欧亚煤炭市场报告2011-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2011-2(2011)

本市场报告中的表格反映了2011年上半年已确认的数字，同时文本给出了前9个月的一些估计。据初步估计，2011年前三季度全球煤炭贸易较2010年同期增长约3%，总量约650-670吨。今年年初发生的一系列事件对市场造成冲击，导致价格出现高企和波动，但随着时间的推移，需求有所放缓，供应趋于稳定。欧洲股市表现良好;因此，如果有必要，欧洲将能够应付一个极其寒冷的冬天。中国也在南方港口装满了库存。2011年前9个月的全球海运动力煤贸易估计为490吨(+ 42吨)。太平洋市场的澳大利亚(+ 19公吨)和印度尼西亚(+ 15公吨)以及大西洋市场的美国(+ 11公吨)的出口量大幅增加。需要指出的是，澳大利亚的蒸汽煤主要不在北部开采，因此也不经昆士兰供应，昆士兰是受洪水影响最严重的地区。Australian 和 Indonesian 蒸汽 煤 几乎 完全 被 运往  Asian markets, Indonesia 表演 也 为 India swing-supplier 其 subbituminous 煤炭 需求 特别是 在 哪里大西洋市场上的美国煤炭主要运往欧洲，部分替代了日益向东转移的南非煤炭。2011年上半年，由于价格高企，中国的进口下降，日本的进口也受到地震和海啸的严重影响。这场灾难影响了6座燃煤发电站，今年的进口量将减少数百万吨。然而，印度和韩国的经济仍在持续增长，而中国的市场依赖于价格不太高。欧洲2011年的进口也在增加，英国在去年减少库存后重返市场，德国则因核能发电量减少而需求增加。2011年前9个月，全球海运焦煤贸易量估计为160吨，澳大利亚因昆士兰州洪灾出口减少了14吨。港口和铁路还没有完全从洪水中恢复过来。美国增加了7吨的出口量，主要出口到欧洲，尤其是德国，那里的钢铁工业再次需要更多的焦煤。2011年前三个季度，炼焦煤贸易总量下降了约5吨。2011年初，随着欧洲冬季需求的增加和澳大利亚洪水的到来，煤炭价格达到了顶峰。一旦人们意识到洪水对焦煤的影响比蒸汽煤更严重，价格就回落了，因为蒸汽煤有更多的替代供应商。日本地震和海啸的初步消息传出后，价格再次上涨。一旦人们意识到日本的煤炭需求也受到了煤电站和卸货设施受损的影响，亚洲的煤炭价格就回落了。然而，由于德国核电站被关闭，加上液化天然气市场供应趋紧，欧洲天然气价格仍保持强劲。大西洋市场相对于太平洋市场的总体疲软表现在以下事实:2011年初，在澳大利亚发生洪灾后，纽卡斯尔(澳大利亚)的离岸价再次高于运往西北欧洲的离岸价，但在日本发生地震和海啸后，这一情况发生了逆转。2011年最后一个季度，亚洲和大西洋市场的价格都有所回落;欧洲和印度的需求疲软导致市场供过于求，买家一直持观望态度，希望价格能进一步下跌。多年来，炼焦煤的价格很大程度上是在年度合同谈判中确定的，并受到年度谈判中形成的基准价格的强烈影响。从2010年起，这种做法发生了变化，主要供应商从2010年4月起开始采取季度价格结算。与此同时，随着炼焦煤现货市场的不断扩大，月度价格指数也开始被引用。2011年初澳大利亚洪灾对焦煤价格的影响最为明显，因为澳大利亚在该行业占据主导地位。2011年初，优质焦煤现货价格达到每吨325美元左右。自那以来，铁矿石价格大幅走软，到年底时，现货价格在每吨240美元左右。 中国的可乐价格仍维持在每吨500美元左右，处于历史高位，但目前销量很少。运价目前运价较低，南非至鹿特丹航线的运价在每吨10美元左右的相对狭窄区间内交易。船舶供应持续增长，2011年干散货船队预计增长约13%。

WORLD MARKET The tables in the present Market Report reflect the confirmed figures for the first six  months of 2011, whilst the texts give some estimates for the first nine months.  According to first estimates, global coal trade increased in the first three quarters of  2011 compared with the same period in 2010 by some 3%, totalling about 650-670  Mt. A number of events early in the year caused shocks in the market resulting in  some high and volatile prices, but as the year progressed, demand has slackened  and supply has stabilised. Stocks in Europe are healthy; therefore, Europe will be able  to cope even with an extremely cold winter if necessary. China as well filled up its  stocks in the southern ports.  WORLD COAL TRADE STEAM COAL Global seaborne steam coal trade in the first nine months of 2011 is estimated at 490  Mt (+ 42 Mt). Major export increases were observed from Australia (+ 19 Mt) and  Indonesia (+ 15 Mt) on the Pacific market and from the USA (+ 11 Mt) on the Atlantic  market. It is to be noted that Australian steam coal is mainly not extracted in the  north and is therefore not supplied via Queensland, which was most affected by the  floods. Australian and Indonesian steam coal are almost entirely being shipped to  Asian markets, with Indonesia acting also as swing-supplier for India where its subbituminous coals are especially in demand. US coal on the Atlantic market is mainly  shipped to Europe, partly replacing South African coal which is increasingly moving  eastwards. In the first half of 2011 Chinese imports were down in response to high prices, and  Japanese imports were badly affected by the earthquake and tsunami. The disaster  affected six coal-fired power stations and imports will be down by several million  tonnes this year. However, there is continuing growth in India and Korea, and China  plays the market dependent on prices not remaining too high. Europe is also  increasing imports in 2011 with the UK returning to the market after drawing down  stocks last year and Germany seeing increased demand as a result of reduced  nuclear generation. COKING COAL Global seaborne coking coal trade in the first nine months of 2011 is estimated at 160  Mt with Australia having exported 14 Mt less due to the floods in Queensland. Ports  and railway still have not fully recovered from the floods. The USA increased its  exports by 7 Mt, going mainly to Europe and especially Germany, where the steel  industry is again demanding more coking coal. Total coking coal trade fell by some 5  Mt in the first three quarters 2011. HARD COAL PRICES Steam coal prices peaked at the beginning of 2011 first with winter demand in  Europe and then with the Australian floods. Prices fell back once it was realised that  the effect of the floods was more acute on coking than on steam coal, where there  are more alternative suppliers. Prices again moved up on initial news of the  Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Once it was realised that Japanese coal  demand was also affected because of damage to coal power stations and  unloading facilities, Asian prices fell back. European prices, however, remained  strong because of German nuclear stations being taken off line and a tighter  liquefied natural gas market, where supplies were being diverted to Japan. The general weakness of the Atlantic market vis--vis the Pacific was illustrated by  the fact that fob spot prices from Newcastle (Australia) were higher than prices  delivered to North West Europe again early in 2011 following the floods in Australia  but then reversed after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. In the last quarter of  2011 prices have fallen back in both the Asian and Atlantic markets; slacker demand  in Europe and India has sent the market into oversupply, and buyers have been  holding back in the hope of still lower prices.  For many years, pricing for coking coal was largely determined in annual contract  negotiations and has been strongly influenced by the resulting benchmark prices  which emerged during the annual negotiating round. From 2010 this practice  changed, with the major suppliers leading a move to quarterly price settlements  from April 2010. At the same time, with an increasing spot market in coking coal,  monthly price indices are now quoted.  The impact of the Australian floods in early 2011 was felt most keenly in coking prices  because of Australian dominance of the sector, with spot prices for prime coking  coal in early 2011 reaching levels of around $325/tonne. Since then, there has been significant softening in prices with spot levels of around $240/tonne towards the end  of the year. Coke prices from China still remain at around 500 US$/t, at historic peaks, but there  are currently very few sales.  FREIGHT RATES For the time being freight rates remain low, trading in a relatively narrow range  around $10.00 per tonne for the South Africa to Rotterdam route. Vessel supply has  continued to expand, with the dry bulk fleet expected to grow by around 13% in  2011.