Euracoal-2012年年度报告（2012年）EURACOAL-Annual-Report-2012(2012)

与气候和能源政策相比，欧元危机在2012年继续主导着欧盟政治——各地的政治家都在努力寻找恢复经济增长的持久措施。事实证明，紧缩措施不受欢迎，尤其是考虑到能源价格仍居高不下。廉价页岩气对美国经济的提振，不太可能在欧盟(eu)得到体现，欧盟的重要成员国反对开采页岩气。相反，“绿色增长”的概念在德国得到了推广，尤其是在德国，“Energiewende”(能源转型)加入了一些德语词汇——从焦虑到时代精神——成为英语的一部分。德国能源转型的成本已经很高，而且可能还会进一步升高，因为单位电力成本并没有下降，而是随着更多的风能和光伏发电投入使用而上升。值得庆幸的是，德国仍有能力利用煤炭和褐煤来满足近一半的电力需求。2012年，中国关闭了800万千瓦的核电站，天然气价格如此之高，可再生能源的补贴日益扭曲了发电顺序，以至于即便是最新的CCGT核电站也处于闲置状态，而煤炭和褐煤却享有令人垂涎的基本负荷市场。2012年，德国的煤炭和褐煤产量增长了4%，在Boxberg和Neurath新建了大型发电机组。在第18届缔约方会议上，尽管多哈会议最后36小时的会议创下了纪录，但没有取得重大进展。自1992年在巴西里约热内卢召开第一次联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC)以来，二氧化碳排放量增加了40%以上。《京都议定书》和欧盟的气候政策都没有对这一趋势产生任何明显的影响。此外，加拿大已经退出了1997年的《京都议定书》，而许多其他缔约方不愿承担任何后京都议定书规定的进一步减排负担。在煤炭使用量不断上升的背景下，欧盟的气候和能源政策面临巨大挑战。有关温室气体减排和可再生能源的20-20-20协议目标很可能在2020年前实现，但任何未来目标的实现都将困难得多。这是因为所有的低碳选择现在看起来比希望的更昂贵。天然气越来越依赖进口，而昂贵的液化天然气只能满足有限的需求。管道天然气供应与油价密切相关，但天然气的竞争对手是煤炭，而非石油。由于许多原因，核能的资本成本远远超过了几年前的估计。可再生能源正在变得更贵，而不是更少，这可能是因为大多数补贴计划没有充分鼓励经济效率。2007年，欧盟各国部长同意支持10-12个示范项目，但他们希望欧盟能尽快发展二氧化碳捕获与封存技术(CCS)。经济危机导致欧盟成员国削减开支，CCS项目也受到影响，尽管欧盟已经拿出了资金。与其他低碳技术一样，CCS技术成本高昂，但欧盟必须迅速推进这一重要技术的示范。如果我们不这样做，那么我们就没有什么东西可以提供给世界其他地方，因为世界越来越多地转向用煤炭来发电。采取这种务实的做法也有助于结束目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的僵局(专栏1，第4页)。

More than climate and energy policy, the euro crisis continued to dominate  EU politics during 2012 – politicians everywhere struggled to find durable  measures to restore economic growth. Austerity measures proved to be  unpopular, especially given that energy prices remained stubbornly high.  The boost given to the US economy by cheap shale gas is not likely to be  mirrored in the European Union, with important Member States against its  exploitation. Instead, the concept of “green growth” is promoted, nowhere  more so than in Germany where “Energiewende” has joined a handful of  German words – from angst to zeitgeist – to become part of the English  language. The costs of the German energy transition, already high, are likely  to become higher still because the unit costs of electricity are not falling, but  rising as more wind and more PV are commissioned. Thankfully, Germany  still has the capacity to generate almost half of its electricity needs from  coal and lignite. Following the closure of 8 GW of nuclear plants in 2012 and  with gas prices so high and subsidised renewables increasingly distorting  the merit order such that even the newest CCGT plants are lying idle, coal  and lignite have enjoyed the coveted base-load market. In 2012, coal and  lignite production grew by 4% in Germany with the opening of large new  generation units at Boxberg and Neurath.

At the 18th Conference of the Parties there was no great progress, despite a record-breaking 36-hour final session in Doha. Since the first United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, CO2 emissions have increased by more than 40%. Neither the Kyoto Protocol nor EU climate policy have had any discernible impact on this trend. Moreover, Canada has withdrawn from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and many other parties are not willing to bear the burdens of further emission cuts under any post-Kyoto agreement.

Against this backdrop of rising coal use, EU climate and energy policy faces deep challenges. The agreed 20-20-20 targets for GHG emission reductions and renewables are likely to be met by 2020, but any future targets will be much more difficult to deliver. This is because all of the low-carbon options now look to be more expensive than hoped. Natural gas is increasingly imported, with expensive LNG meeting marginal demand. Pipeline gas supplies are resolutely linked to oil prices – yet gas competes against coal, not oil. For many reasons, the capital cost of nuclear far exceeds estimates made just a few years ago. Renewable energy sources are becoming more expensive, not less, possibly because most subsidy schemes have not sufficiently encouraged economic efficiency. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) has not developed as quickly in the EU as ministers had hoped back in 2007 when they agreed to support 10-12 demonstration projects. The economic crisis saw Member States rein in their spending and CCS projects suffered, despite money on the table from the EU. Like other low-carbon technologies, CCS is expensive, but the EU must move ahead quickly with  the promised demonstration of this important technology. If we  don’t, then   we have little to offer the rest of the world as it turns increasingly to coal for competitive electricity generation. Taking such a pragmatic approach could also contribute to ending the stalemate of current  UNFCCC  negotiations (Box 1, page 4).