economic environment, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure to accommodate greater shares of renewables, and cumbersome admin126459646istrative barriers and permitting delays. In other emerging and developing economies, access to finance, strong governance and robust regulatory frameworks are essential to reduce risk and attract investment, including establishing new targets and policies in countries where they do not exist yet.

到 2028 年，美国、欧盟、印度和巴西的太阳能光伏和陆上风电部署量预计将比过去五年增加一倍以上。2023年太阳能光伏组件的价格同比下降近50%，成本降低和快速部署将继续。这是因为，预计到 2024 年底，全球制造能力将达到 1100 吉瓦，大大超过需求。相比之下，由于供应链持续中断、成本上升和许可期限较长，风电行业（中国境外）面临着更具挑战性的环境，需要更多的政策关注。 

Solar PV and onshore wind deployment through 2028 is expected to more than double in the United States, the European Union, India and Brazil, compared with the last five years. Prices for solar PV modules in 2023 declined by almost 50% year-on-year, with cost reductions and fast deployment set to continue. This is because global manufacturing capacity is forecast to reach 1 100 GW by the end of 2024, significantly exceeding demand. By contrast, the wind industry (outside of China) is facing a more challenging environment due to a combination of ongoing supply chain disruption, higher costs and long permitting timelines, which require stronger policy attention. 

该报告还对可再生氢背后的动力进行了现实检验，评估了有多少已宣布的项目可能会继续进行。在这十年全球宣布的使用可再生能源生产氢气的所有项目中，预计到 2030 年只有 7% 的项目能够投产。项目做出投资决策的速度缓慢，承购商的兴趣有限且产量较高。成本导致许多项目进展缓慢。为了充分说服投资者，在宣布雄心勃勃的项目之后，必须出台一致的政策来支持需求。

The report also provides a reality check on the momentum behind renewable-based hydrogen, assessing how many announced projects are likely to go ahead. Of all the projects announced worldwide to use renewables to produce hydrogen this decade, only 7% of the proposed capacity is expected to come online by 2030. The slow pace of projects reaching an investment decision combined with limited appetite from off-takers and higher production costs have led to slower progress on many projects. To fully convince investors, ambitious project announcements will have to be followed by consistent policies supporting demand.

2023年，生物燃料的作用也凸显出来。以巴西和印度为首的新兴经济体预计将在未来五年内推动全球需求的 70%，因为生物燃料开始在航空旅行等难以减少的行业以及作为高污染燃料的替代品方面开始展现其真正潜力。像柴油一样。虽然生物燃料的部署正在加速，但报告显示，这种情况发生的速度还不够快，到 2030 年，需要大幅增加需求，以使生物燃料与净零排放路径保持一致。

In 2023, the role of biofuels has also come to the fore. Emerging economies, led by Brazil and India, are expected to drive 70% of global demand over the next five years as biofuels start to show their true potential in hard-to-abate sectors such as air travel and as a replacement for highly polluting fuels like diesel. While biofuels deployment is accelerating, the report shows that this is not happening quickly enough, with a significant increase required in demand by 2030 needed to align biofuels with a net zero pathway.