2010年度报告Annual Report 2010

除了价格之外，一个关键因素将是欧盟排放交易计划对煤炭需求的影响。现在即将进入第三阶段，电力部门将全面拍卖补贴，这将对能源结构产生重大影响。根据里斯本条约，成员国仍然可以自由决定其能源结构，但实际上，这种结构将取决于排放配额的可获得性。前进的道路有两条：第一，一个成员国可以将其发电燃料结构转变为天然气；第二，它可以通过提高发电效率来保持燃料结构的平衡。后者将需要持续投资于新的、高效的发电能力。如果未来的道路是对天然气的争夺，那么这将给那些依赖煤炭发电的成员国带来沉重的负担，因为它们将不得不转向更昂贵的进口天然气。本年度报告稍后将更详细地探讨这一重要议题，对决策者提出许多问题，特别是如何维持有利于投资的政策框架。在2009年搁置之后，2011年对能源税指令的拟议修订，引起了进一步的关注。

A key factor, over and above price, will be the impact on coal demand of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Now about to enter its third phase with full auctioning of allowances in the electricity sector, it will strongly influence the energy mix. Under the Lisbon Treaty, Member States remain free to determine their energy mix, but in practice, the mix will be determined by the availability of emission allowances. There are two ways forward: firstly, a Member State could shift its fuel mix for electric power generation to natural gas; secondly, it could maintain a balanced fuel mix by improving efficiency in power generation. The latter will require continuous investment in new, highly efficient generation capacity. If the way forward is a dash for gas, then this will place a heavy burden on those Member States who are reliant on coal for power generation because they will be obliged to fuel switch to more expensive imported gas. This important topic, explored in more detail later in this annual report, raises many questions for policymakers, in particular, how to maintain a policy framework which favours investment. The proposed revision in 2011 of the Energy Taxation Directive, after being put on hold in 2009, is of further concern.