Calculation of railway transport capacity in an emergency based on Markov process

A method is proposed to calculate the railway transport capacity in an emergency to support the dispatching work of control centers.The effect of an emergency on section transport capacity is analyzed and the basic method to calculate the transport capacity is presented.The results show that the situation-changing process in emergency is actually a Markov process.The calculation rule is presented based on division of the time segment during which the emergency lasts.The algorithm is designed to calculate the transport capacity of each time segment.The pessimistic strategy and the fuzzy strategy are proposed to determine the computing value of the transport capacity of each time segment,to satisfy the calculating requirements in different occasions.Our study shows that the method is reasonable and practical and the method can be embedded in the train dispatching system to support the operation work in an emergency.