World energy outlook 2018 (Chinese version)世界能源展望2018(中文版)
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Before 2017, carbon emissions generated by global energy consumption had barely increased for three consecutive years, which was mainly attributed to the slowdown of energy consumption growth due to the improvement of energy efficiency and the optimization of energy structure driven by the rapid growth of renewable energy and the continuous decline of coal consumption. In 2017, the global transition to low-carbon energy was somewhat thwarted.Both the growth in energy consumption and the carbon emissions generated by it rose as efficiency gains slowed and coal consumption rose for the first time in four years. We should not be overly surprised by this series of iterations.As we have emphasized in the past, in addition to long-term structural factors, the remarkable performance of the energy transition in recent years has benefited from some short-term cyclical factors, particularly in China.Therefore, there is a great possibility that the global energy low-carbon transition will occur repeatedly. The long-term factors driving the energy transition continued to play a role last year.Renewable energy is once again showing strong growth momentum, with solar installed capacity and power generation being the most prominent performers.Natural gas is the biggest source of energy consumption growth, driven by China's massive industrial and residential coal-to-gas projects. But there is still a lot of room for improvement.In this year's statistical yearbook, we added power data for the first time to reflect the power sector's need for breakthroughs.The power sector is the largest primary energy consumer, accounting for more than a third of energy-related carbon emissions.Despite policies that encourage a shift in the low-carbon direction of power generation laterally, the global power generation mix has not improved in the past 20 years.Surprisingly, coal's share of power generation in 2017 was the same as in 1998, while the share of non-fossil fuel power generation remained low, and the growth of renewable energy sources failed to offset the decline of nuclear power.Attempts to optimize the generation mix have been ongoing since the turn of the century, and the failures should be of concern and focus for future action. While highlighting these long-term trends, the statistical yearbook also explores short-term factors affecting the industry.In the oil market, despite solid growth in oil demand and Opec and other countriesProduction cuts have brought inventories back to normal, but rapid growth in tight oil in the us suggests that the recent strong gains in oil prices are unlikely to be sustained.At BP, we continue to firmly focus on efficiency, reliability and capital discipline. In the natural gas market, the global surge in liquefied natural gas supplies continues to bring resources to the globe, strengthening the linkages between regional natural gas markets.Increased resource availability and an accelerated global market will boost gas demand in the long run. We are in an industry with a very diverse cycle of operations and decisions.Day after day, year after year, we need to understand how this market changes and develops as new sources of supply and directions of utilization emerge.In the long term, we need to accurately assess the factors that affect the energy transition and ensure that we do our part in meeting the twin challenges of providing energy for sustained prosperity and reducing carbon emissions. These judgments and decisions need to be supported by timely and reliable data.This is the role of the BP energy statistical yearbook of the past 67 years.The data and analysis are crucial to BP's decision making.I hope it's also helpful in your work.
在2017年以前,全球能源消费所产生的碳排放已经连续三年几乎没有 增长,这主要归功于能源消费增长受能源效率提升影响而放缓和能源 结构受可再生能源快速增长与煤炭消费持续下滑推动而得到优化。 2017年,全球能源低碳转型在一定程度上受挫了。由于能源效率的提 升速度放缓和煤炭消费四年来首次增长,能源消费的增速和所产生的 碳排放均出现增长。 我们不应对这一系列反复感到过分地惊讶。正如我们过去所强调的,除 了长期的结构性因素推动以外,近年来能源转型方面的出色表现也得 益于一些短期的周期性因素,特别是在中国。所以全球能源低碳转型 道路上发生反复的可能性很大。 那些推进能源转型的长期因素在去年继续发挥着作用。可再生能源再 次呈现出强劲的增长势头,以太阳能装机容量和发电量表现最为抢 眼。受中国大规模的工业及住宅煤改气项目推动,天然气成为消费增 长最多的能源。 但是我们仍有很大进步的空间。在今年的统计年鉴中,我们首次加入 的电力数据反映出电力部门需要寻求突破。电力部门举足轻重,是消 耗一次能源最多的行业,贡献了超过三分之一的能源相关碳排放。尽 管政策鼓励发电侧向低碳化方向转变,然而全球发电结构在过去20年 里并没有得到改善。令人惊讶的是,2017年煤电占比和1998年是持平 的,非化石燃料发电占比仍然很低,可再生能源的增长没能抵消核能 的减少。优化发电结构的尝试从世纪之交开始从未停止,种种失败理 应引起我们的关注,并成为未来采取行动的焦点。 在强调这些长期趋势的同时,本次统计年鉴亦探索那些影响行业的短 期因素。在石油市场,尽管石油需求的稳健增长和欧佩克及其他国家的减产使石油库存水平恢复正常,但美国致密油的快速增长表明,油 价近期的强劲增长势头很难持续。在BP,我们继续坚定以效率、可靠 性和资本自律为核心。 在天然气市场,全球液化天然气供应继续突增把资源引向全球,区域 天然气市场之间的联系因此加强。资源可获得性的提升和全球化市场 加速形成将长期地提振天然气需求。 我们所处行业的运营和决策周期非常多样化。日复一日、年复一年地, 我们需要掌握这个市场随着新的供应源和利用方向的出现是如何变化 和发展的。长期来看,我们需要准确评估影响能源转型的因素,确保我 们在应对为世界持续繁荣发展提供能源和减少碳排放的双重挑战时 尽职尽责。 这些判断和决策需要及时可靠的数据作为支撑。这也是过去67年BP 能源统计年鉴所扮演的角色。这些数据和分析对BP做出决策起到了 至关重要的作用。-
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