欧亚煤炭市场报告2007-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2007-3(20078)

下面的评论和数字只适用于海运的世界煤炭市场。它们在一定程度上是初步的。在2007年1 - 9月期间，全球海运煤炭市场增加了29mio。——全年增加40万至45万公吨。t是估计。增长率约为5%。动力煤(见表2)动力煤市场分为太平洋市场和大西洋市场。这两个市场之间的吨位交换是次要的，数量约占7 - 8%的海上贸易的蒸汽煤。The 主要 出口国 Atlantic 市场 仍 Indonesia (from 的 Pacific side).全年增加3000万英镑。t是预期。a)今年前9个月，中国从太平洋市场进口了3400万桶石油。t对27mio。2006年同期;这意味着增加了7百万。中国今年前9个月的出口额为3600万美元。t对44 Mio。这意味着要减少8百万。中国要求美国在2007年1-9月提供15兆。我们不能再从世界市场上购货了。因为中国效应23兆。世界市场上大量的煤必须由其他国家供应。印尼和越南进一步推动了出口。少量的加拿大蒸汽煤供应到太平洋市场。 Australia 有利于 高价 炼焦 煤 出口 对 动力 煤 , 因为 limited 出口 能力 Australian ports.b)大西洋市场供给大西洋市场的供给侧总体呈上升趋势。波兰减少了出口，哥伦比亚和美国增加了出口。世界市场的高价格吸引了美国出口商额外的吨数。俄罗斯、南非和委内瑞拉保持了出口稳定。印度从南非进口的煤炭比前几年都多，头9个月就进口了500万公吨。与2006年同期相比没有增长。c)焦煤供应(见表3)在2007年1 - 9月期间，海运焦煤出口总量增加了12亿吨。2007年的前景是增加15至17亿吨。这是多年来的最高增长。d)价格演变(见表1)动力煤只有欧元走强才使欧洲客户的价格下降。焦煤/焦炭焦煤的价格在下一个合同期内也趋向于大幅度上涨。据估计，2008年硬焦煤的进口从95-98美元/吨离岸价上升到125-130美元/吨离岸价。同时，可口可乐的国际市场价格也在上涨。但全球焦炭市场仅能满足全球钢铁厂6%的需求。运费率也显示出历史最高价格，并导致煤炭市场过热。去年11月，理查兹湾-阿拉港(Richards Bay - ARA)角帆船的基准运费约为每吨50美元。1-11的平均费率约为30美元/吨。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market. They are  partly preliminary.  World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased in the period 1 - 9 2007 by 29 Mio. t. For the whole  year an increase of 40 to 45 Mio. t is estimated. The growth rate is about 5%.  Steam Coal (see Table 2)  The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges  between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents about 7 – 8 % of  the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is still Indonesia (from the Pacific side).  For the whole year an increase of 30 Mio. t is expected.  a) Pacific Market supply In the first nine months China imported 34 Mio. t against 27 Mio. t in the same period in  2006; that means an increase of 7 Mio. t.  The exports from China in the first nine months were 36 Mio. t against 44 Mio. t. This means  a reduction of 8 Mio. t. China demanded for 1-9 2007 15 Mio. t more from the World market.  Because of the China-effect 23 Mio. t of coal on the World market had to be supplied by  other countries.  Indonesia and Vietnam pushed their exports further. Small tonnages of Canadian steam coal  were supplied to the Pacific market.  Australia is favouring the high-price coking coal exports against steam coal because of limited export capacities in Australian ports.  b) Atlantic Market supply The supply side in the Atlantic market was rising in total. While Poland reduced its exports,  Columbia and the USA increased exports. The high prices in the World market are attracting  additional tonnages from US exporters.  Russia, South Africa and Venezuela kept their exports stable. India was demanding more  coal from South Africa than in previous years and imported in the first nine months 5 Mio. t  more than in the same period 2006.  c) Coking coal supply (see Table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports increased in the months 1 - 9 2007 by 12 Mio t. The  outlook for 2007 is an increase of 15 to 17 Mio. t. This is the highest growth since years. d) Price evolution (see Table 1)  Steam coal Only the strong Euro is bringing the prices down for European customers.  Coking coal / Coke The prices for coking coal are also tending to high increases for the next contract period. The  coal imports are estimated for hard coking coal to rise from 95-98 US$/ t fob to 125-130  US$/t fob for the year 2008.  Also World market prices for coke are rising. But the World market for coke is supplying only  6% of the needs of steel-mills worldwide.  Freight rates Freight rates as well are showing historical top prices and are contributing to an overheated  coal market.  The benchmark freight Richards Bay – ARA was at around 50 US$/t for capesize-vessels in  November. The average rate 1-11 was around 30 US$/t.