韩国总体需求展望Korea Eneray Demand Outlook

（一次能源）2014年一次能源需求预计比上年增长2.6%，达到2.876亿桶油当量。与2013年一样，一次能源需求增长率可能低于经济增长率（3.7%）。2009年至2012年，能源消费增速超过经济增速。

  (Primary energy) Primary energy demand for 2014 is forecast to rise 2.6% from the previous year to 287.6 million toe. 

As was the case in 2013, the rate of increase in primary energy demand will likely be lower than the economics growth 

rate (3.7%). The rate of increase in energy consumption exceeded the economic growth rate from 2009 through 2012. A

 rise in electricity demand (2. 7%),triggered by an increase in electricity demand for industrial use(4.8%) as an outcome of

 economic recovery, is forecast to lead primary demand.

  (Key energy indicators) Energy efficiency will likely improve and per-capita energy consumption is expected to rise.

Energy intensity (toe/million won),which is an index that indicates national energy efficiency, is expected to improve 

somewhat to 0.244 in 2014. Per-capita energy consumption for 2014 is forecast at 5.70 toe.It is forecast to remain at a

 higher level than in major OECD countries. Per-capita energy consumption(toe): ('11)5.56→('12)557→('13)558→('14)5.70.

Comparison among major countries in per-capita consumption (2011): (OECD average)4.29,(Japan)3.61,(US)7.03.

(By energy source) Electricity(2.7%) and LNG (2.0%o) are expected to lead the rise in demand. Oil (0.6% increase): It is 

expected to rise 0.6% year-on-year, attributable to increased demand in the transport sector and industrial sector. Rate 

of increase in naphtha demand (%): ('12)8.3-('13)0.5-('14)2.4. Coal(1.0% increase): There will likely be a rise of 1.0% as a 

result of an increase in coal demand for industrial use that will more than offset a reduction in coal demand for power

 generation following the resumption of operation of Singori Nuclear Power Plant Units I and 2 and Sinwolseong Nuclear

 Power Plant Unit I LNG (2.0% increase): Natural gas demand is forecast to rise much more slowly because the town gas 

penetration rate is reaching a state of saturation. Rate of increase in natural gas consumption(%):

('12)8.1→('13)4.7→('14)2.0. Nuclear power(14.2% increase): Operation of some nuclear power plants was stopped

 last year due to cable issues. Nuclear power generation is forecast to rise substantially with the resumption of operation 

of these nuclear power plants. Electricity (2.7% increase): Demand for industrial use is forecast to go up 4.8% owing to

a rise in industrial production. It is forecast to lead an increase in overall electricity demand.

(By consumption sector) Final energy demand is expected to rise 2.4% to 215.6 million

toe as a result of the economic recovery.

Industry(3.5% increase): Town gas(6.0%), electricity (4.8%0), naphtha(2.4%), etc will

likely lead an increase in energy demand in the industrial sector.

Transport(1.6% increase): This increase is due to economic recovery, an Increase in

lemand for domestic and overseas traveling, and a rise in the number of registered

vehicles, even in the face of the persistently high oil prices.

Residential/commercial/public(0.4% increase): Demand will likely go down due to the

warm weather in the first half of the year. Demand for oil will continually be replaced by

demand for other energy sources