欧亚煤炭市场报告2015-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2015-1(2015)

世界煤炭市场发展——世界煤炭生产和海运贸易重要决定2014年全球煤炭产量持平,为72亿吨,动力煤稍微减少从6300吨到6200吨和炼焦煤1000吨增加100吨。全球煤炭贸易全球海运无烟煤贸易在2014年估计为200吨,其中900吨动力煤和炼焦煤300吨。煤炭价格和趋势动力煤价格正在下降，这种趋势可能会继续下去。煤炭价格下跌的主要原因是需求下降导致的产能过剩，这是亚洲(尤其是中国)GDP增速放缓的结果，也是全球经济形势疲软的结果。2014年，捷克共和国的硬煤产量为8.7吨，较2013年增长非常小。1987年以来，除了过去两年产量稳定外，中国的硬煤产量一直在逐步下降。在德国，按照到2018年关闭所有硬煤矿的计划，2016年将只有两家煤矿继续运营。2014年，随着一个新的4米厚煤层的开采，煤炭产量从2013年的7.55 Mt小幅增加到7.64 Mt。波兰的硬煤产量从2013年的76.5吨下降到2014年的72.5吨。销售也有所下降，从2013年的77.5吨下降到2014年的70.3吨(从227亿吨下降到194亿吨)。虽然学徒的数量仍然健康，但是工人的数量从2013年的10800人减少到了2014年的103000人。据估计，2014年西班牙的煤炭产量为3.9万吨。其中第一种燃料是核能，占22%，其次是风能，占20%。天然气发电占总发电量的8.5%，是过去五年来的最低水平，而煤炭发电占总发电量的16%。联合王国英国继续慢慢地从经济衰退中恢复过来,但有人担心,尽管工作的人数增加,预期收入税收收入低于预期的新工作是在低端的支付范围。乌克兰最重要的发展是，几乎没有煤从非政府控制地区的无烟煤煤矿转移到政府控制地区的发电厂。该国西部的煤矿也受到了影响。2014年，可再生能源在意大利发电的燃料组合中所占的比例略有下降，从15%降至14%。然而，可再生能源的增长主要打击了CCGT，这是一个演变，现在是一个趋势。11月，政府任命了新能源部长Temenuzhka Petkova。这位部长已启动了对能源行业的评估，旨在稳定该行业，该行业的债务仍在不断累积。2014年捷克的褐煤产量为38.2吨，比2013年减少了2.2吨。近年来，褐煤的开发表明，自2011年以来，每年减少200 - 300万吨。有五个褐煤在该国矿业公司:Severočeske轻而易举地(56%)、Vršanska uhelna (17%)、Sokolovska uhelna (17%)、Severni energeticka(9%)和椎体深矿井,Sev-en的一部分,主导者——(1%)。与2013年12月相比，捷克褐煤行业员工人数减少了331人，至8280人。2014年德国褐煤产量为178.2吨，较上年下降2.6%。德国中部地区的煤炭开采量较高(增长7%)，莱茵兰(下降5%)和劳西茨(下降3%)的比例略低。在Helmstedter地区的发电厂关闭数月后，去年交付了1.8公吨(+52%)。在希腊，褐煤的产量在过去两年中下降了。这不是由于市场的任何减少，而是由于有限的褐煤储量。由于经济措施影响了生产，工人人数略有下降。2014年，波兰国内生产总值增长3.3%，出口增长5.3%，进口增长5.6%，工业增长3.2%。工业部门的就业增长了0.6%。2014年12月波兰失业率为8%，比前一年下降了2%。去年经常项目有了改善。同期预算赤字254亿坡朗，仅为2014年预算的52.1%。匈牙利GDP增长约3%，但2014年能源消耗稳定在950 PJ。煤炭和褐煤在一次能源消费中的比重保持在15%左右。罗马尼亚硬煤一次能源消费由2013年的0.934万tce下降到2014年的0.744万tce，褐煤一次能源消费由5810万tce下降到552.9万tce。煤炭在净供电量中的占比从51.7 TWh提高到56.3 TWh。斯洛伐克的煤炭产量最高达到5.7吨，2012年稳定在2.3吨左右。未来几年，产量应该在1.8-1.9吨左右。国家整体经济运行良好，GDP预计增长3-5%，并以每年0.8%的速度逐步下降。斯洛文尼亚2015年将是一个挑战斯洛文尼亚电厂Šoštanj和煤矿Premogovnik Velenje, HSE集团的一部分。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Important decisions Global coal production in 2014 was little changed at 7.2 billion tonnes, steam coal slightly decreasing  from 6300 Mt to 6200 Mt and coking coal increasing by 100 Mt to 1000 Mt. Global coal trade Global seaborne hard coal trade is estimated at 1 200 Mt in 2014, of which 900 Mt were steam coal and  300 Mt were coking coal. Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices are declining and this trend is likely to continue. The main reason for the decrease of  coal prices is an over capacity due to lower demand, a consequence of slowing GDP growth rates in Asia,  especially in China, but also due to the weak global economic situation. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET HARD COAL Czech Republic Hard coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 8.7 Mt in 2014, a very small increase from 2013. The development of hard coal production since 1987 shows a gradual decline, except for the last  two years when output stabilised.Germany In Germany, in 2016, only two mines will remain in operation, in line with the plan to close all hard coal  mining by 2018. In 2014, coal production slightly increased to 7.64 Mt from 7.55 Mt in 2013 as a new  4 m thick seam was exploited. Poland Hard coal production in Poland slightly decreased from 76.5 Mt in 2013 to 72.5 Mt in 2014. Sales  decreased as well, from 77.5 Mt 2013 to 70.3 Mt of hard coal in 2014 (from 22.7 billion PLN to almost  19.4 billion PLN). The number of workers was reduced from approximately 108 800 in 2013 to 103 000  in 2014, although the number of apprentices is still healthy. Spain Coal production in Spain in 2014 is estimated at 3.9 Mt. The first fuel in the mix is nuclear energy with  22%, followed by wind energy with 20%. Natural gas generated 8.5% of electricity, the lowest figure in  the last five years, while coal’s share actually increased to 16%. United Kingdom The United Kingdom has continued slowly to recover from the recession, but there are concerns that, although the number of people working has increased, the expected income tax revenues are below  what was expected as many of the new jobs are at the lower end of the pay scale. Ukraine The most important development is that there was nearly no coal moving from the anthracite coal mines  in the non-governmental controlled area to the power plants in the governmental controlled area. The  mines in the western part of the country are suffering as well. Italy The share of coal in the fuel mix for power generation in Italy slightly reduced in 2014, from 15% to 14%,  being replaced by renewables. However, the increase in renewables mainly hit CCGT, an evolution that  is now a trend. LIGNITE Bulgaria In November, a new Energy Minister was named by the government, Temenuzhka Petkova. The Minister  has launched a review of the energy sector, aimed at stabilising the sector, which continues to  accumulate debt. Czech Republic Brown coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 38.2 Mt in 2014, 2.2 Mt less than in 2013. The  development of brown coal over recent years shows a slow decline of 2-3 million tonnes per year since  2011. There are five brown coal mining companies in the country: Severočesk doly (56%), Vršansk  uheln (17%), Sokolovsk uheln (17%), Severn energetick (9%) and the Centrum deep mine, part of  Sev-en, a.s. (1%). The number of employees in the Czech brown coal industry decreased by 331 persons  to 8,280 persons compared with December 2013. Germany Lignite production in 2014 was 178.2 Mt, 2.6% below the previous year. Coal mining was higher in Central  Germany (+7%) and slightly lower in Rhineland (-5%) and in Lausitz (-3%). After a multi-month shutdown  of the power plant in Helmstedter area, 1.8 Mt (+52%) were delivered last year. Greece In Greece the production of lignite declined over the last two years. This was not due to any market  reduction, but to limited lignite reserves. The number of workers is in slight decline, due to the economic  measures, which affected production. Poland In 2014, Polish GDP growth was 3.3%, exports increased by 5.3% and imports increased by 5.6%, while industrial growth was 3.2%. Employment in the industry sector increased by 0.6%. Unemployment rate  in Poland in December 2014 was 8%, which is 2% lower than the previous year. There was an  improvement in the current account last year. In the mentioned period, the budget deficit amounted to  PLN 25.4 billion, and was only 52.1% of the amount set in the budget for 2014. Hungary The Hungarian GDP grew by approximately 3%, but the energy consumption remained stable at 950 PJ in 2014. The share of coal and lignite in primary energy consumption remained constant at around 15%. Romania In Romania, the primary energy consumption from hard coal decreased from 0.934 in 2013 to 0.744  million tce in 2014, while lignite decreased from 5.810 to 5.529 million tce. However, the share of coal in  net power supply increased from 51.7 TWh to 56.3 TWh. Slovakia Coal mining in Slovakia reached a maximum of 5.7 Mt and stabilised at around 2.3 Mt in 2012. In the  coming years, production should be around 1.8-1.9 Mt. The overall economy of the country is doing well, with a forecasted GDP of +3-5%, gradually declining by 0.8% per year. Slovenia 2015 will be a challenging year for the Slovenian power plant Šoštanj and the coal mine Premogovnik  Velenje, part of HSE group.