欧亚煤炭市场报告2007-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2007-2(2007)

下面的评论和数字只适用于海运的世界煤炭市场。他们是初步的。全球市场煤炭2007年第一季度海运煤炭市场总量增加了2亿吨，全年预计增加30至35亿吨。动力煤(见表2)动力煤市场分为太平洋市场和大西洋市场。这两个市场之间的吨位交换是次要的，数量约占7 - 8%的海上贸易的蒸汽煤。进入大西洋市场的主要出口国仍然是印度尼西亚(来自太平洋地区)。全年增加了20到23兆。t是预期。a)太平洋市场供应印度尼西亚正在推动其出口。中国第一季度出口减少了700万吨，进口增加了近500万吨(蒸汽煤和无烟煤)，这意味着其他出口国必须填补1200万吨的缺口。这主要是由印度尼西亚和越南完成的。大西洋供应市场在2007年的前三个月也经历了令人失望的演变。出口减少了8个工厂。主要原因是去年的出口量较低。c)焦煤供应(见表3)在2007年第一季度，海运焦煤出口总量增加了400万吨，2007年的前景是增加10至1200万吨。价格演变(见表1)动力煤2007年第一季度，南非煤炭的fob价格仍在48 - 52美元/吨之间浮动。cif-ARA的价格在2007年第一季度接近80美元/tce，但由于恶劣的天气条件导致澳大利亚的生产和装载困难，目前正在上涨，达到85美元/t。焦煤合同价格稳定。美国的一些现货业务每吨增加10到20美元。这也可能是澳大利亚出口不足的反应。7月份，含12%灰分的焦炭价格升至277美元/吨。货运本年度所有主要航线的运价均维持在非常高的水平;船只仍被封锁在澳大利亚港口。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary.  World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased in the first quarter 2007 by 2 Mio t. For the  whole year an increase of 30 to 35 Mio t is estimated.  Steam Coal (see Table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents  about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is still Indonesia (from the Pacific side).  For the whole year an increase of 20 to 23 Mio. t is expected.  a) Pacific Market supply Indonesia is pushing its exports. China reduced its exports in the first quarter by 7  Mio t and increased its imports by nearly 5 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite), that  means that the other exporters have to fill the gap of 12 Mio t. That has mainly been  done by Indonesia and Vietnam.  b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply market also saw a disappointing evolution in the first three  months of 2007. The exports decreased by 8 Mill. t mainly because of low exports  compared to the last year.  c) Coking coal supply (see Table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports increased in the first quarter 2007 by 4 Mio t.  The outlook for 2007 is an increase of 10 to 12 Mio. t.  d) Price evolution (see Table 1)  Steam coal  The fob-price for South African coal was still floating between 48 - 52 US$/t in the  first Quarter 2007.  The cif-ARA price was close to 80 US$/tce in the first quarter 2007 but is currently  increasing and reaches 85 US$/t due to production and loading difficulties in Australia, caused by bad weather conditions. Coking coal / Coke  The contract prices for coking coal were stable. Some spot business in the USA saw  increases between 10 to 20 US$/t. This also might be a reaction of Australian shortfall of exports.  The coke prices for 12,5% ash content coke went up to 277 US$/t in July.  Freight  The freight rates remained at very high levels throughout the current year on all major routes; vessels are still blocked at Australian harbours.