Continue to promote power reform and improve renewable energy consumption持续推进 电力改革 提高可再生能源消纳

The 13th five-year plan period is a substantial and crucial stage in the transformation of China's energy consumption structure.Controlling total energy consumption is the top priority, while controlling total coal consumption is the top priority.As the core of modern energy system, power industry has always been the main consumption sector of coal, and also the key sector of greenhouse gas and pollutant emission.In the context of the new normal of the economy and the transformation of the energy system, it is the main goal of the power industry to strictly control the total coal consumption, promote the peak of coal consumption in 2013, increase the proportion of green energy consumption, and promote the optimal allocation and structural upgrading of power resources in the later period of the 13th five-year plan and even in the future.To achieve these goals, the key is to actively promote the power (especially coal power industry) supply side structural reform.Promoting supply-side structural reform is a major decision made by the CPC central committee and the state council, and a major innovation to adapt to and guide the new normal of economic development.In February 2016, nur bekri, director of the national energy administration, pointed out that to solve the prominent problems of energy development under the new normal, such as overcapacity in traditional energy, bottlenecks in the development of renewable energy and low efficiency of the overall energy system, we must innovate the energy system and mechanism and vigorously promote the structural reform of the energy supply side.In 2016, we completed the task of cutting coal production capacity by more than 250 million tons. At the same time, we planned ahead and halted or delayed the construction of a number of coal-fired power projects, making important progress.This report reviews the coal consumption control achievements of the power industry in 2017, quantifies the coal consumption and coal control of power generation in the current year by combining the power supply and demand situation and renewable energy consumption situation, and breaks down the coal control effects of various supply-side reform measures.Secondly, it studies and evaluates the characteristics of the new normal of power generation, looks into the situation of power supply and demand in the later period of the 13th five-year plan, and proposes and quantifies the coal saving potential of major supply-side reform measures, such as promoting demand-side management, strengthening the consumption of renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency through economic dispatch.The influence of thermal power flexibility reform, an important supply-side reform measure in the power industry, on the consumption of wind power connected to the grid is systematically analyzed.Finally, the report analyzes the supply and demand situation of the power industry in 2018, calculates the scale of power generation coal consumption, and puts forward several policy Suggestions for the structural reform of the power supply side and wind power consumption.In 2017, China's total public electricity consumption was 6.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 6.5% year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year.The electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 4441.3 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.5% year-on-year, or 2.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 881.4 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, or 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.The electricity consumption of urban and rural residents reached 869.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, or 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year.Table 1 shows the historical electricity consumption of each department.The growth rate of electricity consumption in 2017 was much higher than that of 2015 and 5% higher than that of 2016.The main reasons for the rapid growth of electricity consumption in 2017 are: the macro economy has maintained steady and moderate growth, the high temperature in summer, the rebound of high-consumption industries, and the rapid growth of the tertiary industry.2. Power consumption in high-consumption industries the growth performance of power consumption in 2017 indicates that the economy is stable and improving, but the growth trend of power consumption in high-consumption industries indicates that the effect of economic stimulus policies at the end of 2016 is withdrawing, and the growth of power consumption is expected to decline in 2018.As can be seen from figure 3, the growth trend of high power consumption industry is similar to that of the whole society.Since the fourth quarter of 2016, electricity consumption in the four high-consumption industries has increased rapidly, which has promoted the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the whole society.From January to November 2017, the growth rate of the four high-power consumption industries increased year on year.The total electricity consumption accounted for 28.9% of the total electricity consumption and 19.7% of the total power consumption growth.The total electricity consumption of the four high-consumption industries increased by 4.0%, with the growth rate falling quarter by quarter.With the exception of the chemical industry, growth in other high-power industries has slowed sharply in November.The market prospect of new coal chemical industry determines the uncertainty of chemical industry's continuous growth.Building materials and ferrous metal industry growth rate than the same period last year fell;Non-ferrous metal smelting industry electricity consumption and growth rate have declined.Cement and steel production has fallen slightly between January and November, based on electricity data.In the case of coal production, raw coal output fell 2.7 per cent in November from a year earlier, driven by low downstream production, and the demand factors expected to lead to a rebound in coal output due to a decline in thermal power generation were not present.The above analysis shows that by the end of 2016 economic stimulus policy reform the supply side, high power consumption industries, such as the price picks up, the intermediate links to fill inventory multiple factors driving the wave of high rebound is out of power industry, electricity consumption of 2018 and beyond, should pay more attention to the light industry especially high value-added manufacturing, the growth of the third industry and daily use.By the end of 2017, China's total installed power-generating capacity had reached 1.7777 trillion kilowatts, up 7.6% year-on-year.Among them, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 690 million kw, accounting for 38.7 percent of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year on year.The installed power generation capacity of China increased by 133.72 million kw, of which 89.88 million kw was installed by non-fossil energy generators, both hitting record highs.Installed hydropower capacity increased by 12.87 million kilowatts, including 2 million megawatts of pumped storage.Added 15.03 million kw of grid-connected wind power;The newly installed grid-connected solar power generation capacity was 53.38 million kw, an increase of 21.67 million kw year on year.The installed coal and electricity capacity increased by 38.55 million kw, a year-on-year decrease of 1.42 million kw 2.China's full-caliber power generation capacity is 6.42 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 6.5% year on year;Among them, non-fossil energy generation increased by 10.0%, accounting for 30.4% of the total power generation, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year on year.The total grid-connected solar power generation, wind power generation and nuclear power generation increased by 75.4%, 26.3% and 16.5% respectively.

“十三五”时期是我国能源消费结构转型的实质性关键阶段。控制能源消费总量是 当前重点工作，而煤炭消费总量控制是重中之重。作为现代能源系统的核心，电力行业 一直是煤炭最主要的消费部门，同时也是温室气体、污染物排放的重点部门。在经济步 入新常态、能源系统转型的背景下严格控制煤炭消费总量，促使煤炭消费量于 2013 年达 到峰值，提高绿色能源消费占比，促进电力资源优化配置和结构升级是“十三五”后期 乃至未来一段时间电力行业的主要目标。而要实现这些目标，关键是要积极推进电力（特 别是煤电行业）供给侧结构性改革。 推进供给侧结构性改革是党中央、国务院做出的重大决策，是适应和引领经济发展 新常态的重大创新。2016 年 2 月，国家能源局局长努尔 • 白克力指出，破解新常态下能 源发展面临的传统能源产能过剩、可再生能源发展瓶颈制约、能源系统整体运行效率不 高等突出问题，必须创新能源体制机制，大力推进能源供给侧结构性改革。在 2016 年超 额完成了 2.5 亿吨的煤炭去产能任务，同时超前谋划，停建、缓建了一批煤电项目，取 得了重要进展。 本报告回顾了 2017 年电力行业煤炭消费控制成果，结合电力供需形势和可再生能 源消纳形势量化了当年发电耗煤与煤控情况，并分解了各项供给侧改革措施的控煤效果。 其次，对电力新常态的特征进行研判，对“十三五”后期电力供需形势进行了展望，提 出并量化了推进需求侧管理、强化可再生能源消纳、经济调度提升能效等主要供给侧改 革措施的节煤潜力。对电力行业重要的供给侧改革措施——火电灵活性改造对风电并网 消纳的影响进行了系统分析。最后，报告分析了 2018 年电力行业供需形势，匡算了电力 行业发电耗煤规模，并针对电力供给侧结构性改革及风电消纳提出若干政策建议。

1. 全社会用电量增长情况 2017 年全国全社会用电量 6.4 万亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.5%，增速比上年同期提高 1.5 个百分点 1 ，分产业看，第一产业用电量 1155 亿千瓦时，同比增长 7.3%，占全社会 用电量的比重为 1.8%；第二产业用电量 44413 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.5%，增速比上年 同期提高 2.6 个百分点，占全社会用电量的比重为 70.4%，对全社会用电量增长的贡献 率为 59%；第三产业用电量 8814 亿千瓦时，同比增长 10.7%，增速比上年同期回落 1.1 个百分点，占全社会用电量的比重为 14.0%，对全社会用电量增长的贡献率为 21.8%；城乡居民生活用电量 8695 亿千瓦时，同比增长 7.8%，增速比上年同期回落 3 个百分点，占全社会用电量的比重为 13.8%，对全社会用电量增长的贡献率为 16.4%。 表 1 展示了各部门的历史用电量。2017 全年全社会用电量增速远超 2015 年电力增速， 高于 2016 年 5% 的需求增速。2017 年全社会用电量增长较快的主要原因在于：宏观经 济持续稳中向好、夏季高温因素、高耗电行业反弹、第三产业较快增长。2. 高耗电行业用电情况 2017 年电力消费增长表现表明经济稳中向好，但高耗电行业用电增长态势则表明 2016 年底的经济刺激政策效应正在退出，2018 年电力消费增长有望回落。 由图 3 可知，高耗电行业与全社会用电增速变化趋势相近。自 2016 年四季度以来， 四大高耗电行业用电增长较快，推动了全社会用电快速增长。2017 年 1-11 月份，四大 高耗电行业增速同比增长；合计用电量占全社会用电量的比重为 28.9%，对全社会用电 量增长的贡献率为 19.7%。全年四大高耗电行业合计用电量增长 4.0%，增速逐季回落。11 月当月除化工行业外，其他高耗电行业增速已大幅回落。化工行业中的新型煤化 工的市场前景决定了化工行业持续增长的不确定性；建材与黑色金属行业增速比上年同 期回落；有色金属冶炼行业用电同比与增速均有所下降。根据用电数据推算，1-11 月份， 水泥和钢铁行业产量已出现小幅下降。就煤炭产量而言，受下游产品生产处于低位的影响， 11 月份原煤产量同比下降 2.7%，火电发电量下降预期导致煤炭产量反弹的需求因素不 复存在。 上述分析表明，受 2016 年底经济刺激政策、高耗电行业供给侧改革、价格回升、 中间环节补库存等多重因素推动的这一波高耗电行业反弹正在退出，观察 2018 年及之后 的电力消费，应更多关注轻工业特别是高附加值制造业、第三产业和生活用电的增长态势。 3. 电源装机增长情况 截至 2017 年底，全国全口径发电装机容量 17.77 亿千瓦、同比增长 7.6%；其 中，非化石能源发电装机容量 6.9 亿千瓦，占总发电装机容量的比重为 38.7%，同比提 高 2.1 个百分点。全国新增发电装机容量 13372 万千瓦，其中，新增非化石能源发电装 机 8988 万千瓦，均创历年新高。新增水电装机 1287 万千瓦，其中抽水蓄能 200 万千 瓦；新增并网风电装机 1503 万千瓦；新增并网太阳能发电装机 5338 万千瓦，同比增加 2167 万千；新增煤电装机 3855 万千瓦、同比减少 142 万千瓦 2。 全国全口径发电量 6.42 万亿千瓦时、同比增长 6.5%；其中，非化石能源发电量同 比增长 10.0%，占总发电量比重为 30.4%，同比提高 1.0 个百分点。全口径并网太阳能 发电、并网风电、核电发电量分别增长 75.4%、26.3% 和 16.5%。