2010年中国风电展望2010 CHINA WIND POWER OUTLOOK

一。2009全球风电现状尽管国际金融危机不断，但全球风电行业继续快速扩张，实现了41%的年增长率。欧盟、美国和亚洲主导着全球风电发展。中国新增装机容量居世界第一。据全球风能理事会（GWEC）统计，全球风电总装机容量达到158gw，累计增长31.9%。全球风电产业不仅成为世界能源市场的重要组成部分，而且在拉动经济增长和创造就业机会方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。据GWEC统计，全球风力发电装机总产值已达450亿欧元，2009年度工业用电约占500000。截至2009年底，全球已有100多个国家开始发展风电，17个国家的累计装机容量均超过1千兆瓦。累计装机容量排名前十的国家是美国、中国、德国、西班牙、印度、意大利、法国、英国、葡萄牙和丹麦。2009年，亚洲成为一个重要的新市场，超过了美国和欧洲的水平，主要受到中国和印度的刺激。中国新增装机容量13.8gw，累计装机容量25.8gw。2。中国风电现状1）中国风资源广阔，海岸线长，风能资源丰富。研究表明，中国风能开发潜力巨大，陆上和海上风能的总可开发容量约为700-1200千兆瓦。其他评估显示，更高的数字高达2500千兆瓦。因此，风电有资源基础，成为国家未来能源结构的重要组成部分。与目前五大风电大国相比，中国的风资源规模接近美国，大大超过印度、德国和西班牙。东南沿海地区、沿海岛屿和我国北部（东北、北部和西北部）风能资源尤为丰富。内陆地区也有一些风能资源丰富的地方。海上风能资源也很丰富。然而，风能资源的地理分布与电力负荷不匹配。我国沿海地区用电负荷大，但风能资源匮乏。另一方面，北方风能资源丰富，但用电负荷较小。这给风电的经济发展带来了困难。2） 市场概况2009年，中国风电行业处于全球领先地位，产能增长超过100%。其累计装机容量目前居世界第二位。它的新装机容量是世界上最大的。中国的装备制造能力也位居世界第一。中国的新增装机容量和风电机组产量约占全球总量的三分之一。2009年，除台湾省外，中国新安装的风力发电机组总数为10129台，装机容量为13.8gw。因此，中国在新装置方面超过了美国。累计装机容量达到25.8千兆瓦，这是连续第四年装机容量翻番 3） 产业和供应链中国风电设备制造业发展迅速，产业集中度进一步增强。目前，国内制造商占中国供应市场的70%左右，并开始出口其产品。风电设备制造业明显分为三个层次，华锐风电、金风电、东方电气（均为全球十大供应商）位列第一，明阳、联合动力、森美公司位列第二。随后是一系列规模较小的制造商。在国际风电发展趋势的推动下，中国规模较大的风电机组制造商也开始进入大型风电设备的竞争。华锐风电、Goldwind、XEMC、上海电气集团和明阳都在开发5兆瓦或更大的涡轮机，有望生产出具有竞争力和技术成熟的机器。然而，该行业关注的一个问题是其产品的质量。普遍认为，中国国内风电设备将在2011年和2012年接受最高测试。如果它成功地通过了这项测试，将意味着质的飞跃。虽然中国目前已经建立了包括所有主要零部件生产商在内的风电机组制造供应链，但仍缺乏一个完整的配套服务网络，如认证机构和背景研发等。4） 近海前景认真调查工作正在致力于中国漫长海岸线附近的海上风电开发前景。2010年，上海东海大桥第一个海上项目完成了100兆瓦，其中包括34台华锐风电3兆瓦涡轮机。根据沿海省份编制的规划，到2020年，海上风电装机容量计划达到32800兆瓦。5） 中国风电场前三大开发商是国电（龙源电气集团）、大唐和华能。这三家都是大型国有供电公司。大多数投资和项目开发工作由供电公司承担，供电公司根据国家法律承诺稳步提高其在可再生能源中的比例。6） 截至2009年底，全国共有24个省、自治区拥有自己的风电场。累计装机容量超过1000兆瓦的省份有9个以上，其中超过2000兆瓦的省份有4个。内蒙古自治区为主导地区，新增装机容量5545兆瓦，累计装机容量9196兆瓦。三。国家能源政策2009年底，中国政府在哥本哈根气候变化大会上向国际社会作出政治承诺，到2020年，非化石能源将满足中国15%的能源需求。这将需要对未来清洁能源发展的规模和速度进行前所未有的推动，包括对风电发展的新方向。风能受到一系列法律法规的鼓励，最重要的是2005年出台的《可再生能源法》。本报告包括对本法规和影响风力发电发展的其他法规的最新变更的详细信息。1） 风电基地是中国政府风电承诺的重要组成部分，包括建立7个“千兆瓦级风电基地”。这7个基地分别位于内蒙古东部和西部、新疆库木尔、甘肃酒泉、河北酒泉、吉林西部和江苏近海，每个基地的装机容量至少有10千兆瓦。在国家能源局的领导下，2008年开始规划这些基地的发展，目前进展很快。根据规划，到2020年，总装机容量将达到138gw，但前提是配套电网建成。一个重大问题是，这些基地大多位于偏远地区，输电网薄弱，距离中国主要用电负荷中心较远。还有一个问题是如何将大量的可变风力发电集成到由不灵活的燃煤电站主导的电网网络中。2） 价格支持机制定价政策是影响开发商积极投资水平和市场增长的关键因素。中国对风电的支持机制已经从以资本回报率和平均电价为基础的价格，通过风电场开发合同的竞争性招标制度，演变为以风能资源差异为基础的固定价格。2009年出台的固定价格体系，在将全国划分为四类风能资源区的基础上，确立了陆基风电基准价格。毫无疑问，区域性限价政策的出台，是我国风电发展的积极一步，正在刺激更强劲的增长。

1. Current Status of Global Wind Power In 2009, despite the ongoing international financial crisis,  the global wind power industry continued to expand rapidly,  achieving an annual growth rate of 41%. The European Union,  the USA and Asia dominate global wind power development.  China ranked first in the world for newly installed capacity.  According to statistics compiled by the Global Wind Energy  Council (GWEC), total installed capacity of global wind power  reached 158 GW, a cumulative growth rate of 31.9%. The global wind power industry has not only become  an important part of the world energy market but is  also playing an increasingly important role in stimulating  economic growth and creating employment opportunities.  According to GWEC, the total output value of the installed  capacity of global wind power has already reached 45  billion euros and the number of people employed in the  industry was approximately 500,000 in 2009. By the end of 2009 more than 100 counties around the  world had started developing wind power, and more than  17 countries each had over 1 GW of cumulative installed  capacity. The top ten countries for cumulative installed  capacity were the USA, China, Germany, Spain, India, Italy,  France, Britain, Portugal and Denmark. Asia became an important new market in 2009, exceeding  the levels in both America and Europe and mainly  stimulated by China and India. Newly installed capacity in  China was 13.8 GW and the cumulative installed capacity  reached 25.8 GW. 2. Status of Wind Power in China 1) Wind resources China has a vast land mass and long coastline and is rich  in wind energy resources. Studies show that the potential  for exploiting wind energy in China is enormous, with a  total exploitable capacity for both land-based and offshore  wind energy of around 700-1,200 GW. Other assessments  suggest even higher figures up to over 2,500 GW. Wind  power therefore has the resource basis to become a major  part of the country’s future energy structure. Compared  with the current five major countries for wind power, the extent of wind resources in China is close to the USA and  greatly exceeds India, Germany and Spain. Wind energy resources are particularly abundant in the  southeast coastal regions, the islands off the coast and in the  northern part (northeast, north and northwest) of the country.  There are also some places rich in wind energy in the inland  regions. Offshore wind energy resources are also plentiful. The geographical distribution of wind energy resources is  mismatched with the electrical load, however. The coastal areas  of China have a large electrical load but are poor in wind energy  resources. Wind energy resources are plentiful in the north, on the  other hand, but the electrical load is small. This brings difficulties  for the economic development of wind power.  2) Market overview In 2009, the Chinese wind power industry was a global  leader, increasing its capacity by over 100%. Its cumulative  installed capacity now ranks second in the world. Its  newly installed capacity was the largest in the world. The  country’s equipment manufacturing capability also took  first place in the world. Both the newly installed capacity in  the country and China’s wind turbine output accounted for  roughly a third of the global total.  The total number of newly installed wind turbines in China  in 2009, excluding Taiwan Province, was 10,129, with an  installed capacity of 13.8 GW. China thus overtook the  USA for new installations. The cumulative installed capacity  reached 25.8 GW, in the fourth consecutive year that had  seen a doubling in capacity 3) Industry and Supply Chain China’s wind turbine equipment manufacturing industry  has developed rapidly and its industrial concentration has  further intensified. Domestic manufacturers now account  for about 70% of China’s supply market and are beginning  to export their products. The manufacturing industry for wind power equipment is  clearly divided into three levels, with Sinovel, Goldwind and  Dongfang Electric (all among the world’s top ten suppliers)  in the first ranking and Mingyang, United Power and XEMC  in the second. These are followed by a range of smaller manufacturers.  Driven by the development trends in international wind power,  the larger Chinese wind turbine manufacturers have also  begun to enter the competition for large-scale wind power  equipment. Sinovel, Goldwind, XEMC, Shanghai Electric  Group and Mingyang are all developing 5 MW or larger  turbines and can be expected to produce competitive and  technically mature machines. One concern for the industry,  however, is the quality of its products. The general view is  that China’s domestic wind power equipment will receive  its supreme test in 2011 and 2012. If it passes this test  successfully, it will mean a qualitative leap forward. Although China now has an established wind turbine  manufacturing supply chain, including producers of all  the main parts, it is still lacking a fully developed network  of ancillary services, such as certification bodies and  background research and development. 4) Offshore prospects Serious investigation effort is being committed to the  prospects for offshore wind development around China’s  long coastline. In 2010 the first offshore project was  completed – 100 MW at Shanghai's Donghai Bridge, with  34 Sinovel 3 MW turbines. According to plans prepared  by the coastal provinces, the installed capacity of offshore  wind power is planned to reach 32,800 MW by 2020. 5) Developers The top three developers of wind parks in China are  Guodian (Longyuan Electric Group), Datang and Huaneng.  All three are large state-owned power supply companies.  Most investment and project development work is  undertaken by power supply companies who have a  commitment under national law to steadily increase their  proportion of renewable energy.  6) Geographical Distribution By the end of 2009 a total of 24 provinces and autonomous  regions in China had their own wind farms. There were over  nine provinces with a cumulative installed capacity of more  than 1,000 MW, including four provinces exceeding 2,000  MW. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is the lead region, with newly installed capacity of 5,545 MW and a  cumulative installed capacity of 9,196 MW. 3. National Energy Policy At the end of 2009, the Chinese government made a  political commitment to the international community at  the Copenhagen Conference on climate change that nonfossil energy would satisfy 15% of the country’s energy  demand by 2020. This will require an unprecedented  boost to the scale and pace of future clean energy  development, including a new orientation towards wind  power development. Wind energy is encouraged by a  range of laws and regulations, the most important being  the Renewable Energy Law, originally introduced in 2005.  This report includes details of the latest changes to this and  other statutes affecting wind power development. 1) Wind Power Bases A major part of the Chinese government’s commitment to  wind power involves the creation of seven “GW-scale wind  power bases”. The seven bases, each with a potential for  at least 10 GW of installed capacity, are located in the east  and west of Inner Mongolia, Kumul in Xinjiang, Jiuquan in  Gansu, Hebei, the western part of Jilin, and the shallow  seas off Jiangsu.  Planning the development of these bases started in 2008  under the leadership of the National Energy Bureau and is  progressing fast. According to the plan, they will contain  a total installed capacity of 138 GW by 2020, but only if  the supporting grid network is established. A significant  problem is that many of these bases are located in remote  areas with a weak transmission grid and at a long distance  from China’s main electricity load centers. There is also the  issue of how large quantities of variable wind power are  integrated into a grid network dominated by inflexible coalfired power stations.  2) Price Support Mechanisms Pricing policy is a key factor affecting the level of active  investment by developers and market growth. China’s  support mechanism for wind power has evolved from a  price based on return on capital and the average price of electricity through a competitive bidding system for wind  park development contracts to a fixed price with variations  based on differences in wind energy resources. Introduced in 2009, the fixed price system establishes a  benchmark price for land-based wind power based on  dividing the country into four categories of wind energy  resource areas. There is no doubt that the introduction of  the regional fixed price policy has been a positive step in  the development of wind power in China and is stimulating  stronger growth.