A Preliminary Study on Seismicity and Stages of Seismic Energy Accumulation in Seismotectonic Region

Using seismic parameters, the characteristics of the seismic activity in various seismotectonic regions of Tianshan were studied in this paper. These regions are going through different stages of seismic energy accumulation. Current seismic risk levels of these areas were analyzed synthetically by the tectonic movement rates, as well as the characteristics of the seismic activity and the recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes. We preliminarily studied the characteristics of seismic activity in different seismic energy accumulating stages. The result shows that the characteristics of the seismic activity in various seismotectonic regions of the Tianshan area are influenced, not only by the regional tectonic movement, but also by the energy accumulating stage of various seismic tectonics. In the intense tectonic movement areas, it is important to estimate its stage of energy accumulating in order to predict the upper limit of the potential earthquake magnitude. In the less intense tectonic movement areas, the estimating of the stage of energy accumulation will help us recognize the dangerous level of the potential strong earthquake. The study shows that the seismotectonic regions in southern Tianshan have reached the mid-stage and late-stage of energy accumulation, with a higher seismic activity and thus a higher seismic dangerous level than those in the northern and middle Tianshan. The earthquake risk of southern Tianshan is up to Ms7.0, while that of the middle Tianshan is up to Ms6.0 and that of northern Tianshan is only around Ms5.0 ～ 6.0.