欧亚煤炭市场报告2009-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2009-3(2009)

全球市场2009年全球经济预计将进一步放缓。虽然经合组织国家的经济预计将下降3.4%，但非经合组织国家预计将增长1.6%。预计欧洲和日本2010年的复苏将非常缓慢。仅中国在2008年就增长了9%，预计2009年将达到+8.3%。非经合组织国家的经济增长过去和将来都是由中国和印度引领的，这将导致对进口动力煤的更高需求。从2000年到2007年，动力煤贸易以年均10%的速度增长，2008 - 2010年将是行业整合的年份，与其他行业相比仍呈现相对稳定的态势。在全球煤炭市场上，对蒸汽煤的需求有所回落。低廉的天然气价格和停滞不前的经济活动使得世界上的煤炭使用量非常少。甚至美国也减少了煤炭进口。不过，一个稳定因素是来自中国和印度的需求不断增长。虽然中国在2008年仍是煤炭净出口国(+8公吨)，但在2009年成为煤炭净进口国，煤炭进口总量增加了约60公吨。这意味着，如果没有中国的额外需求，全球动力煤市场将供过于求52公吨动力煤。中国在其中扮演着“摇摆的需求者”的角色。世界煤炭贸易大西洋市场的动力煤(2009年1月至8月)达到133吨，比2008年同期减少了10吨。南非对欧洲出口较少，但对印度出口较多。哥伦比亚保住了在欧洲的地位，但由于需求减弱，在北美、中南美洲的销量有所下降。俄罗斯保持了在欧洲的地位，并增加了对远东的出口。波兰和委内瑞拉几乎从市场上消失。b)太平洋市场太平洋市场下降了5吨与澳大利亚是唯一重要的出口国,出口增加8吨到环太平洋地区和印尼出口增加1吨。主要观察减少在中国(公/ 13吨)。b)大西洋市场供给在大西洋市场,南非(+ 4吨)和俄罗斯(+ 3 Mt)进一步增加出口。整个大西洋市场萎缩了1公吨。与2008年同期相比，2009年前6个月海运焦煤市场减少了‐22公吨，达到80公吨。澳大利亚(‐9公吨)、加拿大(‐6公吨)和美国(‐5公吨)出现了较大降幅。4所示。价格演变(见表1)a)动力煤价格动力煤价格仍相对较高，预计短期内无法与欧洲天然气竞争。到2010年，天然气价格将保持在有吸引力的水平。由于美国和欧洲工业复苏缓慢，大西洋盆地(Atlantic Basin)对蒸汽煤的低需求(也是在2010年)不会导致任何重大价格上涨。美元疲软对煤炭生产商来说是一个进一步的问题。可再生能源将继续增加欧洲电力生产的市场份额。综上所述，可以说，全球蒸汽煤贸易在经历了2000年以来的高速增长后，在2008年至2010年之间进入了整合阶段。如果没有中国出人意料的高需求，动力煤市场将出现巨大的供需失衡。b)焦煤和焦炭价格尽管对焦煤的需求依然疲软(除了来自中国的需求)，但钢铁行业略有回升，导致现货市场焦煤价格不断上涨。中国的可乐市场完全崩溃了;2009年4月，中国出口的焦炭只有约2万吨。在2008年夏季可乐价格非常高之后，2008年冬季可乐价格暴跌，但目前又在缓慢回升。2009年3月，焦炭的fob中国价格为420美元/吨。运费运费对散货船在今年早些时候从非常低的水平,推动了更强大的中国对铁矿石的需求。ARA之间的差异和理查兹湾交货价格通常低于运费,展示太平洋与大西洋的相对实力的市场。5. 经济合作与发展组织(欧洲、日本、美国)工业生产的减少削弱了工业化国家2008 / 2009年，甚至2010年对电力和动力煤的需求。低廉的天然气价格和不断增长的可再生能源发电量，将使欧洲和美国对进口煤炭的需求持续疲软。太平洋市场将继续在动力煤市场中发挥更大的主导作用。中国摇摆不定的需求角色越来越重要。供应方面继续由印度尼西亚、澳大利亚、哥伦比亚、俄罗斯和南非主导。像波兰和委内瑞拉这样的小生产商失去了市场份额。

WORLD MARKET In 2009 the global economy is expected to slow down further. Whilst the economies of OECD countries are expected to fall by ‐3.4%, Non‐OECD‐countries are expected to grow by +1.6%. Only a very slow recovery is being expected for the year 2010 in Europe and Japan. China alone had an increase of +9% in 2008 and it is expected to reach +8.3% in 2009. The economic growth of Non‐OECD countries was and will be lead by China and India, leading to a higher demand of steam coal imports. Steam coal trade increased from 2000 to 2007 by an average of 10% annually, the years 2008‐2010 will be years of consolidation, which still shows a relatively stable situation compared with other industries. On the global coal market, steam coal demand slipped back. The low gas prices and the stagnating economic activities drove the world to use very little coal. Even the USA decreased its coal imports. A stabilising factor is nevertheless the increasing demand from China and India. Whilst China remained a net coal exporter in 2008 (+8 Mt), it became a net importer in 2009, with a total coal import increase of some 60 Mt. This means that without the additional demand from China, World steam coal market would be oversupplied by 52 Mt of steam coal. China herewith has a role of ‘swing demander’.  WORLD COAL TRADE 1. STEAM COAL (see Table 2) On the Atlantic market steam coal (January‐August 2009) reached 133 Mt, which is 10 Mt less than for the same period in 2008. South Africa exported less to Europe but much more to India. Colombia kept its position in Europe, but lost sales in North, Middle and South America due to weaker demands. Russia kept its position in Europe and increased exports to the Far East. Poland and Venezuela nearly disappeared from the market.   b) Pacific Market The Pacific market decreased by 5 Mt with Australia being the only significant exporter, increasing exports by 8 Mt into the Pacific rim and Indonesia increasing exports by 1 Mt. The main decrease was observed in China (‐ 13 Mt).b) Atlantic Market supply On the Atlantic market, South Africa (+ 4 Mt) and Russia (+ 3 Mt) further increase exports. The total Atlantic market shrunk by 1 Mt.  2. COKING COAL SUPPLY (see Table 3) The seaborne coking coal market dropped by ‐22 Mt in the first 6 months 2009 compared to the same period in 2008 and reached 80 Mt. Major decreases were observed in Australia (‐9 Mt), Canada (‐6 Mt) and the USA (‐5 Mt).  4. PRICE EVOLUTION (see Table 1) a) Steam Coal Prices Steam coal prices are still relatively high and are not expected to become competitive to gas in Europe in the short‐term. Gas is set to remain at attractive price levels into 2010. The low demand for steam coal in the Atlantic Basin, also in 2010, will not allow any major price increases because of the slow industrial recovery in the US and in Europe. The weak dollar is a further problem for coal producers. Renewables will continue to increase market share in electricity production in Europe.   To conclude it can be said that Global steam coal trade has entered a phase of consolidation between 2008 and 2010 after enormous growth rates since 2000. Without the unexpected high additional demand from China, the steam coal market would have a large imbalance between demand and supply.   b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Although the demand for coking coal stayed weak (except from China), the steel industry is slightly picking up, leading to growing coking coal prices on the spot‐market. The Chinese coke market totally collapsed; in April 2009 there were only some 20.000 t of coke exported. After the very high coke prices in summer 2008 the prices collapsed in winter 2008 but are currently again picking up slowly. In March 2009 the coke price fob‐China was 420 US$/t.5. FREIGHT RATES Freight rates for bulk carriers have recovered from the very low levels earlier in the year, being driven back up by stronger demand from China for iron ore. The differentials between ARA and fob Richards Bay prices are generally lower than the freight rates, demonstrating the relative strength of the Pacific compared to the Atlantic market. 5. OUTLOOK The reduction of industrial production in the OECD (Europe, Japan, United States) weakens the demand for electricity and thermal coal in industrialized countries in 2008 / 2009, maybe even in 2010. Low gas prices and increasing amounts of electricity from renewable sources will keep demand weak for imported coal in Europe but also in the US. The Pacific market will continue to play a more dominant role in the thermal coal market. The swing demander role of China is of increasing importance. The supply side continues to be dominated by Indonesia, Australia, Colombia, Russia and South Africa. Smaller producers like Poland and Venezuela lost market share.