欧亚煤炭市场报告2011-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2012-1(2012)

全球硬煤产量初步数据显示，煤炭产量达到67亿吨的历史高位。自1990年以来，煤炭产量几乎翻了一番，其中中国占了大部分。中国目前的煤炭产量占全球的一半。西北欧洲港口的煤炭价格在2008年夏天达到顶峰，之后由于全球经济危机而大幅下降。此后，油价在2011年上半年回升至120-130美元/吨的相对较高水平，但在下半年跌至100美元/吨，原因是入冬季节异常温暖，导致库存增加。2011年，海运运价总体保持在非常低的水平，航运公司几乎无法弥补其边际运营成本。波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index)徘徊在1000至2000点之间，而2007年和2008年的峰值为10000点以上。过剩的机队运力和不断上涨的燃油成本，导致运营商在一些航线上尝试慢速航行。由于预计新船交付数量将再次超过报废数量，2012年的费率可能仍将维持在较低水平。根据目前的订单，并假设一些取消，好望角型船队可能从2.45亿吨增长到2012年的2.75亿吨。2011年，欧盟排放交易计划(ETS)下的低碳价格和不稳定的配额价格是许多争论的主题，特别是在接近年底时，价格降至8欧元/tCO2左右。虽然这些低价格反映出减排目标正在实现，但它们对运营商或新进入者投资二氧化碳捕获和储存等低碳技术几乎没有或根本没有激励作用。这导致欧盟委员会、欧洲议会、非政府组织甚至一些实业家呼吁对市场进行“一次性”干预，以提振价格。这将是不受欢迎的，并将破坏该计划作为一种有效的基于市场的手段，以实现在最高政治级别上达成一致的减排目标。欧洲煤炭市场欧盟无烟煤生产2011年略有下降到129.5吨,而享有的褐煤产业产出的增加几乎29吨的会员国425.6公吨。无烟煤在波兰,无烟煤生产总计75.7公吨。硬煤炭出口达到15.5公吨。许多公司在问题;这就是开采量下降的原因。在经历了几年的下降后，就业率稳定了下来。目前，波兰的硬煤行业雇佣了近11.4万人。在德国，受2018年底关闭硬煤矿协议的推动，硬煤产量预计将再减少1吨。在此之前，该计划已经过非常严格的审查，现在可以根据国家援助立法，按计划实施。不再可能逆转关闭过程。根据该计划，剩下的五个硬煤矿将逐步关闭，产量将进一步下降。下一个关闭将是2012年年中萨尔矿，这是这个传统矿区的最后一个矿。英国的煤炭消耗量上升了0.8%。煤炭占总发电量的30%，天然气占40%，核能占19%，可再生能源占11%;英国几乎没有水电。从月度发电量来看，我们可以看到，天然气在夏季价格低廉时使用量增加，而煤炭在冬季则更容易燃烧。在西班牙，产量增加了2.2吨。由于经济危机，近年来电力需求下降。可再生能源的大量增长，优先于所有其他资源，使得电力非常昂贵。意大利蒸汽煤炭进口增加了约7%,总计17吨,2011年焦煤37%,共计7太像意大利60%依赖进口天然气发电,预计政府将认识到平衡的混合能源的战略重要性来促进经济增长,煤炭发电会有一个重要的角色。奥地利的进口量保持在3.8吨左右，其中2吨焦煤和1.8吨蒸汽煤用于3台发电机组。荷兰进口总量为11.7吨，其中炼焦煤3吨，动力煤8.7吨。荷兰有很多雄心勃勃的CCS项目，但CCS立法还没有到位。在这些项目中，煤有可能被天然气取代。比利时最近公布的2010年数据与我们根据工业消费做出的估计并不完全一致。大约1.5吨的蒸汽煤已经被用来发电，Electrabel公司目前正在计划新项目，但不幸的是，只有德国和荷兰有这样的计划，因为比利时的政治环境对煤并不友好。炼焦煤主要用于阿塞洛在列日。另外0.5吨煤被用于国内用途，这使比利时总共进口了大约4吨煤。在德国，褐煤占国内能源总产出的38.5%，占一次能源消费的11.7%。25%的电力来自褐煤。2011年德国褐煤消费量增长4.2%，达到176.5吨。褐煤和煤球的工业产品产量也有所增加。2010年，由于经济危机，希腊褐煤产量大幅下降，同时天气条件也不利于褐煤的消费。不过，2011年褐煤产量略有恢复，预计2012年将进一步增加。未来褐煤产量有望稳定在每年60吨左右。国内褐煤极具竞争力的价格使得褐煤与其他燃料相比仍是工业用户的首选燃料。2011年在波兰,褐煤生产增加到62.8公吨。Konin的产量增加,而第二个坑是在Bełchatow操作。2011年9月,在Tomisławice褐煤生产开始。这个新的露天煤矿属于柯宁褐煤矿，50公吨的储量预计将持续到2030年。在保加利亚，国民议会通过了到2020年的能源战略，这与目前的欧洲能源政策相一致，并允许进一步开发该国的煤炭储备，以满足环境要求。发电厂现代化和改造之后，将为新发电厂引入强制性CCS。在捷克共和国，褐煤由三家公司开采，产量增加了3吨，达到46.6吨。该国积极参与发电厂的现代化建设;目前，褐煤发电厂Tusimice的四个区块正在进行升级改造。今年，褐煤发电厂Prunerov将开始对另外三个机组进行现代化改造。一个新的660兆瓦的火力发电厂正在莱德维斯兴建，其发电效率为45%。它将被捕获。这三个项目都由CEZ运营。除了这些项目，这家捷克煤炭集团还计划建设一座装机容量为660兆瓦、发电效率为45%的褐煤发电厂。这座发电厂可能在2021年投入使用。在匈牙利，每年的褐煤产量预计将在未来几年保持稳定，在9吨左右。从2013年开始，褐煤产量将取决于二氧化碳的价格。以2011年国内供电情况看，装机容量约9300 MW，总供电42.9 TWh，其中进口约占15%。其中，核能占44.3%，紧随其后的是天然气(27.1%)和煤炭(18.7%)。2011年，斯洛伐克的煤炭产量保持在2.4吨的水平。HBP计划将产量提高1%，预计从2012年起将维持在2.1吨/年。HBP继续从Novaky矿床和Novaky矿区的新地下气田XI进行开采，并在Handlova和Cigel附近地区进行了一些勘探工作。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Preliminary figures for global hard coal production show a historic high of 6.7 bn tonnes of coal. Since 1990, coal production almost doubled, with China accounting  for most of this growth. The country now produces half of all global coal production. COAL PRICES Coal prices at northwest European ports peaked in the summer of 2008 before  dropping significantly on account of the global economic crisis. Since then, prices  have seen a recovery to reach the relatively high levels of 120-130 US$/t during H1  2011, before falling during the second half of the year to 100 US$/t because of an  unseasonably warm start to the winter and hence a build-up of stocks. FREIGHT RATES Sea freight rates in general remained very low in 2011, with shipping companies  barely covering their marginal operating costs. The Baltic Dry Index hovered  between 1,000 and 2,000, compared with peaks above 10,000 in 2007 and 2008.  Surplus fleet capacity and rising fuel costs led operators to experiment with slow steaming on some routes. Rates are likely to remain depressed in 2012 as new vessel  deliveries are again forecast to exceed scrap pages. Based on the current order  book, and assuming some cancellations, the Capesize fleet could grow from  245 million DWT to 275 million DWT in 2012. CARBON PRICES Low and volatile allowance prices under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) were  the subject of much debate during 2011, especially towards the end of the year  when prices fell to around €8/tCO2. Whilst these low prices reflect that emission  reduction targets are being met, they offer little or no incentive for operators or new  entrants to invest in low-carbon technologies such as CO2 capture and storage. This  has led to calls by the European Commission, European Parliament, NGOs and even  some industrialists for a “one-off” intervention in the market to boost prices. This  would be unwelcome and would discredit the scheme as an efficient market-based  instrument to reach emission-reduction objectives that have been agreed at the  highest political level. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET EU hard coal production in 2011 slightly declined to 129.5 Mt, whilst the lignite industry  enjoyed an increase in output of almost 29 Mt across Member States to 425.6 Mt. HARD COAL In Poland, hard coal production totaled 75.7 Mt. Hard coal exports reached some  15.5 Mt. Many companies struggled with problems; that’s why extraction fell.  Employment stabilized, after several years of decline. Currently, the Polish hard coal  industry employs almost 114,000 people.In Germany, driven by the agreement on closure of hard coal mines by the end of  2018, hard coal production decreased as foreseen by another 1 Mt. Beforehand, this  plan had been examined very closely and can now be implemented as planned, in  agreement with state aid legislation. It is no longer possible to reverse the closure  procedure. Accordingly to the plan, the remaining five hard coal mines will be  closed step-by-step and production will go down further. The next closure will be mid  2012 at the Saar mine, the last mine in this traditional mining area. In the United Kingdom coal burn went up by 0.8%. Coal had a total share in power  generation of 30%, gas 40%, nuclear 19% and renewables 11%; there is hardly any  hydro in the UK. Looking at monthly power generation we can see that gas use  increases in summer when it is cheap and that coal is rather burnt in winter. In Spain, production increased by 2.2 Mt. Due to the economic crisis, electricity  demand fell in recent years. The large growth of renewables, which have priority  over all other sources, made electricity very expensive. Italy increased steam coal imports by some 7%, totalling 17 Mt in 2011 and coking  coal by 37%, totalling 7 Mt. As Italy depends for 60% on imported natural gas for its  power generation, the government is expected to recognize the strategic  importance of a balanced energy mix to boost economic growth, where coal  generation would have an important role. Imports to Austria remain stable at about 3.8 Mt, of which 2 Mt coking coal and 1.8  Mt steam coal to fire the 3 power units. Imports to the Netherlands totalled 11.7 Mt of which 3 Mt coking coal and 8.7 Mt  steam coal. There are very ambitious CCS projects going on in the Netherlands but  the CCS legislation is still not in place. And it is possible that coal could be replaced  in these projects by gas. Belgium just recently published its 2010 figures which are not really in line with our  own estimates, based on industry consumption. Some 1.5 Mt of steam coal have  been burnt for power generation, new projects are currently planned by Electrabel,  but unfortunately only in Germany and the Netherlands, as the Belgian political  environment is hostile to coal. Coking coal was mostly used by Arcelor in Lige.  Another 0.5 Mt of coal was used for domestic purposes which makes a total of some  4 Mt of coal imports to Belgium. LIGNITE In Germany, lignite accounts for 38.5% of total domestic energy output and for 11.7%  of primary energy consumption. 25% of electricity is generated from lignite. German  lignite consumption increased by 4.2% in 2011 reaching 176.5 Mt. The production of  industrial products from lignite and briquettes also increased. In Greece lignite production fell dramatically in 2010 due to the economic crisis, but  also due to the weather conditions which were not favorable for lignite  consumption. Nevertheless, in 2011 lignite production recovered slightly and is  expected to further increase in 2012. Lignite production is expected to stabilize at  some 60 Mt per year in the future. The very competitive price of domestic lignite still  makes lignite the preferred choice for industrial consumers compared with other  fuels. In Poland, lignite production for 2011 increased to 62.8 Mt. There was increased  output at Konin, while a second pit is in operation at Bełchatw. In September 2011,  lignite production started at Tomisławice. This new open pit belongs to the Konin  Lignite Mine and the reserves of 50 Mt are expected to last until 2030. In Bulgaria, the National Assembly adopted the Energy Strategy until 2020, consistent  with current European energy policy and allowing to further exploit the country’s  coal reserves, meeting environmental requirements. Power plant modernization and  retrofitting will be followed by the introduction of mandatory CCS for new power  plants.In the Czech Republic lignite is extracted by three companies and production  increased by 3 Mt, reaching 46.6 Mt. The country is very much involved in power  plant modernization; currently four blocks of the lignite-fired power plant Tusimice are 7 being upgraded. The modernization of three further units will start this year at the  lignite-fired power plant Prunerov. A new 660 MW coal-fired power plant is being  built in Ledvice with an efficiency of 45%. It will be capture ready. All three projects  are operated by CEZ. Further to these projects, the Czech Coal Group also plans the  construction of a 660 MW lignite-fired power plant with an efficiency of 45%. The  power plant could go into operation in 2021. In Hungary, annual lignite output is expected to stay stable for the coming years at  around 9 Mt. From 2013 onwards, lignite output will depend on the price of CO2.  Looking at domestic power supply in 2011, the installed capacity amounted to some  9,300 MW and gross power supply reached 42.9 TWh, of which some 15% was  imported. The largest share went to nuclear with 44.3%, followed by gas with 27.1%  and coal with 18.7%. In Slovakia, coal production stayed at the same level in 2011 at 2.4 Mt. HBP  increased production as planned by 1% and is expected to maintain it at 2.1 Mt/year  from 2012 onwards. HBP has continued extraction from the new underground field XI  in Novaky Deposit and Novaky Licensed Mining area and did some exploration  works in the areas around Handlova and Cigel.