汇率的分析与预测

μU 13%41μ0 3 FEUA 0~.β Df>u°iiFNgNg+"Vol.13,No. 32000 Ae 9 0ABASIC SCIENCES JOURNAL OF TEXTILE UNIVERSITIES Sept. ,2000>aAEμA -01o0e0x2aBicu', 0A-6122(1. EA1-%-A3Ns0° 0|0AEyNSIμ,EA1+ 1:02 710043; 2. 1+ -AO- 1oNgO° i14Ee1Y,EAT+ 1:02710048)0@0曰: 0AExe >DBAD -06-"1% >0E< Tμ13AiA0 -δ16AE >aAEμA 100+. y/" *Ac0。EyeE>/>-A2D10e>0OE< ADf GM(1,1),0=WE》aAET A- μA -c01 C+ EE , 2c00土Ma2a个的,o3δAE >aAEμA0u2a0μ.10%40 E : >AE ;0u2a;0。EyEl)》>m-" ;>EaAEμAO_ EyE/>>-AED10e0o2a1993~ 1998 AeAAO@OeEE AntOμA∈μeE》AE%0t1 1. EμE >ECAkl%10u>AEOμ, EuON%-To3yAENy426OuA2* 9TI40 2> 1a00D0 , sE1038 >aAE6OUAUtaq μA3=EUC+EF.ti 1 1993~ 1998 AeAA0e 0eEE AntOEμWE >aAEie丫1993199419951 99619971998E士WaBoAB (k)1256EμkEaAE x%8. 7628.6198. 3518. 2908.279 68.278 90, EyE/》- EC. _uaYETEU∈μψEσμ0∈ETEU0r2aOμ,OAv∈E"0ox0x∈E"y%oDDWOE° E%G , 0OwEaETAAEUO 2aOμA -k-. 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Ai la, (3)EWEC A-Do μA, 1o Do ADECAe EcμA , Eu001~ AcμAGM(1,1)ALD10>ADECkuEEμA.X(t +△l),x(1) y%° dx/di EC1c -0-1631μA+3W°0δμ, 1i w0Ar.顾+34°δμEx iai≌CNa∞OEy ,WCx+:⑧x= [min{x(t),x(t + Ot)},max{x(t),x(t + O)}].OaNuμATc -0 /63i0:↑@>01c -0-1631:d.x:/dt + a8x= b.(4)00⑧x DE;Om°x>-Ou,0ExIDi IP3E ." εEμA3δζμEy a ,b μuAn01eOμ a ,b. TOE;%u0μ:⑧x出= z出= 0.5xX + 0.5-x2-n), k = 2,3,..n,00DTAEo>02个-0-163i:x(E) + az{出} = b，k = 2,3,..n.[x(8)~「一z{& 17x{3)ATYv=B=a=Lb」_x(M)」e品1060Yv = Ba.9T"Ai 1 μtQOkδμt 202TAD ε AuxaElz .%62[xTDi x200中国煤化工J =ε'ε= min()DHCNMHGE土,0Tc -0-1%3i d.x/dt + a⑧x= b μA2TEyAu d Auxa!x= (B'B)TBTYN, 8x∈[x(t),x(t + Ot)],OE °EμAO≌xC) μA°x- -1631 d:x/dt + axt() = b ODμAvaTe.x出= [x8} - b/a]exp(- at)十b/a,(5)Eu00x+1)= [xc83 一b/a]exp(- ak) + b/a.244-A6~.Bf>U°iiEN8NS+"μU 13 9%4T0Ux+AUN6Eu3E>10-μAμ0k + 1 AuA∞aσ:x21,= 1-。出1的D原AE∈μAEμkEOμECO》. °>0Ey. T00A>aAED0 ADOμ5° *Ac GM(1,1) ALDi,2cx+0u2a. 0ONOex(0) =(x{9 ,x出,x(8),x留,x8 ,x)=(8.762,8. 619,8. 351,8. 290,8. 279 6,8. 2789).qo x<0) x+0》个AO%OE3E,W" x出= > x9 ,μAx() = (x{,x出,x出,出出,出) .=(8.762,17. 381 ,25.732 ,34.022,42. 301 6,50. 580 5).Ej4u0μz出}= 0. 5x(E} + 0. 5xH2n),μA13.0715 1]-z{出1- 21.556 5 1B=-z{出1|=|一29.87701z器} 138.1618146. 441 1 1」0000Y] = (8. 619,8. 351,8.290,8. 279 6,8. 278 9)，B'B =「5 141.280 682 - 149. 107 97- 149. 107 9「a].(B'B)- 'B'YN =「0.009 049 47L8. 633 562 1」0UEC,μAdxl)/dt + 0. 009 049 4x[)= 8. 633 562 1.Ea°x>7DT∈%μAlax(+1) =[x9}一b/a]exp(- ak) + b/a=(8.762一954. 048014 2)exp(- 0. 009049 4k) + 954.048 014 2. (6)0E (6)EM%MEa x出(i = 1,2...,8),A0%46E3E>10- x”) =出一x-1),μAx留=8.21294718,x8=8.13896020，2x8=8.06563975.iE0@, 1999 Ae 10V4E aaED3i AAO@OeEEAtoOμA/%U>aAET≌1 : 8.138 96 ;2000 Ae1u%E laaED3jAAO@OEEAntOμAEW%u>咳AE个1 : 8. 065 64.3 VeaEoOr>AEE00个Ta0δE0μA0° 1i , EaE士qI40U ip 1a0∞μ02"T. OEa -01δ0> a2E0AExe >DoAD -016- ;02 EV4U”AaEaEr)ya iEOE To 34B0001010μ , 2E0A0610 -015-".土TAODpA0_ E/>--*0E< A£DiGM(1,1)E600COB , E62E0A >01eAED10oE60U96OB. >咱AEμAO 2aECE60UE+Ya≥a个μA0u2a. -6ETE6ALDi μAOu 2ajE00;" 38AA0≌0eEE Ant0μA>百AE3∈TANGuQ+EE ,160>216-- 63 AE 10100pWOTE" ,010AU -cEui0 °δ≌e00μACe ;δTA, i10uAENCOP&δEUTE>u, 1-Et%- vATE2h063u , x0≌吖1uA|0Gi , EAntOμA>WAEITAN4μ. 0o E , )师n9601p i0 °6EANp -cEuμuACe ;oTA .00ETuA0u2a0u000 °6μAiEDAE.中国煤化工2j%TA1x:THCNM HG[1] 3μAn, .B1aAn. ED3i0u2a0e 10AF462B[M].40 :0的1GEEAn °6NS3δ°aEc , 1995.180~ 190.[2] μEWUAu. >OEui Iμi3AiA0wkiai[M]. Tae :》30DA1u °6NS3δ°aEc , 1990.(TAx2μU 251 03)(ETYyOμU 244 03)[3] .Bi cu.》aAEuA>OEu AEDiv°0n2a[]. EA1+%- A3Ng∞≈N$+" ,1998,(4):22~24.Analyse and prediction of exchange rateGAO Jun-qi', ZHANG Da-rwei2(1. Dept. of Applied Math. ,Shaanxi Ecnomics &. Trade Inst. ,Xi' an 710043,China;2. The Library ,NWITST ,Xi'an 710048 ,China) .Abstract : By using the analytic method of random time series and the theory of grey sys-tems ,the characteristics of exchange rate were analyzed. The exponential smoothing modeland grey model GM(1,1) were established and in advance, the development trend of ex-change rate was calculated. Besides ,on the gradation of time,it gives a predictive value forthe enterprises to refer to.Key words :exhange rate ;prediction ;exponential smoothing method ;grey model GM(1,1).中国煤化工MYHCNMHG