2013年世界能源展望world energy outlook2013

能源部门的许多长期信条正在被改写。主要进口国正在成为出口国，而长期被定义为主要能源出口国的国家也正在成为全球需求增长的主要中心。政策和技术的正确结合证明，经济增长、能源需求和与能源有关的二氧化碳排放之间的联系可以被削弱。非常规油气和可再生能源的崛起正在改变我们对世界能源分布的认识。对于试图协调经济、能源和环境目标的决策者来说，了解支撑能源市场的动力至关重要。那些成功预测全球能源发展的国家可以获得优势，而那些未能做到这一点的国家则有可能做出糟糕的政策和投资决策。本期《世界能源展望》（A/E0-2013）研究了到2035年能源和气候趋势的不同选择的影响，提供了可以帮助决策者、行业和其他利益相关者在快速变化的能源世界中找到出路的见解。能源需求的重心正在决定性地转向新兴经济体，特别是中国、印度和中东，这些国家推动全球能源使用量上升了三分之一。在新的政策情景（WEO-2013的核心情景）中，在印度从2020年起接管增长的主要引擎之前，中国在亚洲占据主导地位。东南亚同样成为一个不断扩大的需求中心（2013年10月出版的《世界能源组织特别报告：东南亚能源展望》详细报道了这一发展）。中国即将成为最大的石油进口国，印度将在20世纪20年代初成为最大的煤炭进口国，美国将稳步朝着在2035年前从国内资源满足其所有能源需求的方向迈进。这些变化共同代表了从大西洋盆地到亚太地区能源贸易的重新定位。高油价、地区间天然气和电价的持续差异以及许多国家不断上涨的能源进口账单，都将注意力集中在能源与更广泛的经济之间的关系上。能源与发展之间的联系在非洲得到了清楚的说明，尽管那里资源丰富，但人均能源使用量不到2035年全球平均水平的三分之一。今天，在世界上13亿人中，有近一半的人无法用上电，而在26亿人中，有四分之一的人依靠传统的生物量做饭。在全球范围内，化石燃料继续满足全球能源需求的主要份额，这对能源、环境和气候变化之间的联系产生了影响。

Many of the long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten. Major importers are becoming exporters, while countries long-defined as major energy exporters are also becoming leading centres of global demand growth. The right combination of policies and technologies is proving that the links between economic growth, energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions can be weakened. The rise of unconventional oil and gas and of renewables is transforming our understanding of the distribution of the world's energy resources. Awareness of the dynamics underpinning energy markets is essential for decisionmakers attempting to reconcile economic, energy and environmental objectives. Those that anticipate global energy developments successfully can derive an advantage, while those that fail to do so risk making poor policy and investment decisions. This edition of the World Energy Outlook (\A/E0-2013) examines the implications of different sets of choices for energy and climate trends to 2035, providing insights along the way that can help policymakers, industry and other stakeholders find their way in a fast-changing energy world. The centre of gravity of energy demand is switching decisively to the emerging economies, particularly China, India and the Middle East, which drive global energy use one-third higher. In the New Policies Scenario, the central scenario of WEO-2013, China dominates the picture within Asia, before India takes over from 2020 as the principal engine of growth. Southeast Asia likewise emerges as an expanding demand centre (a development covered in detail in the WEO Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, published in October 2013). China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The United States moves steadily towards meeting all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035. Together; these changes represent a re-orientation of energy trade from the Atlantic basin to the Asia- Pacific region. High oil prices, persistent differences in gas and electricity prices between regions and rising energy import bills in many countries focus attention on the relationship between energy and the broader economy. The links between energy and development are illustrated clearly in Africa, where, despite a wealth of resources, energy use per capita is less than one-third of the global average in 2035. Africa today is home to nearly half of the 1.3 billion people in the world without access to electricity and one-quarter of the 2.6 billion people relying on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. Globally, fossil fuels continue to meet a dominant share of global energy demand, with implications for the links between energy, the environment and climate change.