欧亚煤炭市场报告2006-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2006-2(2006)

下面的评论和数字只适用于海运的世界煤炭市场。他们是初步的。全球海运煤炭市场增长了12百万吨，几乎增长了7%。增长率很可能不会代表全年。我们预计全年增长4 - 5%。第二季度的趋势证实了这一假设。动力煤(见表2)动力煤市场分为太平洋市场和大西洋市场。这两个市场之间的吨位交换是次要的，数量约占7 - 8%的海上贸易的蒸汽煤。进入大西洋市场的主要出口国是印度尼西亚(来自太平洋地区)。a) 2006年第一季度的太平洋市场供给量大体上与2005年的趋势相同。印尼和越南正在推动他们的出口,而中国由3绪t减少出口,增加进口了近5绪t(动力煤和无烟煤),这意味着其他出口商必须填补一个空白8绪t b)大西洋市场供应大西洋市场也看到在2006年第一季度大幅增长。所有主要生产国都增加了出口。2006年第二季度，运输问题、恶劣天气和罢工打击了哥伦比亚和南非的生产和出口。c)澳大利亚焦煤总出口量下降，但硬焦煤出口量增加了300万吨，至2200万吨。第一季度海运焦煤总出口量下降。不过，在全球钢铁行业繁荣的背景下，焦煤市场将在2006年出现增长。中国减少了从海运世界市场进口的焦煤。在一定程度上，消费场所仍有大量焦煤库存，必须将其降至正常水平。今年第一季度，可口可乐的需求下降了100万桶。d)价格演变(见表1)从年初开始，动力煤的价格一直在上涨。今年3月，南非6000千卡/公斤浮煤的基准价格从43美元/吨升至58美元/吨。从那以后，它开始下降，浮动在48 - 52美元/吨之间。哥伦比亚的罢工对价格的影响有限。天然气价格进一步上涨，扩大了国际动力煤的竞争优势。焦煤/焦炭焦煤在高水平下稳定，为硬焦煤。焦炭的fob - China价格在第一季度略有上涨，但现在6月底攀升至150 - 160美元/吨，其中12.5%是焦炭。运费运费率比较稳定。从理查兹湾到鹿特丹的披风型散货船的基准运费在上半年浮动在10 - 15美元/吨之间。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary. World Market Bulk-Evolution The total seaborne coal market increased by 12 Mio t or nearly 7 %. The growth rate most probably will not be representative for the whole year. We expect a growth of  4 - 5 % for the total year. The tendency of the second quarter is confirming this assumption. Steam Coal (see table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is Indonesia (from the Pacific side). a) Pacific Market supply In the first quarter of 2006 in principle the same tendencies as in 2005 are to be observed.Indonesia and Vietnam are pushing their exports while China is reducing its exports  by 3 Mio t and increasing its imports by nearly 5 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite),  that means that the other exporters have to fill a gap of 8 Mio t. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic market also saw a substantial growth in the first quarter of 2006. All major producers increased their exports.  In the second quarter of 2006 transport problems, bad weather conditions and strike hit the production and exports of Columbia and South Africa. c) Coking coal In Australia total coking coal exports decreased, but hard coking increased by 3 Mio t  to 22 Mio t. In total coking coal seaborne exports were shrinking in the first quarter. Nevertheless  the coking coal market should grow in 2006 against the background of a prosperous steel industry worldwide. China reduced its coking coal imports from the seaborne World Market. Partly still  high stocks of coking coal at the consumer sites have to be reduced to normal levels. The demand for coke has decreased by 1 Mio t in the first quarter. The market for coke is picking up in the second quarter of 2006.d) Price evolution (see table 1) Steam coal The prices for steam coal were increasing since the beginning of the year. The benchmark price for steam coal – the south-African 6000 kcal/kg fob-price in-creased  from 43 US$/t to 58 US$/t in March. Since then it moved down and was floating between 48 - 52 US$/t. The strike in Columbia had only a limited influence on prices. The prices of gas increased further, this  is enlarging the competitive advantage of international steam coal. Coking coal / Coke Coking coal was stable at high levels for hard-coking coal. The coke price fob – China increased slightly in the first quarter, but now end of June climbed to 150 – 160 US$/t for 12.5 % ash-coke. Freight The freight rates were relatively stable. The benchmark freight rates for cape-sized  bulk carrier from Richards Bay to Rotterdam were floating in a range between  10 – 15 US$/t in the first half year.