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Prosperity of the industry, market-oriented transactions promote survival of the fittest行业景气度向好,市场化交 Prosperity of the industry, market-oriented transactions promote survival of the fittest行业景气度向好,市场化交

Prosperity of the industry, market-oriented transactions promote survival of the fittest行业景气度向好,市场化交

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  • 更新时间:2021-09-09
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According to data from GlobalCoalPlantTracker 1, the main indicators of installed capacity growth for coal-fired power plants in 2019 -- including capacity started, approved and pre-developed -- fell for the fourth consecutive year. As the climate problem, as well as the media, investors face in new coal power plant is still more adverse business environment, including more than 126 global influence Banks and insurance companies to expand their investment restrictions, and 27 to 33 countries and the local government has promised to phase out coal and accelerate to make the transition to clean energy. Despite a decline in the construction of coal-fired power plants, the installed capacity of coal-fired power plants grew faster in 2019 than in 2018. The main reason for the increase is that China's coal power capacity is still increasing due to the oversupply of permits from 2014 to 2016. With the exception of China, the world's coal-fired power plants have been decommissioned more than they have been put into operation, so coal-fired capacity has shrunk for the second year in a row. Globally, coal-fired power generation fell 3 percent in 2019 from 2018, while the average utilization rate of coal-fired power plants worldwide is now only 51 percent, a record low. China's central government imposed restrictions on new coal-fired power plant plans and permits in 2016. And 2019 is the first year that capacity under early-stage development has increased since the ban. The growth comes as the Chinese power industry continues to push ahead with capacity targets in the next five years to make room for 200 new coal-fired generating units by 2025. Meanwhile, China is still adding more coal-fired power plants than it needs. According to analysis by the global energy monitor, 40 per cent of installed coal-fired power plants that come on stream in 2019 have been downgraded to restricted emergency backup power.

6月份,全社会用电量同比增长8.0%,增速同比提高1.5个百分点;今年上半年全社会用电量同比增长9.4%,增速同比提高了3.1个百分点,用电量维持较快增长。上半年,6,000千瓦以上电厂发电设备容量同比增长6.2%,增速较上年同期下降0.7个百分点,继续保持放缓的趋势。受益于行业景气度提升,上半年发电设备平均利用小时数同比增加69小时。国家发改委、国家能源局近期联合发文,要求加快推进电力市场化交易,建立市场化价格形成机制。电力市场化交易规模将继续扩大,行业优胜劣汰或将加快,行业集中度有望提升。火电方面,发电量增长较快,市场化交易价差逐渐缩窄,煤炭价格逐渐回归绿色区间,火电企业业绩有望继续改善,可关注优质火电企业,相关标的有华能国际、华电国际、皖能电力、粤电力A。水电方面,增值税优惠政策取消或将影响企业盈利,但下半年来水情况预计偏丰,水电企业业绩有望稳中有升,可关注高股息率的长江电力以及“水火互补”的国投电力。核电方面,第三代机组建设进展顺利,台山、三门核电机组已实现首次并网,预计年内将实现商运,第三代核电技术有望获得验证。在严控煤电装机和水电装机增速放缓的前提下,第三代核电技术的落地将有力地推动新项目审批重启,可关注中国核电。

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