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资源与能源季刊2017年12月Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017 资源与能源季刊2017年12月Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017

资源与能源季刊2017年12月Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2017

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自2017年9月的《资源与能源季刊》以来,澳大利亚2017 - 18年的资源与能源出口收益预测值被上调了33亿美元(1.6%),至2140亿美元。对2018 - 2019年的展望略有下调,下调幅度为14亿美元(0.7%),至2000亿美元。2017-18年度的向上修正主要反映出铁矿石、动力煤和冶金煤价格高于此前的预期。尤其是铁矿石价格,其涨幅远高于此前预期。不过,到2018 - 2019年,铁矿石价格仍将下跌。对氧化铝、黄金和液化天然气出口预测的小幅向下修正,在一定程度上抵消了向上修正的影响。对2018-19年铁矿石出口量的向下修正,是导致出口收入向下修正的主要原因。对出口量的修正反映了铁矿石生产商新的生产指引。

Since the September 2017 Resources and Energy Quarterly, the forecast value of Australia’s resources and energy export earnings in 2017–18 has been revised up by $3.3 billion (1.6 per cent) to $214 billion. The outlook for 2018–19 has been revised down slightly, by $1.4 billion (0.7 per cent) to $200 billion. The upward revision for 2017–18 primarily reflects higher than previously forecast iron ore, thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices. The iron ore price in particular has held up much more than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, the outlook still remains for declining iron ore prices into 2018–19. Partially offsetting these upward revisions were minor downward revisions to forecast export earnings for alumina, gold and LNG. A downward revision to iron ore export volumes in 2018–19 is the primary driver for the downward revision to export earnings. The revision to export volumes reflects new production guidance from iron ore producers.

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