Scenario analysis of low carbon development in Tianjin, China

Ecological Economy (2010)6:2-20Climate ChangeScenario analysis of low carbon development in Tianjin, ChinaZHANG Fa-shu 2，SUN Zhen-qing，JIANG Dong-mei 1.2 ，YANG Zheng-jingTIAN Dong-lang，SHI Hai-yan1. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P. R. China2. Instiute of Low Carbon Economy, Tsinghua Universiy, Beijing 100084, P. R. China3. School of Economy and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technologv, Tianjin 300222, P R. China4. Tianjin Municipal Comitte of Development and Reform, Tianjin 300040, P R. ChinaAbstract: Low-carbon economic development has become a fundamental approach to coordinating economic de-velopment cand carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financialcenter of North China, Tianjin's energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emissionfrom fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 1 in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the backgroundof global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions dur-ing 2020-2030, which will inevitably reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormousy. Tianjin should makedeployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carboneconomic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing en-ergy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin's future CO2 emissionswill continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin shouldget ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology candtalent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional mechanisms conducive to low-carbon developmentfrom now on, starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technol-ogy research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new andrenewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.Keywords: Scenario analysis; Low-carbon development; Carbon productivity; Tianjin1 Introductionon natural and human environments are emerging,although many are difficult to discern due to adap-Global climate change has become a scien- tation and non-climatic driverstific fact with no dispute. Warming of the climateGlobal climate change mainly results from hu-system is unequivocal, as is now evident from ob- man beings activities which emit greenhouse gasesservations of increases in global average air and (GHGs). The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeand ice, and rising global mean sea level". It is (IPCC) affirms the causality between human-be-likely that anthropogenic warming has had dis- ing activities and global warming with unheard-ofcernible influence on many physical and biologicalaffirmative tone . International Energy Agencysystems. Other effects of regional climate changes (IEA) warned that atmospheric concentrations ofgreenhouse gases at the end of this century will bedoubled relative to the current level, which wouldReceived Oct. 15, 2009; Accepted Nov. 26, 2009result in average global temperature rise 6°C, if* Corresponding author.existing fossil fuel-based economic developmentE-mail address: jiangdongmei@mail.tsinghua.edu.cnAuthor: ZHANG Fa-shu (1967- ), male, postdoctoral researchmodel中国煤化工rature rises 5°fellow, specialized in energy-environment-economy and cli-C-6°C,_of global GDPmate change.and theYHCNMH G: than 10% of◎2010 Ecological Economy (tp://xb. suse. edu.cn/)Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20GDP[4.improving energy conversion and utilization effi-As the ultimate solution to climate change, theciency to conserve energy, developing carbon-freecurrent increasing trend of global emissions must or low carbon energy sources such as renewablebe reversed to a decreasing trend in the early of thisenergy, nuclear energy and natural gas to lowercentury, and thereafter emissions need to be reduced CO2 emission factor of energy consumption 9. Into less than half of the current level in the long runaddition, the development of carbon capture and. Mitigation efforts in the future 20 to 30 years storage (CCS) technology combining with cleanwill be very important for realizing lower stabili-coal use is also a technology option of CO2 emis-zation concentration level . Developed countries sion reduction. European Union (EU) coordinatesproposed the global long-term emission reduction actions of its member states through establishingtargets of controlling the global surface tempera- consistent GHG emission reduction targets agreedture rise of no more than 2°C before the industrial within the region in the framework of transition torevolution, stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gaslow carbon economy, with EU Emissions Tradingconcentrations at 450 ppm CO2e, reducing global Scheme (EUETS) as major carrier. Measures takengreenhouse gas emissions in 2050 at least 50% be-mainly are to promote upgrading and shifting tradi-low that in 1990, and committing at least 80% re- tional industries, to develop new energy industriesduction in developed countries, which is increas-with great efforts, to improve carbon trade market,ingly becoming the worldwide mainstream.to vigorously promote global process of controllingThe long-term target of global GHG emissionCO2 emission, and to establish carbon finance ser-reduction will seriously compress the room for fu- vice system to become the center of global carbonture carbon emissions. Assumed to achieve the tar-financial service ".get of reducing global GHG emissions in 2050 atThe trend of low carbon economy will lead toleast 50% below that in 1990, global CO2 emission new global economic, trade and technology com-per capita in 2050 would be less than 2 t”. This petition, while carbon emission intensity is becom-could become a hard constraint of China's eco-ing a new trade barrier. And advanced low carbonnomic development, and certainly pose more and energy technologies is also becoming forefront andmore severe challenges on Tianjin.focus of global scientific and technological inno-Under the background of global responding to vation and technological competitiveness. Tianjinclimate change, the world is experiencing an eco- should thoroughly understand the challenges andnomic and social development transformation, theopportunities of global response to climate changecore of which is to develop low carbon economy. and shift to low carbon economy of the world,Low carbon economy is an economic development adapting to the trend of economic and technologi-model featured with low emissions, low consump- cal change, developing low carbon economy withtion and low pollution; its core is to improve energygreat efforts, calmly dealing with new patterns ofefficiency, improve energy structure, optimize eco- future economic, trade and technology competition.nomic structure and promote social transformation;At present, Tianjin is vigorously promotingits essence requires innovation of low carbon tech- energy conservation and emission reduction andnology and innovation of institution driving eco-striving to change the mode of economic develop-nomic and social development, pushing the world ment, but the characteristics of supporting rapidtoward low carbon society 0. Core indicator of loweconomic growth by high growth of energy con-carbon economy is carbon productivity defined as sumption is still very evident. The per capita CO2the ratio of carbon emissions to GDP, which is theemission of Tianjin is increasing rapidly, facingreciprocal of carbon intensity. The main ways to in- severe situation in responding to climate change.crease carbon productivity include transiting devel-Low cat中国煤化τIt is not only aopment mode and consumption patterns to reduceprocessfforts, but alsoenergy demand of economic and social activities，an urgerMYHcNMHGkcrrentyI0.3Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-20It is necessary for Tianjin to further increase efforts GHGs inventory for reporting to UNFCCC 17.of energy conservation and emission reduction, andAccording to 2006 Guidelines, GHGs emissionsto accelerate developing new and renewable energy and eliminations are divided into sectors, each sec-and strategically adjusting economic structure. Thetor comprising a set of interrelated process, sourcestrend of rapid growing energy demand and CO2 and sinks. This paper estimates the status of CO2emissions in Tianjin have to be curbed in improv- emissions due to energy consumption in 2008 anding the quality and efficiency of economic growth.analyzes those in the future (2010, 2015 and 2020);On premise of ensuring realization of economichereinto, energy consumption is divided into energyand social development objectives, future economic transformation and end-use consumption.and social development model and correspondingCO2 emissions from energy consumption can bepolicy choices will have significant impacts on en- estimated as Zhang，in which energy consump-ergy demand and corresponding CO2 emissions.tions in 2008 of every sector are selected from En-Different development paths may lead to larger and ergy Balance of Tianjin 2008 19, while those in thelarger discrepancy of future energy demand and future are determined by scenario analysis; averagecorresponding CO2 emissions. The most important low calorific values are selected from China Energycomponent responsible for about 80% of all cli- Statistical Yearbook 2008 20; Carbon emission co-mate warming is increased emissions of CO2 [121.efficients are selected from 2006 IPCC GuidelinesThis paper studies Tianjin's state of socio- economic. for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 17].development, energy consumption and correspond-ing CO2 emissions before 2020 by scenario analy- 2.2 Scenario analysis of CO2 emissions in futuresis, analyzes the driving forces of future CO2 emis-sions, and probes into low carbon developmentCO2 emissions in the future are estimated bypath ofTianjin.scenario analysis, which investigates correspond-ing energy consumption and CO2 emissions under2 Research methoddifferent policies and measures. Main steps of theresearch are (1) to define the main driving forces2.1 Estimation of CO2 emissions related to energyinfluencing CO2 emissions in the future, such asconsumptionpopulation, social economy, industrial structure,and industry structure and technology level; (2) toUnited Nations Framework Convention on Cli- judge the trends of industry structure, industrialmate Change (UNFCCC) 5 requests the Parties to structure and energy structure adjustments; (3) toadopt GHGs inventory methods approved by the determine GDP and energy intensity levels by sec-Conference of the Parties (COPs), analyze sources tors, obtaining energy demands by sectors; (4) toand sinks of GHGs, establish and implement poli- distribute end-use energy demand to various energycies and measures to mitigate climate change.categories; (5) to calculate energy demand of trans-Requested by UNFCCC, IPCC published meth-formation, and determine the total energy demandodologies such as Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines in the future; and (6) to estimate CO2 emissions infor National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 14, Goodthe future, combining energy consumption and car-Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in bon emission coefficients.National Greenhouse Gas Inventories ['5] and GoodPractice Guidance for Land-use, Land- use Change 3 Scenario analysis of future CO2 emissionsand Forestry [16), and published 2006 IPCC Guide-lines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 7] 3.1 Energy activity analysis(hereinafter 2006 Guidelines) to update. They pro-中国煤化工vide methodologies approved by intermational com- 3.1.I Entmunity, which can be used by countries, to estimateTheMYHCNMHhjin City wasZhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20132.66 Mtce and energy sent-out is 79.11 Mtce tion in 2008 [19, 21.with net energy moved-in 53.55 Mtce in 2008“9,The proportion of energy consumption of trans-in which the proportion of net coal moved-in is port, storage and post sector as to the final energy54.7%, and that of relatively clean energy was low,consumption increased earlier and decreased laterwith that of oil, natural gas and electricity 23.0%，[19. 22, due to the change of the proportion of the4.2% and 8.1% respectively. This is one of the rea-secondary industry. The proportion of energy con-sons for large CO2 emissions in Tianjin. More clean sumption of urban residents increased earlier andenergy should be moved in, and the proportion ofdecreased later [9,221, also due to the change of thecoal moved-in should be decreased in the future.proportion of the secondary industry. The propor-tion of energy consumption of rural residents de-3.1.2 Energy consumptioncreased 19.22, due to the change of the proportion(1) The total and per capita energy consumption of the secondary industry and urbanization.The total energy consumption and per capita(3) Primary energy consumptionenergy consumption in Tianjin increased annuallyPrimary energy consumption in Tianjin mainlyduring 1990-2008, and have increased more rap- includes raw coal, cleaned coal, crude oil and nat-idly since 2000The total energy consump- ural gas. The proportion of coal decreased fromtion increased up to 53.64 Mtce from 20.38 Mtce70.4% in 1995 to 68.4% in 2008, and the propor-in 1990 and 27.94 Mtce in 2000, increasing 163% tion of high-quality energy (oil and natural gas)and 5.5% annually relative to 1990, and 92% andwas increasing 1922..8.5% relative to 2000. Energy consumption perThe coal was moved in from other provincescapita increased up to 4.56 tce from 2.20 tce inand mainly was used to energy transformation sec-1990 and 2.79 tce in 2000, increasing 108% and tor. The proportion of the final coal consumption is4. 1% annually relative to 1990, and 63% and 6.3% too high, which directly leads to larger CO2 emis-relative to 2000.sion. In 2008, coal consumption of energy trans-(2) Industrial structure of energy consumptionformation sector and the final consumption wasAs to industrial structure of energy consump- 25.23 Mt and 9.56 Mt, accounting for 72.4% andtion in 2008, the proportion of transformation in-27.4% respectively in the total coal consumptionput was 1.46%, and those of loss, the primary in-dustry, the secondary industry, the tertiary industryThe crude oil was mainly used to energy trans-and residential consumption were 2.3%, 1 .45%，formation sector to refine finished petroleum prod-67.24%, 16.31% and 11.25% respectively.ucts. In 2008, crude oil consumption of petroleumAs to the final energy consumption of years refineries was 7.63 Mt, accounting for 96.5% inin Tianjin, the proportion of the primary industry the total crude oil consumption 9.was small and decreased annually; the secondaryThe natural gas was mainly used to industry,industry dominated the energy consumption, with residential consumption, wholesale, retail tradethe proportion decreased rapidly during latter halfand hotel, restaurants, and thermal power. In 2008,of 1990s while presented increasing trend since natural gas consumption was 1,684 Mm', hereinto,2000; the trend of the proportion of the tertiary in-energy transformation, loss and the final consump-dustry changed opposed to that of the secondary tion accounting for 4.2%, 3.5% and 92.8% respec-industry; the proportion of residential consump- tively [19.tion increased rapidly during latter half of 1990swhile presented small decreasing trend since 2000.3.1.3 Final energy consumptionEnergy consumptions of the primary industry,(1) The primary industrythe secondary industry, the tertiary industry andThe中国煤化工rf farming, for-.residents accounted for 1.5%, 69.9%, 16.9% and estry,_Ind water con-11.7% respectively as to the final energy consump- servancAYH.CN MH Gto 0.78 Mtee5Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-20(equal value) in 2008. Energy type changed inces- tions of raw coal and gasoline decreased, whilesantly, dominated by raw coal, gasoline, diesel oil those of diesel oil, natural gas, heat and electricityand electricity which accounted for 16.9%, 8.1%，increased 19,2.29.2% and 45.5% respectively in 2008 19, 21.The final energy consumption of other tertiary(2) The secondary industryindustry changed greatly and increased later, withThe final energy consumption of manufactur-2.69 Mtce in 2008. Energy type changed inces-ing constantly increases up to 34.67 Mtce in 2008. santly, dominated by raw coal, gasoline, diesel oil,Energy type change incessantly, dominated by rawheat and electricity, which accounted for 16.4%,coal, cleaned coal, coke, electricity, heat, natural 8.0%, 18.9%, 11 .9% and 42.9% respectively ingas, diesel oil, fuel oil and other petroleum prod-2008. The proportions of raw coal decreased,ucts, which accounted for 15.5%, 2.4%, 20.2%，while those of gasoline, diesel oil, heat and elec-34.2%, 6.5%, 3.4%, 1.7%, 1.1% and 7.9% respec-tricity increased 19.2212tively in 2008. The proportion of raw coal, crude(4) Residentsoil, fuel oil decreased, while those of cleaned coal,The residential living standard improved con-coke, natural gas, other petroleum products, elec-stantly, with increasing per capita floor space oftricity and heat increased[19, 22]urban residential buildings, per capita living floorThe final energy consumption of constructionspace of rural residents and per capita electric con-decreased first and increased later, with 1.40 Mtce sumption for living of all residentsin 2008. Energy type change incessantly, domi-The final energy consumption of urban resi-nated by raw coal, gasoline, diesel oil and electric- dents increased constantly, with 5.11 Mtce inity, which accounted for 6.4%, 9.7%, 64.5% and2008. Energy type changed incessantly, domi-16.9% respectively in 2008. The proportion of raw nated by raw coal, gasoline, diesel oil, natural gas,coal increased first and decreased later, and the pro- heat and electricity, which accounted for 2.7%,portion of gasoline decreased, while those of diesel 11 .9%, 4. 1%, 9.8%, 46.3% and 24.8% respectivelyoil and electricity increased [9.221.in 2008. The proportions of raw coal decreased(3) The tertiary industrygreatly and that of heat increased greatly, whileThe transportation volume of Tianjin increasedthose of gasoline, diesel oil, natural gas and elec-constantly, especially since 2000 (21. The final en- tricity increased a little 19.221.ergy consumption of transport, storage and postThe final energy consumption of rural residentsalso increased constantly, with 3.93 Mtce in 2008.changed lttle, with 0.92 Mtce in 2008. EnergyEnergy type changed incessantly, dominated by type changed incessantly, dominated by raw coal,gasoline, kerosene, diesel oil, fuel oil, electricity gasoline, PLG and electricity, which accountedand raw coal, which accounted for 20.7%, 5.6%，for 29.8%, 5.2%, 10.7% and 51.9% respectively37.8%, 22.9%, 9.2% and 3.4% respectively inin 2008. The proportions of raw coal and PLG de-2008. The proportion of raw coal decreased con- creased, while those of gasoline and electricity in-stantly, and the proportion of gasoline, diesel oil creased 19. 2?.and fuel oil greatly changed firstly and changed lit-tle later, while that of kerosene increased, and that3.1.4 Transformationof electricity changed little 1922.The inputs of transformation of thermal powerThe final energy consumption of wholesale，increased constantly, with 13.14 Mtce in 2008. En-retail trade and hotel, restaurants increased con- ergy type input changed incessantly, dominated bystantly, with 2.12 Mtce in 2008. Energy typeraw coal which accounted for 97.8% in 2008. Thechanged incessantly, dominated by raw coal, gaso- proportion of natural gas generation was low, thatline, diesel oil, natural gas, heat and electricity,is to say,中国煤化工carbon energywhich accounted for 11.7%, 5.3%, 12.4%, 17.7%， with lowich led to high9.7% and 38.7% respectively in 2008. The propor- emissionMHCNMHGZhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20The inputs of transformation of heating supply national policies, laws and regulations and localincreased constantly, with 5.20 Mtce in 2008. En-measures in Tianjin are considered, while potentialergy type input changed incessantly, dominated by or possible implemented polices and measures inraw coal which accounted for 99.3% in 2008.the future are not considered.(1) Population and economic development3.1.5 Energy intensityAccording to goals set by 11" Five-Year Popu-The energy intensity decreased constantly with lation Development Plan of Tianjin, the populationtechnology improvement, energy conservation andof entire city will be 11.5 million in 2010. How-emission reduction. During 1995-2008, accord- ever, this number was exceeded in 2008, arrivinging to 2005 constant price, the energy intensity at 11.76 million. Under BAU scenario, the popula-decreased from 2.28 tce/10* yuan to 0.94 tce/10* tion in 2010, 2015 and 2020 will reach 12.70 mil-yuan, decreasing 58.6% with annual decrease lion, 13.85 million and 15.00 million respectively.6.6%; that of the primary industry decreased from Tianjin's economy kept the trend of continually1.04 tce/10* yuan to 0.64 tce/10* yuan, decreas- rapid and healthy development during 11 Fiveing 38.8% with annual decrease 3.7%; that of the Year Plan period. It is predicted that the growthmanufacturing decreased from 3. 46 tce/10* yuan rate of GDP will decrease, but GDP will grow rap-to 1.19 tce/10"yuan, decreasing 65.7% with annualidly and persistently (Table 1).decrease 7.9%; that of the construction decreased(2) Industrial structurefrom 1.20 tce/10* yuan to 0.60 tce/10* yuan, de-Tianjin bears huge pressure in the adjustmentcreasing 50.3% with annual decrease 5.2%; and of industrial structure. It is predicted that the pro-that of the tertiary industry decreased from 0.97 portion of the primary industry will continue totce/10* yuan to 0.39 tce/10* yuan, decreasing 59.5% decrease, the proportion of the secondary industrywith annual decrease 6.7% 1921-21.will decrease and that the proportion of the ter-tiary industry will increase in the future. The pro-3.2 Scenario settingportions of manufacturing and construction willchange within the secondary industry (Table 2).To explore the trend of future energy consump-(3) Sectoral energy intensitytion and CO2 emissions of Tianjin, this paper adoptsIt is predicted that Tianjin's sectoral energyscenario analysis method internationally used. Sce- intensity will decrease in the future along withnarios setting in this paper includes business as the improvement of technology, the fulfillmentusual(BAU) scenario and mitigation scenario. BAUscenario comprehensively considers national energyTable 1Population and GDP: BAUpolicy, laws and regulations and local measures inPopulation GDP (illion yuan, Annual growthTianjin. Its purpose is to understand the benchmark(M person) 2005 constant price) rate of GDP (%)of CO2 emission in Tianjin. Mitigation scenario2010 12. 70764.5816.0%shows possible policies and measures adopted by201513.851,497.9614.0%Tianjin to respond to climate change, and their ef-202015.002,884.19fects on energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Itpurpose is to provide reference to various policesTable 2and measures being considered at present.Industrial structure (%): BAU3.2.1 BAU scenarioYearPrimarySecondary industryTertiaryBAU scenario shows energy demand and CO2industry Manufacturing Construction Total industryemissions of Tianjin in the future, given the sce-54.344.0中国煤化工nario of economic growth, population, industrial。 47.71.1structure and energy structure. In this scenario,MYHCNMHG42.756.67Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-20Table 3Sectoral energy intensity (Int., tce/10* yuan, 2005 constant price) and consumption (Con, Mtce): BAUSecondary industryResidentialPrimary industryTertiary industryYearManufacturingConstructionTotalconsumptionInt.Con.20100.630.821.1644.550.591.901.1246.450.390.587.322015 0.611.10 1.0269.640.57 3.34 1.02 72.98 0.36 27.620.7610.5820200.590.98 110.680.56 5.960.95 116.64 0.340.9714.62Table 4Energy structure (%): BAUPrimary energyEnd-use energyCoal Crude oil Natural gasCoal Coke Petroleum Natural gas Heat Elctricity Others62.133.315.2 13.423.53.60.228.94.7201560.334.75.13.4 13.226.0.828.8.158.636.15..11.628.43..328.3.5of polices of energy conservation and reduction of advance generation of electricity using living gar-emissions; the per capita residential consumption bage, straw, etc., and the proportion of new andwill increase incessantly along with the improve-renewable energy consumption in the total energyment of people's living standard. Hence, sectoral consumption of Tianjin exceeding 1% in 2010.energy consumption and the total energy consump-Under BAU scenario, it is predicted that the struc-tion in the future are obtained (Table 3).tures of primary energy and final energy consump-(4) Energy structuretion of Tianjin are shown as Table 4. Hereinafter,In the near future, China's energy supply will energy structure adjustments under BAU are con-be continually dominated by coal, and that of sidered in detail.Tianjin is without exception. The Tianjin 11" Five-1) Ratio of the final energy consumption to theyear Plan of Energy Development puts forward total energy consumptionthe goals of energy development, further control-The proportions of the final energy consump-ling the total demand of coal, advancing to build tion to the total energy consumption rise and fallsources of electricity, heat and gas, the proportionin the past. The proportion will increase slowly;of coal, crude oil and natural gas in primary en- thereby we can get the final energy consumption inergy consumption structure being 53.5%, 41.6% the future (Table 5).and 4.9% respectively, and the proportion of elec-2) Structure of the final energy consumptiontricity, heat, coal, liquid energy, gas energy in theBased on the sectoral energy consumption andfinal energy consumption structure being 27.4%，the total final energy consumption, the sectoral39.7%，11.5%, 13.4% and 3.4% (hereinto natural final energy consumption in the future can be ob-gas 2.6%) respectively in 2010. The 11 Five- YearPlan of Tianjin Energy Development also puts for-Table 5ward that Tianjin should make better use of advan-Final energy consumption (Mtce): BAUtaged terrestrial heat resources, adopt advancedTotal energyFinal energyRatio of finalheat pump technology and realize step use and cir-consumption consumptionculation development of terrestrial heat resources中国煤化工96.7%to use them scientifically and reasonably, make the98.2%best use of wind resources, develop wind power,MHCNMH G .98.5%Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20tained, and the industrial structure of the final en- tiary industry, the proportions of transportation,ergy consumption in the future can be obtainedbusiness and others changed more in the latter of(Table 6). Hereinto, the proportion of the primary 1990s, and have been stabilized since 2000. It isindustry will continue decreasing, that of the sec-predicted that the proportions of transportation andondary industry will incessantly decrease but still business will increase slightly, while that of otherspossess domination status, and those of the ter-will decrease slightly in the future. Thus, the finaltiary industry and residential consumption willenergy consumption of transportation, businessincrease.and others in the future can be obtained (Table 8).Based on the final energy consumption of man-In the residential final energy consumption ofufacturing and construction, the structure of theTianjin, the proportion of urban residents was bigfinal energy consumption of the secondary indus- and increased incessantly, while that of rural resi-try in the future can be obtained (Table 7). In the dents was small and decreased incessantly. It issecondary industry, the proportion of manufactur-predicted that the proportion of urban residentsing will decrease slightly but still possess its domi- will increase slightly, while that of rural residentsnant status, while that of construction will increasewill decrease slightly. Thus, the final energy con-slightly.sumption of urban and rural residents in the futureIn the final energy consumption of the ter-can be obtained (Table 9).Table 6The final energy consumption (Mtce) and the industry structure: BAU201020152020ConsumptionRatioPrimary industry0.821.3%1.101.0%1.20 .0.6%Secondary industry44.2567.7%71.0164.4%113.9061.3% .Tertiary industry19.8%27.6225.0% .56.0230.2%Residential7.3211.2%10.589.6%14.627.9%Total65.35100%110.30185.74Table 7The final energy consumption (Mtce) and the structure in the secondary industry: BAUIndustry42.3595.7%67.6695.3%107.9394.8%Construction1.904.3%3.344.7%5.965.2%113.89Table 8The final energy consumption (Mtce) and the structure in the tertiary industry: BAU1.Transport, storage and post5.8545.1%12.6345.7%25.8446.1%2. Wholesale, retail trade and4.9238.0%10.5438.2%21.5538.5%hotel, restaurants中国煤化工3.Other2.1916.9%4.415.4%12.9627.61.MYHCNMH G9Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-203) Fuel mix of the final energy consumptiondustry, the secondary industry, the tertiary industryFuel mix of the final energy consumption of and residents in the future will continue to adjustTianjin changed incessantly. It is predicted that (Table 10-Table 18). Thus, the sectoral final energyfuel mix of energy consumption of the primary in- consumption by fuels can be obtained.Table 9The final energy consumption (Mtce) and the structure in residents: BAU20102012020ConsumptionRatioUrban6.2485.3%9.1886.8%12.8387.8%Rural1.0814.7%1.4013.2%1.7912.2%Total7.32100% .100%14.62Table 10Fuel mix of the final consumption in agriculture sector: BAUYearRaw coal GasolineKeroseneDiesel oilOther petroleum productsElectricity (equal value)15.7%7.9%0.2%46.5%201512.7%7.4%0.1%30.6%49.0%9.7%6.9%31.6%51.5%Table 11Fuel mix of the final consumption in industry sector: BAUYear Raw coal Cleaned coal Coke Coke oven gas Other gas Crude oil Gasoline Kerosene Diesel oil Fuel oil2010 16.4%2.6%20.4%1.0%0.5%0.7%1.5%2015 14. 1% .3.1%20.9% .0.4%2020 11 9%3.6%21.4%Table 12Fuel mix of the final consumption in industry sector: BAU (continued)Yaer PLG Refinery gas Natural gas Other petroleum products Other coking products Heat Electricity Other energy2010 0.3%1.0% .3.5%8.0%6.6% 34.6%2015 0.3%3.7%8.2%0.5% .6.9% 35.6%2020 0.3%4.0%8.5%7.1% 36.6%Table 13Fuel mix of the final consumption in construction sector: BAUYear Raw coal Gasoline Kerosene Dieseloil Fuel oil PLG Natural gas Other petroleum products_ Heat Electricity2010 1.8%4.4%0.0%64.9% 0.1% 0.1%17.6%2015 8.8% ,3.9%65.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%0.5% 20.1%2020 5.8%3.4%66.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%0.5922.6%Table 14Fuel mix of the final consumption in transport, storage and post sector: BAUYear .Raw coalGasolineKerosene Diesel oilFuel oil Other petroleum productsHeat Electricity20.9%5.7%37.6%22.9% .中国煤化工9.4%0152.4%5.9%37.1%22.9%9.9%1.6%21.9%6.2%36.6%22. 9%fYHCNMH G10.4%Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20Table 15 .Fuel mix of the final consumption in wholesale, retail trade and hotel, restaurants sector: BAUYearRaw coal Gasoline Kerosene Diesel oil Fuel oilPLGNatural gas Heat Electricity11.4%7.8%0.2%2.0%1 1.1%22 .2%20159.4%6.8%36.2%11.6%10.4%23.2%20207.4%5.8%37.2%12.1%10.9% .24.2% .Table 16 .Fuel mix of the final consumption in other tertiary industry: BAURaw coal .GasolineKeroseneDiesel oilNatural gasHeatElectricity201020.5%0.1%19.1%1.0%0.5%4.0%43.1%8.0%19.6%5.0%43.6% .15.5%12.6%20.1%6.0%44.1%Table 17Fuel mix of the final consumption in urban residents: BAURaw coal3.6%11.1%4.2%9.9%46.4%24.9%2.4%11.3% .4.4%10.2%46.6%25. 1%1.1%4.7%46.9% .25.4%Table 18Fuel mix of the final consumption in rural residents4) The final electricity consumption, transpor-sector: BAUtation and distribution loss, external and renewableYear Raw coalGasoline_ Dieseloil_ PLG Electricity electricity2010 29. 3%5.4%2.5% 10.5% 52.3%Based on the sectoral final energy consump-2015 28.0% 5.9%2.7% 10.0% 53.3%tion by fuels in the future, the final electricity con-26.8%4%3.0% 9.5% 54. 3%sumption can be obtained by addition (Table 19).The proportion of transportation and distributionTable 19Proportion of electricity in & out, generation & loss inloss in Tianjin final electricity consumption wasthe final consumption: BAUonce unstable, but decreasing in recent years. It is20102015 2020predicted the proportion will continue to decrease.Energy from other provinces27.0% 28.5% 30.0%Considering the proportion of external electricityEnergy to other provinces0.0% .0.0% 0.0%in Tianjin electricity supply will possibly furtherincrease, it is assumed that the proportion of exter-Loss5.5%5.3% 5.0%nal electricity will reach 30% in 2020 under BAURenewable energy generation3.5% 6.0%Thermal power77.5% 73.3% 69.0%scenario. The proportion of the renewable energygeneration in the final electricity is assumed to in-Table 20crease in the future. Hence, the proportion of theElectricity in & out, generation & loss (Mtce): BAUthermal power in the final electricity will decreasein the future, and the volume of thermal power inFinal consumption20.0634.0257.46the future can be calculated (Table 20).From other provinces5.429.6917.245) Fuel mix of thermal powerTo other provinces0.00Fuels used for thermal power are dominated1.101.792.88by raw中国煤化工rifficult for th0.201.193.45fuel mix,hat fuel mix of15.5524.9239.65YHC N M H Ghange slightlyZhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-20(Table 21). Thus, the final energy consumption in the final heat consumption will also decrease.used for thermal power by fuels in the future can Thus, the volume of heating supply in the futurebe obtained.can be obtained (Table 22).6) Final heat consumption and transportation7) Fuel mix of heating supplylossFuels used for heating supply are dominated byBased on the sectoral final energy consump- raw coal in Tianjin, and it is dificult for this fueltion by fuels in the future, the final heat consump- mix to change. It is predicted that fuel mix of heat-tion can be obtained by addition. The proportioning supply in the future will change slightly (Tableof heat transportation loss in the final heat con- 23). Thus, the final energy consumption used forsumption was once unstable, but decreasing in re-heating supply by fuels in the future can be ob-cent years. It is predicted the proportion will con- tained.tinue to decrease. The proportion of heating supply3.2.2 Mitigation scenarioTable 21In order to mitigate CO2 emissions, TianjinFuel mix of thermal power: BAUneeds to adopt more measures to control growthRaw Coke oven Other Natural Otherof energy demand. This paper adds“mitigationcoalgas_gas_ energyscenario”to explore some policies and measures.2010 97 .8%0.9%0.7%0.2%Macro-economy and population in mitigation sce-201597.7%0.3%0.8nario is the same as those in BAU scenario. Poli-202097.6%0.8%cies and measures included in mitigation scenarioare as follows.Table 22(1) Industrial structure adjusmentHeat consumption, heating supply and loss (Mtce): BAUOn the basis of BAU scenario, the strength of2010industrial structure adjustment is further increasedFinal consumption6.3010.3116.69under mitigation scenario, with the proportions ofLoss0.020.03the tertiary industry in 2010, 2015 and 2020 ad-Proportion in the final0.1%justed to 46.4%, 56. 3% and 64.0% from 44.0%,consumption51. 1% and 56.6% respectively under BAU sce-Heating supply6.3210.3316.71nario (Table 24).Proportion in the final 100.2%100.2%100. 1% .(2) Reductions of sectoral energy intensity andper capita residential energy consumptionUnder mitigation scenario, technology level isTable 23.further enhanced and the strength of polices of en-Fuel mix of heating supply under BAU scenarioergy conservation and emissions reduction is in-YearRaw coalDiesel oil Fuel oilNatural gascreased, with the sectoral energy intensities further99.5%decreasing based on BAU scenario; consciousnessof energy conservation and environmental protec-0.1% .tion is further improved, with residential energyconsumption in 2010, 2015 and 2020 reducing rel-Table 24ative to those under BAU scenario (Table 25).Industrial structure (%): mitigation(3) Optimization of energy structurePrimarySecondary industryTertiarUnder mitigation scenario, the structure of theindustry Industry Construction Total industryfinal energy consumption is further optimized, with.648.04.052.046.4oal con中国煤化工propotion of2015 0.939.23.542.756.3high-quaeum and natu-2020 0.232.63.235.7 64.0ral gas iMYHCNMHG12Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-203.3 Forecast of future CO2 enmissionsit will also increase annually. It is estimated thatthe CO2 emission from the final energy consump-3.3.1 CO2 emissions under BAU scenariotion will reach 275.19 Mt in 2020, accounting forThe energy consumption of Tianjin will in-65.8% of the total emissions.crease persistently and CO2 emissions from en-Calculated by 2005 constant price, intensity ofergy consumption will also increase annually alongCO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion will bewith economic development, increasing population 1 .45 t/10* yuan in 2020, decreasing 31.1% withand urbanization in the future. Tianjin's total CO2 annual decrease 3.1% relative to 2.11 t/10* yuan inemissions from energy consumption was 119.66 2008. The per capita CO2 emission will be 27.88 tMt in 2008. Under BAU scenario, Tianjin's total in 2020, increasing 174.0% with annual increaseCO2 emission from energy consumption will reach 8.8% relative to 10.18 t in 2008 (Table 27).418.21 Mt in 2020, increasing 249.5% and 11.0%CO2 emission from energy activities mainlyannually (Table 27). CO2 emission from the final comes from the secondary industry. Of 418.21 Mtenergy consumption was 69.58 Mt in 2008, ac- CO2 emission in 2020, that from the primary in-counting for 58.2% of the total CO2 emissions; anddustry will be 1.32 Mt, accounting for 0.3%; thatTable 25Energy intensity (ce/ 10* yuan, 2005 constant price): mitigationSecondary industryYear Primary industryTertiary industry Residential consumption per capita(t)IndustryConstruction Total20100.631.140.591.730.380.5620150.580.960.551.510.340.6820200.830.521.350.300.81Table 26Structures of primary and final energy (%): mitigationPrimary energy structureFinal energy structureYearCoalCrude oil Natural gasCokeONatural gas Heat Electricity Others62.132.95.115.012.925.54.130.32.59.534.65.912.411.930.04.39.529.72.356.736.66..74.59.29.0Table 27CO, emissions: BAUGDP (illion yuan, 2005 constant price)764.601,498.002,884.20Population (M person)12.7013.8515.00GDP per capita (10*yuan, 2005 constant price)6.0210.8219.23Energy consumption (Mtce)67.55112.28188.49CO, emission from fossil fuel combustion (Mt)153.07418.21Emission factor (t CO/tce)2.262.242.19Energy intensity (tce/104 yuan, 2005 constant price)0.880.750.65Energy consumption per capita (ce)中国煤化工8.1112.57Intensity of CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion (/10* yuan, 2005 con691.45YHCNMHG。Per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion (t).8.2927.8813Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-20from the secondary industry will be 304.19 Mt, ac- 58.2% of the total CO2 emission; while CO2 emis-counting for 72.7%; that from the tertiary industry sion from the final energy consumption will reachwill be 105.77 Mt, accounting for 25.3%; and that 209.30 Mt in 2020, accounting for 64.6% of thefrom residential consumption will be 6.93 Mt, ac- total CO2 emission in that year.counting for 1.7% (Table 28).Calculated by 2005 constant price, intensity ofCO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion will be3.3.2 CO2 emissions under mitigation scenario1.13 t/10* yuan in 2020, decreasing 46. 5% withUnder mitigation scenario, The total CO2 emis- annual decrease 5. 1% relative to 2.11 t/10* yuan insions from energy consumption will reach 325.14 2008. The per capita CO2 emission will be 21.68Mt in Tianjin in 2020, increasing 171.7% with an-t in 2020, increasing 113.0% with annual increasenual increase 8.7% (Table 29). CO2 emission from 6.5% relative to 10.18 t in 2008 (Table 29).the final energy consumption will also increaseCO2 emission from energy activities mainlyannually. CO2 emission from the final energy con-comes from the secondary industry. Of 325.14sumption was 69.58 Mt in 2008, accounting for Mt CO2 emission in 2020, that from the primaryTable 28Sector CO, emissions (Mt): BAU2010201520201. Primary industry1.021.281.321. Farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery & water.02II. Secondary industry123.38194.23304.191. Industry119.89188.32294.09Hereinto: thermal power and heating supply57.4091.04143.022. Construction3.495.9110.11II. Tertiary industry24.7052.40105.771. Transport, storage and post11.4924.6049.922. Wholesale, retail trade and hotel, restaurants10.5022.5045.983. Other2.725.309.86IV. Residential consumption3.965.356.93Total153.07253.25418.21Table 29CO2 emissions: mitigationGDP (illion yuan, 2005 constant price)764.601,498.00 2,884.20Population (M person)12.7013.8515.00GDP per capita (10* yuan, n2005 constant price)10.8219.23Energy consumption (Mtce)65.0097.71151.43CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion (Mt)146.26216.37325.14Emission factor (t CO[tce)2.252.212.15Energy intensity (ce/10 yuan, 2005 constant price)0.850.650.53Energy consumption per capita (tce)7.0610.10中国煤化工Intensity of CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion (/104 yuan, 2005 cons1.13Per capita CO, emission from fossil fuel combustion (t)YHCN MH G6221.6814Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20industry will be 0.41 Mt, accounting for 0.1%; that ogy level is further enhanced, the strength of en-from the secondary industry will be 230.60 Mt, ac-ergy conservation and emission reduction policy iscounting for 70.9%; that from the tertiary industry increased and energy intensity is further deceased;will be 88.38 Mt, accounting for 27.2%; and thatthe consciousness of energy conservation and en-from residential consumption will be 5.75 Mt, ac- vironment protection is further strengthened, andcounting for 1.8% (Table 30).the increasing speed of residential energy con-sumption per capita is more slowed; the fuel mix4 Potential and path of low carbon develop-is further adjusted and energy structure is furthermentoptimized.In view of previous scenario analysis, Tianjin's4.1 Potential of low carbon development in Tianjin energy consumption will persistently increase andCO2 emissions will also increase incessantly withUnder BAU scenario, even if industrial struc-increasing population, rapid urbanization and eCo-ture adjustment is challenging, the proportion of nomic development in the future.the secondary industry is set to decrease and turnUnder BAU scenario, Tianjin's total energy con-round the rising tendency, while that of the ter- sumption will reach 112.28 Mtce and the total CO2tiary industry is set to increase and turmn round theemission will reach 253.25 Mt in 2015, while thosedecreasing tendency; energy intensity remains in 2020 will reach 188.49 Mtce and 418.21 Mt, re-the trend of great decrease; the increasing speedspectively. Under mitigation scenario, Tianjin's totalof residential energy consumption per capita is energy consumption will reach 97.71 Mtce and theslowed; although coal will dominate energy con-total CO2 emission will reach 216.37 Mt in 2015,sumption in the future, the energy structure is still while those in 2020 will reach 151.43 Mtce andadjusted arduously, with the proportion of coal de-325. 14 Mt respectively.creased, the proportion of high quality energy (pe-Relative to BAU scenario, the total energy con-troleum and natural gas) increased and renewablesumption and the total CO2 emission are reducedenergy vigorously developed.greatly under mitigation scenario. The total en-Under mitigation scenario, the strength of in- ergy consumption is reduced 14.56 Mtce with ra-dustrial structure adjustment is increased; technol- tio of energy conservation 13.0% and the total CO2Table 30Sector CO2 emissions (Mt): mitigation201020152020I. Primary industry0.980.970.411. Farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery & waterII. Secondary industry118.77164.59230.601. Industry115.44159.44222.47Hereinto: thermal power and heating supply56.8080.73115.842. Construction3.335.158.13II Tertiary industry22.6946.0588.381. Transport, storage and post11.9325. 1249.872. Wholesale, retail trade and hotel, restaurants7.9315.5128.633. Other9.88中国煤化工IV. Residential consumption5.75TotalMHCNMH G325.145Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-20Table 31Potential of low-carbon developmentBAU scenarioMitigation scenario201020152020Energy consumption (Mtce)67.55112.28188.4965.0097.71151.43Energy conservation (Mtce)2.5614.5637.06Ratio of energy conserved (%)3.813.019.7CO2 emission (MI)153.07253.25418.21146.26216.37325.14Reduction of CO2 emission (Mt).8136.8893.07Reduction ratio (%)4.414.622.3emission is reduced 36.88 Mt with reduction ratio and rising living standard, this task is also very14.6% in 2015, while the total energy consump-formidable. It is dificult to get rid of the domina-tion is reduced 37.06 Mtce with ratio of energy tion of coal for Tianjin's energy consumption inconservation 19.7% and the total CO2 emission isthe future, even if the proportion of petroleum andreduced 93.07 Mt with reduction ratio 22.3% in natural gas which are also fossil fuels is increased2020 (Table 31).greatly. New energies such as wind power, solarenergy, and terrestrial heat are not broadly devel-4.2 Path of low carbon development in Tianjinoped now, and the development of low carbon en-ergy technology is retricted by resources, capital,To realize reduction potential mentioned above, technology and talents. It will take a very long timegoals under BAU scenario must be arrived firstly, to form perfect the industrial system and increasewhich is already a large challenge faced by Tian- the proportion of these energies in energy structure.jin. Under BAU scenario, the proportion of the sec-Hence, the task of adjusting fuel mix is hard.ondary industry must decrease and turn round theOn the basis of realizing goals under BAU sce-rising tendency, while that of the tertiary industrynario, three polices and measures are set under mit-must increase and tur round the decreasing ten- igation scenario, i.e. industrial structure adjustment,dency, which must overcome inertia of industrialsector energy intensity adjustment and fuel mix ad-development and adjust industrial structure ener- justment. By scenario analysis, Tianjin's mitigationgetically; the trend of rapid decrease of each sec- measures and effects before 2020 are as follows.toral energy intensity must be remained. Sectoralenergy intensity is determined by energy consump-4.2.1 Energy conservationtion of product, output value of product and addedBy adopting further polices and measures, en-value of product; therefore, energy efficiency must ergy conservation in 2015 will be 14.56 Mtce withbe improved vigorously with technology level of ratio of energy conservation 13.0%, hereinto, in-energy efficiency improved, technology contents of dustrial structure adjustment and sectoral energy in-products and services must be enhanced and added tensity adjustment contributing 5.03 Mtce and 9.53value of product be increased with self-dependent Mtce respectively; energy conservation in 2020 willbrands fostered. These tasks are becoming more be 37.06 Mtce with ratio of energy conservationand more difficult along with increasing level of 19.7%, hereinto, industrial structure adjustment andeconomic development. People's consciousness of sectoral energy intensity adjustment contributingenergy conservation and environmental protection 12.52 Mtce and 24.53 Mtce respectively (Table 32).must be advanced and consuming pattern must be中国煤化工changed to control growth rate of residential con- 4.2.2 CCsumption. In the context of rapid economic growthBy ::MYHC N M H Gmeasures, CO216Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20emission reduction in 2015 will be 36.88 Mt with to that under BAU scenario, hereinto, industrialreduction ratio 14.6%, hereinto, industrial struc-structure adjustment and sectoral energy inten-ture adjustment, sectoral energy intensity adjust- sity adjustment contributing 4.5% and 8.5% re-ment and fuel mix adjustment contributing 13.88spectively; energy intensity in 2020 will decreaseMt, 21.35Mt and 1.65 Mt respectively; CO2 emis-19.7% relative to that under BAU scenario, here-sion reduction in 2020 will be 93.07 Mt with re-into, industrial structure adjustment and sectoralduction ratio 22.3%, hereinto, industrial structureenergy intensity adjustment contributing 6.7% andadjustment, sectoral energy intensity adjustment13.0% respectively (Table 34).and fuel mix adjustment contributing 35.71 Mt,53.65 Mt and 3.72 Mt respectively (Table 33).4.. 2.4 Intensity of CO, emissionsBy adopting further polices and measures, inten-4.2.3 Energy intensitysity of CO2 emission in 2015 will decrease 14.6%By adopting further polices and measures, en- relative to that of BAU scenario, hereinto, indus-ergy intensity in 2015 will decrease 13.0% relative trial structure adjustment, sectoral energy intensityTable 32Mitigation measures and effects until 2020: energy conservation (Mtce)201020152020Consumption Conservation Consumption Conservation Consumption ConservationBAU scenario67.55-112.28188.49Mitigation scenario65.002.5697.7114.56151.4337.06Industrial structure adjustment5.03 .12.52Sector energy intensity adjustment1.239.5324.53Fuel mix adjustment0.00Table 33Mitigation measures and effects: reduction of CO2 emission (Mt)EmissionReductionBAU Scenario153.07253.25418.21Mitigation Scenario146.266.81216.3736.88325.1493.073.6913.8835.712.721.3553.65Fuel mix adjnent0.31.653.72Table 34Mitigation measures and effects: energy intensity (tce/10 yuan, 2005 constant price)IntensityDecreasing ratio IntensityDecreasing ratio0.880.750.650.853.8%13.0%0.5319.7%2.0%6.6%中国煤化工1.8%MYHCNMH G17Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010)6.2-20adjustment and fuel mix adjustment contributing Tianjin increased by 246.2% during 1990-20085.5%，8.4% and 0.7% respectively; intensity of (Table 36). Scenario analysis shows that, in addi-CO2 emission in 2020 will decrease 22.3% rela- tion to technological factors, the transition of eco-tive to that under BAU scenario, hereinto, indus- nomic and social development model and socialtrial structure adjustment, sectoral energy intensity spending pattern will play active and importantadjustment and fuel mix adjustment contributingrole in improving carbon productivity.8.5%, 12.8% and 0.9% respectively (Table 35).The main reasons for relatively low carbonIn view of mitigation measures and effectsproductivity in Tianjin are as follows. First, thementioned above, the most contributions come proportion of the secondary industry is high in thefrom government actions and consumption pattern industrial structure. In 2008, the proportion of theshift, especially industrial structure adjustment and secondary industry was high up to 60. 1% and thatsectoral energy intensity adjustment. The contribu- of the tertiary industry was only 38%, while that oftion from fuel mix adjustment is relatively small,the secondary industry was less than 30% and thatdue to the difficulty of changing energy structure of the tertiary industry was up to more than 70%dominated by coal and the small proportion of re-in developed countries. Energy intensity of thenewable energy, which leads to little change of secondary industry was far higher than that of theemission factor.tertiary industry. Second, ratio of value-added ofproducts in manufacturing industry is low. Accord-4.3 Carbon productivity in Tianjining to the survey, the ratio of value-added of prod-ucts in the manufacturing industry of Tianjin is farCompared with developed countries, the cur- below the level of developed countries, with highrent carbon productivity of Tianjin has remained proportion of low-end products and high energylow, but increases rapidly. Since the reform andintensity. Third, energy conversion and utiliza-opening up, Tianjin vigorously promotes energytion technology are less efficient. Per capita energyconservation, adjusts energy structure and its car-consumption of main energy-intensive products isbon productivity has been enhanced substantially. much higher than the level of developed countries.During 1990-2005, carbon productivity of AnnexFourth, fuel mix possesses outstanding character-I countries was enhanced by 34% and that of the istics of high emission. Coal is dominated in theworld average increased by 17% [24, while that of energy structure, accounting for 68. 4% in 2008.Table 35Mitigation measures and ffects: intensity of CO, emission (t104 yuan, 2005 constant price)201020152020IntensityDecrease ratio Intensity Decrease ratioDecrease ratioBAU Scenario2.001.691.45Mitigation Scenario1.914.4%1.441.1322.3%Industrial structure adjustment2.4%5.5%8.5%Sector energy intensity adjustment1.8%8.49%12.8% .Fuel mix adjustment0.2%0.7%0.9%Table 36Tianjin's carbon productivity (104 yuan/t CO,, 2005 constant price)199020052008中国煤化工-0.140.370.470.69MYHCNMH G0.8918Zhang F S, et al. / Ecological Economy (2010>6:2-20While fuel mix in developed countries is domi- ment model, promote strategic adjustment of in-nated by oil and gas, with proportion of coal onlydustrial structure, vigorously develop high-techabout 20%. CO2 emission factor of per capita en- industries and modern service industry, control theergy consumption in Tianjin is much higher thanexcessive growth of energy-intensive industries,that in developed countries.vigorously promote technological innovation, ac-The carbon productivity of Tianjin, lower than-celerate R&D of advanced new and renewable en-the level of developed countries, shows that Tian-ergy technology and the pace of industrialization,jin has a great potential to increase carbon produc-optimize the energy structure, vigorously promotetivity. It also reflects that Tianjin needs to take a energy conservation, improve energy efficiency,fairly long time and make unremitting efforts to ar- continue to eliminate backward production capac-rive at the carbon productivity level of developed ity, stress the establishment of energy conservationcountries. This is a long-term and arduous task, and energy efficiency standards of focal energy-as the same as to narrow the gap of development intensive industries, support voluntary participa-level between Tianjin with developed countries. In tion and conscious action of enterprises and theorder to realize low carbon development, Tianjin public, advocate healthy and civilized concepts ofshould strive after the path under mitigation sce- consumption, enhance social responsibility sensenario, further strengthening the adjustment of in-of enterprises, gradually form a society with lowdustrial structure, energetically enhancing technol- carbon production and consumption patterns,ogy level, consolidating polices related to energystrengthen technological innovation, develop lowconservation and reduction of emission, increasing carbon energy technologies, and active carry outconsciousness of energy conservation and environ- research of carbon capture and storage (CCS) tech-mental protection and reducing residential energy nology.consumption, optimizing energy structure withcoal consumption decreased and the proportion of Acknowledgementshigh-quality energies such as oil and natural gasincreased, and vigorously developing renewableThis paper is supported by National Key Proj-energy.ect of Scientific and Technical Supporting Pro-grams Funded by Ministry of Science and Tech-5 Conclusionsnology of China in the 11 Five- Year Plan (GrantNo.2007BAC03A12).The transition of economic development modelto low carbon economy is the fundamental way forReferencesTianjin to address climate change and coordinateeconomic development. 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