欧亚煤炭市场报告2009-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2009-1(2009)

全球市场2008年的一些数据是初步的。然而，所描述的一般趋势是正确的。2008年全球硬煤产量增加了2亿吨甚至更多;仅中国就增加了160 - 170吨的产量，这将再次导致煤炭在全球发电中的份额增加。煤炭储量丰富，由于能源价格上涨和生产技术现代化，资源也更加丰富。美国、中国和俄罗斯拥有世界上最大的煤炭资源，因此它们参与后京都承诺对于世界有机会缓解气候变化的影响是至关重要的;任何其他国家单方面的减排努力都将是徒劳的。世界煤炭贸易a)太平洋市场供应海运动力煤贸易增加了12吨，总计达到631吨。澳大利亚在太平洋地区出口增加了17吨,印尼12吨(尽管印尼数据没有证实),而中国出口下降9吨,小于预期,和越南的13吨。总的来说,太平洋出口增加了10铜山b)大西洋市场供应大西洋的面积也增加了出口2吨。美国出口增加了7吨4吨。俄罗斯和哥伦比亚的出口降低了4吨,南非3 Mt和波兰2 Mt。回顾出口数据,我们观察到太平洋一侧的印尼出口大量的200吨煤炭,虽然俄罗斯和南非,也提供两个市场,出口大量的蒸汽煤。南非有许多新的采矿项目;所有的许可证都已颁发，但既没有技术也没有资金来开采这些煤矿。2. 炼焦煤供应(见表3)海运炼焦煤贸易增加5吨，总量达到207吨。灵活的美国增加了9吨的出口量，而澳大利亚减少了3吨的出口量。加拿大出口保持稳定，几个新项目将进一步增加出口。中国需要国内使用的煤炭，但仍比2007年多出口了1吨，利用了价格高的优势。由于内需大，俄罗斯不得不减少出口。3.中国的可乐价格在2008年夏天也达到了历史最高点(大约800美元/吨)，然后在2009年1月下降到300美元/吨。目前几乎没有对可乐的需求，平均每月出口1吨，而12月份的出口量仅为8万吨。4所示。价格演变(见表1)a)动力煤价格以南非离岸价计算，在2008年7、8月间出现了前所未有的价格上涨，当时价格达到175美元/吨，而在2009年初又回落到65-72美元/吨。它们可能进一步下跌。b)炼焦煤和焦炭的价格半软炼焦煤和PCI-coal的价格以同样的速度上涨，当然比动力煤的价格要高。在钢铁行业减产的背景下，焦炭价格(含灰分12.5%)急剧下降。离岸价仍然很高，但从去年11月的近800美元/吨降至450美元/吨。5.运费率理查兹湾-阿拉港曾达到52美元/吨的最高水平，并在12月暴跌至5美元/吨。纽卡斯尔- ARA的运费甚至达到85美元/吨，并在12月下降到11美元/吨。这当然是由于世界范围内散货船的大量扩展和需求的急剧下降;现在市场上有相当多的新吨。6. 由于世界经济正遭受严重衰退，很难对2009年的前景做出预测。这将对钢厂和动力煤市场产生影响，但影响的确切性质难以预测。在下次会议上，肯定会有更多关于2009年煤炭市场的澄清。

WORLD MARKET Some figures for 2008 are preliminary. Nevertheless, the general tendencies described are  correct.  Global hard coal production in 2008 increased by some 200 million tonnes (Mt) or even  more; China alone increased its production by 160 – 170 Mt. This will once more result in an  increased share of coal in global electricity generation. Coal reserves are abundant and, due  to the higher energy prices and modernized production technologies, resources also become  more abundant. USA, China and Russia have the biggest coal resources in the World, so  their participation in post-Kyoto commitments is essential for the world to have any chance  of mitigating the effects of climate change; any unilateral CO2 abatement efforts by other  countries will be useless.  World Coal Trade 1. Steam Coal (see table 2)  a) Pacific Market supply Seaborne steam coal trade increased by 12 Mt and reached 631 Mt in total. In the Pacific  area Australia increased exports by 17 Mt, Indonesia by 12 Mt (although Indonesian figures  are not confirmed), whilst China decreased exports by 9 Mt, which is less than expected, and  Vietnam by 13 Mt. In total, the Pacific increased exports by 10 Mt. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic area also increased exports by 2 Mt in total. The USA increased exports by 7 Mt  and Columbia by 4 Mt. Russia decreased exports by 4 Mt, South Africa by 3 Mt and Poland  by 2 Mt. Reviewing the export figures, we observe that Indonesia on the Pacific side  exported the huge amount of 200 Mt of coal, whilst also Russia and South Africa, who deliver  to both markets, exported considerable amounts of steam coal. South Africa has many new  mine projects; the licences were all issued but there is neither technology nor financing  available to exploit the mines. 2. Coking coal supply (see Table 3)  Seaborne coking coal trade increased by 5 Mt reaching 207 Mt in total. The USA, being very  flexible, increased its exports by 9 Mt whilst Australia decreased exports by 3 Mt after having  managed major problems in Queensland. Exports from Canada stayed stable and several  new projects will increase exports further. China needs its coal for domestic use, but  nevertheless exported 1 Mt more than in 2007, taking advantage of the high prices. Russia  had to decrease exports due to a high domestic demand. 3. Chinese Coke Chinese coke price also reached historic peaks in summer 2008 (almost 800 US$/t) and then  dropped to 300 US$/t in January 2009. For the time being there is almost no coke demand,  there’s an average of 1 Mt being exported per month and in December the exports only  represented 80,000 tonnes.  4. Price evolution (see Table 1)  a) Steam Coal Prices Looking at the steam coal prices fob South Africa, an unprecedented price increase was  observed in July/August 2008, when prices reached 175 US$/t whilst they again dropped  back to 65-72 US$/t at the beginning of 2009. They could potentially drop further. b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Semi-soft coking coal and PCI-coal prices have risen at the same rate and will of course be  priced at a premium to steam coal.  Coke prices (12.5% ash content) are falling steeply against the background of production  cuts in the steel industry. Fob prices are still high, but fell from almost 800 US$/t to 450  US$/t in November.  5. Freight rates Freight rates Richards Bay – ARA reached peak levels of 52 US$/t and plummeted in  December to 5 US$/t. Freight rates Newcastle – ARA even reached 85US$/t and dropped to  11 US$/t in December. This is certainly due to the big extension of the bulk carriers  worldwide coupled with the dramatic downturn in demand; there are now some considerable  new tonnages on the market. 6. Outlook It is difficult to give an outlook for 2009, with the World economy suffering a major  recession. This will have an impact on steel mills and the steam coal market, but the exact  nature of the impacts are difficult to predict. In the next meeting there will certainly be more  clarification about the coal markets in 2009.