Formation and utilization of water resources of Tarim River

Val.44No.6SCIENCE IN CHINA( Series E)December 2001Formation and utilization of water resources of Tarim RiverLEI Zhidong(雷志栋) , ZHEN Baolong( 甄宝龙) ,SHANG Songhao(尚松浩y , YANG Shixiu( 杨诗秀) ,CONG Zhentao(丛振涛) ZHANG Fawang(张发旺) ,MAO Xiaohui(毛晓辉尸& ZHOU Haiying(周海鹰尸1. Department of Hydraulic Engineering , Tsinghua University , Beiing 100084 , China ;2. Tarim River Basin Administration , Korla 841000 , China ;Correspondence should be addressed to Lei Zhidong( email : leizhd@ mail. tsinghua. edu. cn ).Received July 3 ,2001AbstractThe Tarim River is a typical inland river in arid area without runoff yield of itself , and water re-sources are all supplied by its headstreams. The method of time series analysis is applied to annual runoffseries of three headstreams , namely the Aksu River , Yarkant River and Hotan River to analyze their dy-namic variations. A model is established to estimate water consumption in the headstream areas. Quantita-tive results indicate that both total annual runoff of headstreams and water consumption in the headstreamareas have an increasing trend. The dynamic trends of annual runoff of hydrologic stations along the main-stream of the Tarim River are also presented to estimate the intermittence drying-up time at each station.Water consumption model of the mainstream area is used to analyze the characteristics of water consump-tion in the upper and middle reaches. It is shown that water consumption in each river reach of the main-stream decreases with the decrement of inflow and increases with human activities .Keywords: Tarim River , formation of water resources , utilization of water resources , water consumption model ,time series analysis.The Tarim River Basin( fig. 1 ), located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in NorthwestChina , is the largest inland river basin in China and a closed hydrologic region with inland water cir-culation and balance. The Tarim River runs through the Tarim Basin between the Tian Mountains andKunlun Mountains and surrounds the Taklimakan Desert from west to east. In history , the Tarim RiverBasin included 9 river systems flowing towards the Tarim Basin and the mainstream of the Tarim Riv-er ,covering an area of about 102x 10* km2 . The Tarim River usually refers to the mainstream fromXiaojiake to the Taitmar Lake with a length of 1321 km. It is a pure dissipative inland river withoutrunoff yield of itself ，and the water resources are all supplied by its headstreams. Nowadays ，onlythree headstreams , namely the Aksu River , Hotan中国煤化工r , supply water to themainstream. Since 1976 , water is transferred fromCNMHGwerreachoftheTarimRiver through the Kuta Trunk Canal . The composition ot water resources ot the Tarim River is given intable 1 .Irrational exploitation of water and land resources can lead to serious ecological and environmentalproblems、The reduction in water supply from headstreams and low-effciency exploitation of waterand landI 讯据in the upper and middle reaches of the Tarim River have also resulted in serious e-SCIENCE IN CHINA( Series E )Vol. 44cological and environmental problems. The end lake , the Taitmar Lake , had dried up and the flowlength had decreased by 266 km. The' Green Corridor" in the lower reach with great significance isnow almost totally destroyed. This becomes a world famous ecological issue21. The focus of theseproblems is the coordination of sustainable development of economy and society with the protection ofecology and environment in headstream areas and mainstream area , and the emphasis is the rationalallocation and high efficient utilization of water resources. Thus it is necessary to research the forma-tion and consumption patterns of the water resources of the Tarim River.Kumalak RiverKorlaBosten Lake⑤Kuta Trunk CanalToxkan Rive@rAksunKongqi RiverAksu River.Tarim RiverLop LakeAtushiXiaojiakeDaxihaizi ReservoirHotap RiverTaitmar LakeKashiTakimakan Desert3Casea+ Hotan①Tongguziluoke❺Alar2 Wuluwati❼Xinquman③Kaqun⑧Yingbazcha④Shaliguilanke面Kala⑤XiehelaFig.1. Sketch map of Tarim River Basin.Table 1 Water resources composition of Tarim River( 1981- -1993 )Inflow ofCompositionItemAksu RiverYarkant RiverHotan RiverKonqi RiverWater quantity 10'm'45.1133.58.0.239.182.12Proportion( % )10074.440.5120.354.70Trend analysis on headstreams inflow , water consumption in the headstream areas and Tarim Riv-er inflowIn the analysis of the formation and dynamic variation of water resources of the Tarim River , em-phasis is put on the three headstreams , and only the, main nunoff vield, branches are considered.Runoff yield areas of headstreams are all in the中国煤化工ff flowing out from themountains is mainly consumed through land evaporati:TYHC N M H Gl part becomes ecologi-cal water consumption of lower reaches and vegetation along the headstreams through desert area , in-cluding lower reach of the Yarkant River with a length of over 100 km and the lower reach of the HotanRiver with a length of over 200 km. The rest part , together with part field drainage , flows to the main-stream of the Tarim River , and eventually transforms to agricultural and ecological water consumptionof the mainer area .No.6FORMATION & UTILIZATION OF W ATER RESOURCES OF TARIM RIVER617Time series analysis method 341 is used to analyze the dynamic trend of headstream inflow. Dueto the impact of determinate and indeterminate factors of meteorology and human activities , the varia-tion of annual runoff is very complex. By applying the combined model of time series analysis , the an-nual runoff series { W, } are decomposed as follows :W,= N,+ P++ St+ ε,(1)where {Nt } and {P: } are determinate trend and periodic item , respectively , and {S, }and {e, } areindeterminate steady stochastic item and residual item , respectively. .In the analysis , Kendall order test is first used to test if there exists an obvious trend of the annu-al runoff series. If it exists , the linear trend can be tested and the trend item {N; } can be obtained .Then subtract trend item {N, }from {W,}. The new series {Wl- N,}is used to test its periodicity ,and the periodic item {P} is described by Fourier series. The series {W- N- P } is describedwith a p-order autoregression model AR( p ) to obtain steady stochastic item {S, }. Finally , the residu-al item {E, } should be independent and stochastic.1.1 Time series analysis on the inflow of headstreams of Tarim RiverTime series analysis method is applied to annual runoff series from 1957 to 1995 of five hydrolog-ic stations at the mountain pass of the three headstreams( fig. 1 ). The trend item N( l ), periodicitem P( t ) and steady stochastic item S( t )of AR( 2 ) model are obtained. Table 2 gives the meanannual runoff and dynamic trend with t= 1 for 1957. Table 2 shows that the annual runoff of rivers o-riginating from the Tian Mountains( branches of the Aksu River ) has an increasing trend , while that ofrivers originating from the Kunlun- Kalakunlun Mountains is steady or has a decreasing trend. Sincethe runoff mainly comes from precipitation and glacier-snow melt water in the mountain area , themechanism of the above trend should be further studied .Table 2 Mean annual runoff and dynamic trend of headstreams of Tarim River( 1957- -1995 )HydrologieMean annualTrend itemVariationNotability at signifi-River systemRiverStationrunof/ 10*m2'M( t)trendcance level a = 5%AksuKumalak RiverXiehela46.3342.49 + 0.1921increasingsignificantToxkon RiverShaliguilanke26.3424. 46+ 0.094tTotal72.67Yarkant River Yarkant RiverKaqun64.6563.51 + 0.057t slightly increasinginsignificantHotanYulongkax River Tonggziluoke22.1824.30- 0.1061decreasingsignifcantKarakax RiverWuluwati21.5422 .06 - 0.026t slightly decreasing43.72Time series analysis of the total annual runoff of the above five stations show that the total annualrunoff has an increasing trend with a linear trend item ofN(t)= 176.77 + 0.216t.(2)The variation and linear trend of the total annua! wpeff ~小m in Fic2.中国煤化工“.1.2Trend analysis on inflow to mainstream of TariTYHCNMHGTime series analysis method is also applied to annual runoft trom 1957 to 1995 of Alar HydrologicStation , the control station of Tarim River mainstream. The results show that the annual runoff of Alarhas a significant decreasing trend :Nt)= 52.37 - 0.321t.(3)Tab厄方数据the measured and linear trend estimated mean anmual values every9 or 10 years,618SCIENCE IN CHINA( Series E )Vol. 44which indicates the mean annual runoff decreased by 8- -10x 10^m3 from the 1950s and 1960s to the1980s and 1990s. As mentioned above , the runoff of the headstreams did not decrease in the same pe-riod. Therefore , the decrease in inflow to the mainstream must result from the increase in water con-sumption in the headstream areas , as will be analyzed below.1.3 Analysis on water consumption in the headstream areas300Besides five main branches of headstreams of theE 250Tarim River shown in fig 1，there are several small200branches in the headstream areas with all runoff con-AAMsumed in the plain oases. Therefore ，these small10branches can be omitted in the analysis of inflow to the0Tarim River. In the following analysis , WRI , the total19551965197519851995 annual runoff of five hydrologic stations of the threeYearheadstreams , will be approximately taken as annual inFig.2. Total annual runoff of five hydrologic stations offlow of headstreams. The difference between WRI andthe three headstreams and its linear trend.WAL , annual runoff of the Alar Station , will be approx-imately taken as total water consumption of the head-stream areas .Table 3 Mean annual runoff of Alar Station from 1957 to 1995Mean annual runoff/ 10*m’PeriodNumber of yearsMeasuredEstimated from linear trend1957- -196549.2750.771966-197547.4447.721976- -198545 .6344.511986- -199541.5041.30Annual runoff of Alar Station can be calculated using the following water balance equation :WAL* = WRI - WRC..(4)In the above equation , the total water consumption of the headstream areas , WRC , consists ofwater consumption by the plain oases of the headstream areas and ecological water consumption of low-er reaches of the Yarkant River and Hotan River. With more inflow from the mountain areas , water di-version to the irrigation area and water consumption in the lower reaches will also be more. As a re-sult , WRC is related to WRI. On the other hand , WRC increases with time due to social and econom-ic development and water and land resources exploitation of the headstream areas. Considering theabove factors , a simple linear model to estimate water consumption in the headstream areas is estab-lished :WRC = K[W!(5)中国煤化工The following equation can be obtained from( 4WAL* =(1- KHYTHCNMHG(6)By adopting the least square method to measured data of WRI and WAL from 1957 to 1995 , val-ues of the coefficients are estimated to be K1=0.702 and K2 = 0.396. Therefore , water consumptionof the headstream areas , WRC* , and annual runoff of Alar Station , WAL* can be calculatedWRC* =0.702WRI + 0.396t ,(t = 1 for year 1957 ),(7)No.6FORMATION & UTILIZATION OF W ATER RESOURCES OF TARIM RIVER619WAL”=0.298WRI - 0. 396t.(8)Eqs. ( 7 ) and( 8 ) are simple models for estimat-'250●Measureding water consumption of the headstream areas and an; 200. Calculatednual runoff of Alar , respectively. Fig. 3 shows the cal-15culated annual water consumption of the headstream ar-100eas with model( 7 ), which is fairly compatible with the0measured values( WRI- WAL ) with the absolute rela-生19551965197519851995tive errors varying between 0.04% and 9.04%. Annu-Yearal runoff of Alar can also be calculated from eq.( 8 )byWRI and I. In contrast with measured annual runoff of Fig. 3. Comparion btwen meaured and alard wa-Alar , the absolute relative errors vary between 0. 11 % ter consumption of the headstream area.and 31.54% , and the average one is 9.89% .Water consumption of the headstream areas varies with total water inflow and increases with time.Considering these two factors , the increasing trend will be more obvious. The trend item of water con-sumption of the headstream areas can be deduced from eqs. ( 2 )and( 7 ),N( t )= 0.702 176.77 + 0.216t )+ 0.396t = 124.09 + 0.548t.(9)The above equation indicates that water consumption of the headstream areas increases by about5500x 10'm' per year in average.2 Trend analysis of annual runoff along Tarim RiverThere are four hydrologic stations along the Tarim River , namely Alar , Xinquman , Yingbazhaand Kala( fig. 1 ). River reach from Alar to Xinquman is the upper part of the upper reach with alength of 189 km , that from Xinquman to Yingbazha is the lower part of the upper reach with a lengthof 258 km , that from Yingbazha to Kala is the middle reach with a length of 398 km , and that fromKala to the Taitmar Lake is the lower reach with a length of 428 km.2.1 Trend analysis of annual runoffTime series analysis is proceeded on annual runoff series from 1957( 1965 for Kala)to 1995 offour hydrologic stations along the Tarim River. The variation trend is given in table 4 and fig 4. The .notability degrees of trend item in the table are all greater than 1 , which indicates that there exists anobvious decreasing trend for all stations along the Tarim River. The decreasing trend can be expressedas M( t )=a+ bt with b < 0. Moreover , the notability degree increases from upper stream to lowerstream. IbI/M 1965 ) in the table refers to the ratio of average runoff decrement per year to the trendrunoff in 1965. Take the trend runoff in 1965 as the base. Then the average runoff decrement per yearincreases from 0.65% for Alar to 3.18% for Kala. That is why river dries up gradually from lowerreach upward with the decrease of inflow.Table 4 Variation trend of ann中国煤化工一StationStarting yearYearsMean anualTren( 1965 )161/N(t=1)ruof/10n2，:YTHC N M H G/10^m’_( 1965)Alar1953945.8752.37-0.321 t1.0149.480.0065Xinquman195738.1246.16-0.402 I1.3842.540.0094Yingbazha29.7338.83-0.45512.0034.740.0131Kala_315.3110.50-0.324 t3.8710.180.0318Notabilig; deeg理the table is defined as | TI/ta2 , where T is the satistics of linear trend test and lan is the critical value of 1-dis-tribution at the given shnifcance level of a= 5%.620SCIENCE IN CHINA( Series E )Vol. 44802.2 Estimation of intermittence drying up time of70the Tarim River6050Due to the decreasing trend of runoff inflow toAlarthe Tarim River and water consumption of river30-: Xinqumanreaches , river will dry up gradually from lower reachYingbazhaupward without any controlling measure. To a certain1955196519751985Kalariver section ，three stages will be passed ，i. e.1995Yearrunoff decreasing stage ，intermittence drying upFg. 4. Amal runo of the Tarimn River mainstraem and is stage and permanent drying up stage. The intermit-decreasing trends.tence drying up refers to unstable regime with runoffat wet year and without runoff at normal or dry year.The variation trends of runoff along the Tarim River are obtained from historical annual runoff and wa-ter consumption regime from 1957 or 1965 to 1995. The intermittence drying up time can be approxi-mately estimated from the above variation trend. Considering the harmonic period of5 a ,10 a( or 9a ,11 a )and 14 a for the annual runoff , intermittence drying up time of the Tarim River under currentconditions is estimated to be 2000- 2020 for Kala ,2050- 2070 for Yingbazha , 2075- -2095 for Xin-quman and 2120- -2140 for Alar.3 Analysis on water consumption of the mainstream area3.1General situation of water consumption of the mainstream areaWater consumption of each river reach of the Tarim River includes river evaporation , seepage andflood overflow , etc. and the last two items mainly transform into water use for vegetation along theriverside. W ater consumption per unit river length is a comparable index indicating the characteristicsand water conveyance capacity of the river course，and topography , geomorphy and vegetation regimeof the flood overflow area. Based on measured runoff data , the mean annual water consumption and u-nit river length of each river reach from 1966 to 1995 are given in table 5.Table 5 Mean annual water consumption and water consumption of unit river length from 1966 to 1995Upper reachUpper andMiddle reachMiddle reachesUpper partLower partTotalRiver reachXinquman-Xinquman-Yingbazha- -Kala-KalaRiver length/km189258447398845Mean annual water consumption/ 10*m'7.858.74.16.59.23.0439.63Mean annual water consumption415339371579469per unit river length/ 10'm2 km~Mean annual water consumption of upper and r中国煤化工1 River was about 40x10*m3 from 1966 to 1995 , and that unit river length iThe mean annual waterTYHCNMHG,consumption unit river length is 370 X 10*m'/km for ulc upper ICaCli aliui s80 X 10*m'/km for themiddle reach , and the latter is 1 .57 times of the former. In view of decreasing water consumption , the .middle reach should be stressed in river regulation.No. 6FORMATION & UTILIZATION OF W ATER RESOURCES OF TARIM RIVER6213.2 Influencing factors and trend analysis of water consumption in the mainstream area3.2.1 Influencing factors of water consumption in the mainstream area.The Tarim River is anatural dissipative river in history. In recent years , the river is influenced by human activities , espe-cially water diversion for reclamation , but the main water consumption remains that by ecological vege-tation. The main factors influencing water consumption of the mainstream of the Tarim River includeriver inflow , river characteristics and human activities .The mainstream of the Tarim River is mainly a wandering stream of wide and shallow style. Theslope and downcutting depth are 1/ 7500 to 1/3700 and2 to4 m in the upper reach , while that in themiddle reach are 1/8000 to 1/5500 and 1 to 3m , respectively. With the increase in water inflow , theevaporation and seepage loss , especially the flood overflow loss increase. Therefore , water consump-tion of a river reach increases with the increase in inflow. Since there exists a decreasing trend ofmainstream inflow ，water consumption in the mainstream area has also a decreasing trend .Inflow to the mainstream is a silt-laden flow . Available data indicate that the mean annual sedi-ment discharge in Alar is 2431 x 10*t. With sediment deposition along the river , it decreases to 1870x 10*t in Xinquman , and the average sediment deposition of 1 km river reach from Alar to Xinqumanis about 2.97 x 10*t. Sediment concentration becomes very low in Kala and river water there is nearlyclear water. With the decreasing inflow , the sediment-carrying capacity reduces , which will result inthe aggradation of riverbed , and consequently result in an increase in flood overflow. In this point ofview , there exists an increasing trend of water consumption.With the increase in population and development of economy , human activities , such as con-struction of canals and reservoirs and diversion of water for irrigation in recent 30 years ,have led to anincrease of water consumption .Based on the above analysis , there exist both increasing and decreasing trend for water consump-tion in the mainstream area. The relationship between water consumption of a river reach and inflow tothis reach can be expressed asWC = kwWX. + hqt.( 10)The first item in the above equation denotes the relation between water consumption and inflow , whichimplies that water consumption decreases with the decrease in inflow. The second item takes the in-creasing trend into account. The above equation can only be applied to specified inflow condition andtime. e.g. if river inflow WX1 is0 or very small , it is obvious that the expression WC= kit is irra-tional. Moreover , the trend of kil can also change with river regulation and management measures .W ater consumption analysis below is based on historical and current conditions .3.2.2 Relationship between water consumption and inflow deduced from runoff trend .Supposethat the annual runoff of Alar , Xinquman , Yingbazha and Kala are WAL, WXQ , WYB and WQL,respectively. Water consumption of a given reach , WC , is the difference in runoff between its upperand lower section. From eq.( 10 ) we have中国煤化工hiwWX| + h{t =(11)MHCNMHGThe empirical cofficients ,kw and hu ，can be douuccuuu uI uciu 11cm of WX1 and WX2 giv-en in table 4. The results for the starting year of 1965 are :upper part of the upper reach :WC = 0. 138WAL+ 0.125t ,( 12)lower part of the upper reach : .WCq = 0.181WXQ + 0.126t ,(13)万方数掘ddle reach :WC3 = 0.702WYB + 0.128t，( 14)622SCIENCE IN CHINA( Series E)Vol. 44upper and middle reach :WC = 0.789WAL+ 0.256t ,( 15)Table 6 gives the measured and calculated values of water consumption of each reach. Based onwater consumption of river reaches and runoff of Alar , runoff of Xinquman , Yingbazha and Kala canalso be calculated. Table 6 shows that the calculated results are in fairly good agreement with mea-sured ones , implying that eq. ( 11 ) is suitable for description of water consumption of river reachesfrom 1966 to 1995.Table 6 Measured and model calculated values of water consumption( 10*m3 )Mean annual water consumptionMean annual runoffPeriodUURLURMRU&MRAlar Xinquman YingbazhaKala(1) (2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)1966- -1975 Measured5.398.2927.7638.4547.4442.0533.769.00Calculated7.368.4324.92 39 .0940.0831 .65，6.738.351976- -1985 Measured8.64.8.6324.43 41.70 | 45 .6336.9828.353.92Caleulated.... 8. 368.77.23.00 40. 2337.2728.505.505.401986一1995 Measured9.519.3019.93 38.74| 41 .5031.9922.692.76Calculated___ 9 .049.13_20.91_ 39 .5332 .4623.33 。2.421.971966- -1995 Measured7.858.7423.04 39 .6344.86.37.0028.275.23Calculated... 8.257.78，22.9..... 39. 61.36.6027.824.875.24The calculated values are .(5)-(1) (5)-(1)(5)-(1)(5)-(4)Remarkcalculated fromeqs.(12)-(15)(2) (2)-(3)UUR ,LUR , MR and U&MR in the above table refer to the upper part of upper reach , lower part of upper reach , middle reach and to-tal of upper and middle reaches , respectively .3.3 Trend and characteristics analyses on water consumption of the mainstream area3.3.1Trend analysis on water consumption of the mainstream area. Table 6 shows that thevariation trends of water consumption for the upper reach and middle reaches are increasing and de-creasing , respectively , while that for upper and lower reaches is steady. As mentioned above , waterconsumption of the mainstream area is the integrated result of decreasing trends and increasing trend.Only through analyses of the two factors can we explain different variation trends for different reaches.In water consumption model( 10 ) , hw WX; expresses the decreasing trend due to the decrease ininflow , while hit expresses the increasing trend due to artificial and natural factors. Table 7 gives thevariation trend of water consumption from 1966 to 1995 , which are estimated using eqs. ( 12 )-(15).Table 7 The trend of mean annual water consumption of each river reach from 1966 to 1995( unit :10*m/a-' )Upper part ofLower part ofthe upper reach the upper reachMiddle reachTotalInfluencing factorsAlarXinqumanYingbazha-Xinqum. - Vindhonh，-Kala-Kala中国煤化工Decrement per year due to inflow decrease443)44365Increment per year due to natural and artifcial factors125(YHCNMHG80Total increment( + ) and decrement(一) per year+ 807/+ 552- 1314+ 25Considering both decrement with the decrease in inflow and increment due to artificial and naturalfactors , the integrated water consumption of the two parts of the upper reach increase about 800 x10+ m' and500插0*m3 per year , respectively , while that of the middle reach decreases about 1300 xNo.6FORMATION & UTILIZATION OF W ATER RESOURCES OF TARIM RIVER62310*m3per year. The total water consumption of upper and middle reaches increases about 25 x 10*m'per year. No matter whether the integrated result is increasing , decreasing or steady，the increment ofwater consumption due to artificial and natural factors cannot be neglected. Therefore , regulation ofthe mainstream and effective management of water resources are imperative in the current situation.3.3.2 Comparison between water consumption of river reaches.W ater consumption unit riverlength ,w= WC/L with L being river reach length , is a comprehensive index indicating the charac-teristics of water consumption. It can be deduced from eqs.( 12) ( 15 ) and expressed in 10*m'/kma as follows :upper part of the upper reach :w1 = 0.000730WAL+ 0. 000661t ,( 16)lower part of the upper reach :w2 = 0.000702WXQ + 0. 000488t ,(17)middle reach :w3 = 0.001764WYB + 0.000472t ,( 18)general equation :w= aWX+ bt.( 19)In the above equation , a = Jw/AWX is the ratio of water consumption unit river length , whichrepresents the ratio of the increment of water consumption to that of inflow. The ratios of the two partsof the upper reach are approximately the same , which shows similar water consumption characteristicsof these two parts. The ratio of the middle reach is 2.4- 2.5 times that of the upper reach , whichshows that water consumption per unit river length of the middle reach is more than twice that of theupper reach at the same inflow. As a result , water loss of the middle reach due to river width andflood overflow is more serious than that of the upper reach.Cofficient b in the above equation represents the increasing trend of water consumption unit riverlength due to artificial and natural impact to the mainstream. The increasing trend is close for differentreaches , with that of the upper part of the upper reach more than other reaches. Considering the im-pact of river deposition to the increase of water consumption in the upper reach , the increase of waterconsumption caused by human activities is more in the middle reach than in the upper reach.A comparison between water consumption of different reaches indicates that the middle reachshould be stressed in the river regulation.4 Conclusions( 1 ) Based on hydrologic data of the headstreams and mainstream of the Tarim River from 1957 to1995 , The variation trend and quantitative results of water resources of the Tarim River are proposed.In view of variation trend , the total inflow of the headstreams increases about 2000x 10^'m' per year ,while the total water consumption of the headstream areas increases about 5000x 10*m' per year. Con-sequently , runoff of Alar decreases about 3000 X 10*'m' per year. The increasing trend of headstreaminflow reduces the decreasing trend of the mainstream inflow .( 2 ) Annual runoff of different stations along the Tarim River has significant decreasing trend. In-termittence drying up time of the Tarim River under中国煤化工ated to be 2000- 2020for Kala ,2050- -2070 for Yingbazha ,2075- -2095CNMH G2140 for Alar .( 3 ) Mean annual water consumption of the upper ana mcdue reacnes or the Tarim River is about40x 10*m' from 1966 to 1995 ,and that of unit river length is about 470x 10'm' . Water consumptionper unit river length is 370x 10* and 580x 10*m3 for the upper reach and middle reach , respectively ,and the latter is about 1.57 times the former. In view of decreasing water consumption , the middlereach shodAdIBE ressed in river regulation.624SCIENCE IN CHINA( Series E )Vol. 44( 4 ) Water consumption of the mainstream area decreases with the decrease in inflow and increas-es with human activities. Under current condition with decreasing inflow to the mainstream , water con-sumption of the upper reach increases about 1300 X 10* m' per year , that of the middle reach decreasesabout 1300x 10'm' per year , and that of the upper and middle reaches has no significant changes .( 5 ) The increasing trend of water consumption of the upper and middle reaches due to human ac-tivities , which is about 4000 X 10* m' per year , cannot be neglected. Regulation of the mainstream andeffective management of water resources are imperative in the current situation.Acknowledgements 'This work was supported by Slate Key Project of the 9th Five- Year Plan( Grant No. 96-912-02-02 )and the Spe-cial Funds for State Major Basic Research Project( Grant No. G1999043500 ).References1. Bedford ,D.P. , Interational management in the Aral Sea Basin , Water Intemational ,1996 ,21(2):63- -69.2. Mao ,D. , Water Resources , Environment and Management of the Tarim Basin( in Chinese ) , Bejjing : China Environmental SciencePress , 1998.3. Sudhaker ,S. M. , Wu,S. M. , Time Series and System Analysis with Applications ( in Chinese ), Beijjing : Mechanical IndustryPress , 1988 .4. Yang ,W. ,Gu L. ,Time Series Analysis and Dynamic Data Modeling( in Chinese ) , Beijing : Bejjing Institute of Technology Press ,1986.中国煤化工MYHCNMHG