欧亚煤炭市场报告2013-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2013-1(2013)

世界煤炭市场发展西北欧洲的煤炭价格一直低于100美元/ t,使进口煤炭竞争非常激烈的市场上,这当然是一个好消息对煤炭燃烧一般但坏消息对于欧盟本土煤炭生产商不得不与这些低价竞争。就连美国和澳大利亚的企业也难以维持如此低的产量。海运费率也极低，使托运人难以生存。在某些时候，理查兹湾的运煤比阿拉港的运煤贵。尽管RB-ARA路线已经变得不那么重要了(南非现在将煤炭运往东部，很少运往欧洲)，价格仍然是一个重要的指标。分析人士预计，煤炭价格将在未来几年回升，但他们的乐观可能是错误的。关于全球煤炭市场的世界煤炭生产和海运贸易的一般数据已经有了，详细情况将随后公布。全球硬煤产量预计将超过70亿吨，总计约72亿吨，其中澳大利亚的产量将大幅增加，这不是真正的增长，而是2011年洪灾后的复苏。中国以及印度尼西亚、哥伦比亚、俄罗斯和南非的产量预计也将增加3.8%左右。欧洲煤炭市场欧盟2012年煤炭产量几乎保持不变,而褐煤产业享有超过8吨产量增加以及硬煤炭进口增加了12吨。数据显示,这对所有在欧盟,欧盟采取措施限制煤炭消费消费上升了19吨。无烟煤波兰产生约90%的电力来自煤和褐煤和整体经济形势不是太坏。2012年，原煤产量78.1万吨，动力煤产量增长2.8%，焦煤产量增长4.1%。德国2012年的硬煤产量为11.6吨，对发电厂的销量约为980万吨。政府继续实施其主要的电力市场改革，减少煤炭燃烧。然而，由于天然气价格过高，2012年燃煤发电增长了40%，而欧盟碳排放交易体系的碳价格对煤炭竞争力的影响微乎其微。在西班牙，政府在2012年削减了对煤炭行业63%的援助。2011年，援助资金为3.01亿欧元，2012年削减至1.11亿欧元。2012年，捷克的硬煤产量略有增加，达到11.4吨。奥地利的煤炭消费量略有下降，降至3.2吨，其中约一半供应给三家燃煤电厂，一家为EVN所有，另一半供应给钢厂。煤炭主要从波兰、捷克共和国和俄罗斯进口。德国褐煤在2012年表现较好。总产出185.4吨，其中166吨供应给了发电厂，产生了158太瓦时的电力，包括来自科隆附近的博阿2号和3号以及Cottbus附近的Boxberg R号的新机组。为了从欧盟获得更多的财政支持，工资被削减了近50%，养老金被削减了。波兰褐煤仍有利可图:生产增加了3% Bełchatow是最成功的。在捷克共和国褐煤产量达到43.5公吨。积极的信息来自捷克工业的现代化Pruneřov电厂由ČEZ操作。5个210兆瓦的发电机组将被3个250兆瓦的发电机组取代。保加利亚2012年的经济活动依然疲软，但预计2013 - 2014年将略有复苏。2012年3月，保加利亚政府决定放弃在贝伦新建一座核电站(NPP)的计划，转而在Kozludy新建一座反应堆。匈牙利的褐煤产量稳定在9.2吨，预计耗电量下降1.3%，进口量保持稳定。在斯洛伐克，今后五年的新能源政策仍在制定中。简易爆炸装置和排放交易系统的换位工作已接近完成，一项新的空气保护法案和一项新的排放交易法案已经到位。在斯洛文尼亚新电厂600 MWŠoštanj (TEŠ单元6),在建Šalek山谷附近Velenje部分资金由欧洲投资银行(EIB)的贷款和欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD)分别- 4.4亿和€€2亿。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Coal prices to NW Europe have stayed mostly below 100 US$/t, making imported  coal very competitive on the market, which is of course good news for coal burn in  general but bad news for indigenous EU coal producers which have had to  compete with these low prices. Even US and Australian companies had difficulties  maintaining production at such low prices. Sea freight rates remained extremely low  as well, making it difficult for shippers to survive. At certain times, loaded coal at  Richards Bay was more expensive than delivered coal at ARA ports. Even though the  RB-ARA route has become less significant (South Africa now ships its coal East and  rarely to Europe), the price remains an important indicator. Analysts expect a  recovery of the coal price in the years to come, but their optimism may be  misplaced. WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE General data on the global world coal market are already available, details will  follow later. Global hard coal production is expected to exceed 7 bn t, totalling  some 7.2 bn t with a significant production increase from Australia, which is not a real  increase but a recovery from the floods in 2011. China as well is expected to have  increased production by some 3.8%, as well as Indonesia, Colombia, Russia and  South Africa who increased output. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET EU hard coal production in 2012 stayed practically the same, whilst the lignite  industry enjoyed an increase in output of more than 8 Mt as well as hard coal imports  which increased by 12 Mt.  Figures show, that against all EU measures to limit coal consumption in the EU,  consumption went up by 19 Mt. HARD COAL Poland produces some 90% of its electricity from coal and lignite and the overall  economic situation is not too bad. Hard coal output in 2012 reached 78.1 Mt, steam  coal output increased by 2.8% and coking coal output by 4.1%. German hard coal production in 2012 totalled 11.6 Mt, with sales to power plants of  some 9.8 Mt.The United Kingdom did not see its economy recover, neither in 2011 nor in 2012. The  government continues to implement its major electricity market reforms,  compromising coal burn. Nevertheless, due to very high gas prices, electricity  generation from coal increased by 40% in 2012 and the EU ETS carbon price had only  little impact on coal’s competitiveness. In Spain the government had cut aid to the coal industry in 2012 by 63%. In 2011, aid  was €301 million and in 2012 this was cut to €111 million. In the Czech Republic hard coal output slightly increased in 2012 to reach 11.4 Mt. In Austria coal consumption slightly fell to 3.2 Mt of which around half is delivered to  the three coal-fired power plants, one owned by EVN, and the other half to steel  mills. Coal is imported mainly from Poland, the Czech Republic and Russia. LIGNITE In Germany lignite did rather well in 2012. Output totalled 185.4 Mt of which some  166 Mt was supplied to power plants, generating 158 TWh of electricity, including  from new units at BoA 2 and 3 near Cologne and Boxberg R near Cottbus. 2012 was another hard year for Greece, and 2013 could be even worse. Salaries  were cut by almost 50%, pensions were decreased, as required to obtain further  financial support from the EU. Poland Lignite has remained profitable: production increased by 3% with Bełchatw  being the most successful mine. In the Czech Republic lignite production reached 43.5 Mt. A positive message from  the Czech industry is the modernisation of Prunřov power plant operated by ČEZ.  Five blocks of 210 MW will be replaced by three blocks of 250 MW. In Bulgaria economic activity remained weak in 2012, but is expected to recover  slightly in 2013/14. In March 2012, the Bulgarian government decided to abandon its  plan to build a new nuclear power plant (NPP) at Belen and will build an additional  reactor at NPP Kozludy instead. Lignite production in Hungary stayed stable at 9.2 Mt. Estimated power consumption  fell by 1.3% and imports stayed stable. In Slovakia the new Energy Policy for the next five years is still under development.  Transposition of the IED and ETS is nearly finished, with a new air protection act and a  new emissions trading act already in place. In Slovenia the new 600 MW Šoštanj power plant (TEŠ Unit 6), under construction in  the Šalek valley near Velenje is partly financed by loans from the European  Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development  (EBRD) – €440 million and €200 million respectively.