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APEC217天然气利用Natural Gas Utilization in APEC2017 APEC217天然气利用Natural Gas Utilization in APEC2017

APEC217天然气利用Natural Gas Utilization in APEC2017

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  • 更新时间:2021-09-09
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天然气的黄金时代预计将在20世纪10年代初到来,天然气的供应和需求都将稳步增长,能源价格将趋于稳定,并成为缓解气候变化的工具,但尚未实现。本报告探讨了许多经济体在提高天然气利用率方面面临的挑战,以及在亚太地区和其他地区推广天然气利用的最佳方法,重点研究了六个案例:智利、中国、印度尼西亚、日本、联合王国和越南。基于这项研究,六个主要原因被确定为阻碍天然气利用的因素。第一个原因是,全球经济增长没有最初预期的那么快,特别是欧洲经济和中国等新兴经济体,导致了一次能源需求的平稳增长。其次,与煤炭相比,天然气无法确保电力部门的相对经济效率。亚太地区许多经济体煤炭资源丰富,特别是新兴经济体,随着国内能源需求预计将迅速增长,煤炭因具有成本竞争力而成为首选燃料。第三,政府大力支持可再生能源(许多经济体都有政策将可再生能源推广为国内零排放能源)。这种保护是成功的,天然气未能如预期那样扩大其在电力部门的市场份额,因为可再生能源的成本一直在下降。第四个原因与天然气交易相关的商业惯例有关。由于天然气的供应需要昂贵的基础设施,因此大部分天然气都是通过长期合同进行交易的。由于亚洲液化天然气价格与国际原油价格挂钩,因此在2014年之前,液化天然气价格一直随油价上涨,而液化天然气的需求也未能增加,因为与煤炭和其他燃料相比,液化天然气缺乏竞争力。第五,缺乏基础设施。只有在消费者端建立基础设施之后,才能实现天然气需求。尽管亚太地区潜在的需求规模极其巨大,但公共基础设施建设缺乏进展是需求低迷的原因之一。六是国内生产下降。在印度尼西亚,由于经济和地质原因,天然气产量下降,而在越南,天然气需求与国内生产密切匹配。由于天然气运输成本高,国内产量下降也可能导致需求下降。根据本报告案例研究的结果,在促进使用天然气方面有四个政策问题。首先是设定一个理想的能源组合。各种因素决定着一个经济体的能源结构,如各种能源的价格竞争力、供应和安全的稳定性以及环境兼容性。基于这些不同的因素,政府必须清楚地表明理想的能源供应平衡。通过明确表明整体能源结构的地位和特点,例如天然气在一个部门中的作用,供应天然气的企业将发现更容易投资于天然气业务并获得资金。二是基础设施维护。鉴于天然气的使用量不断增长,基础设施也在增长,但即使在欧洲,也有许多情况下,政府为发展天然气贡献了一定的资金。虽然可以通过明确天然气在上述能源结构设置中的预期作用,使此类基础设施投资更加容易,但仍有必要提供一定程度的政府财政支持。特别是在促进交通部门扩大使用方面,支持

The golden age of natural gas was expected to arrive early in the 2010s—with both the supply and demand of natural gas steadily growing, energy prices stabilising and as a tool in mitigating climate change—but has yet to materialise. This report examines the challenges faced in increasing gas utilisation for numerous economies and the best approach to promote the use of gas in the AsiaPacific and other regions by focusing on six case studies involving: Chile; China; Indonesia; Japan; United Kingdom and Viet Nam. Based on this study, six main reasons have been identified as factors that hampered gas utilisation. The first reason is that the global economy did not grow as much as initially anticipated, particularly the European economy and emerging economies such as China, which resulted in flat growth in primary energy demand. Second, natural gas has not been able to secure relative economic efficiencies in the power sector compared with coal. Many economies in the Asia-Pacific region have abundant coal resources, especially emerging economies, and with domestic energy demand expected to rapidly increase, coal has been the fuel of choice due to cost competitiveness. Third, there is strong government support for renewable energy (many economies have policies promoting renewable energy as domestic zero-emission energy). Such protection has been successful and natural gas has not been able to expand its market share as expected in the power sector because the cost of renewable energy has been falling. The fourth reason has to do with business practices related to trading natural gas. Since natural gas requires expensive infrastructure for its supply, much of it is traded on long-term contracts. Since the price of LNG in Asia is linked to international crude oil prices, it rose with the price of oil until 2014 and the demand for LNG failed to increase because of its lack of competitiveness compared with coal and other fuels. Fifth, there is a lack of infrastructure. Natural gas demand is realised only after the infrastructure is established on the consumer end. Although the potential scale of demand in the Asia-Pacific region is extremely large, the lack of progress on building public infrastructure is one reason demand is sluggish. Sixth is the decline of domestic production. In Indonesia, natural gas production has declined for economic and geological reasons, while in Viet Nam, gas demand is closely matched with domestic production. Since gas is expensive to transport, a decrease in domestic production can also lead to a decline in demand. Based on the findings from the case studies in this report, there are four policy issues in promoting the use of natural gas. First is setting a desirable energy mix. Various factors determine an economy’s energy mix, such as the price competitiveness of various energy sources, the stability of supply and its safety, and environmental compatibility. Based on these various factors, it is important for a government to clearly indicate the desirable energy supply balance. By explicitly indicating the position and character of the overall energy mix, such as the role natural gas is expected to play in a sector, businesses that supply gas will find it easier to invest in the gas business and acquire funding. Second is the maintenance of infrastructure. It is a given that as the use of gas grows so does infrastructure, but even in Europe there are many cases where the government has contributed a certain amount of money to develop it. While it is possible to make it easier for such infrastructure investment to be made by clarifying the expected role of natural gas in the above-mentioned energy mix setting, it is still necessary to provide some degree of government financial support. Especially in promoting expanded use in the transportation sector, it is increasingly important to support

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