高效煤的动力THE POWER OF HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL

•非经合组织区域有1.1太瓦的煤炭产能正在建设或开发中。分析表明，目前约有：在建200亿瓦，在建900亿瓦。•在非经合组织区域正在开发的9亿瓦特中，分析表明，计划使用约5亿瓦特的高效率、低排放（HELE）技术。•分析表明，到2040年，亚临界燃煤发电量可能占增量燃煤发电量的43%。从全球应对气候变化行动的角度来看，显然有必要将增量煤炭发电能力进一步从亚临界转向HELE技术。•从2015年到2040年，将开发中剩余的4亿千瓦容量转换为HELE技术将花费约310亿美元，并节省60亿吨二氧化碳。•有很大的机会影响开发人员选择的技术类型。但由于开发银行提供的融资选择有限，开发商可能会接受较低的效率和较低的排放率，因为亚临界和HELE技术之间的前期资本成本差异。•到2040年，每年节省的二氧化碳量将达到11亿吨。•从2015年到2040年，将400千兆瓦亚临界和300千兆瓦超临界容量转换为超超临界容量将花费约810亿美元，并节省130亿吨二氧化碳。•鉴于煤炭预计仍将是满足日益增长的电力需求的最经济的选择（以美元/兆瓦时为基础），没有其他低能耗发电技术能够为相同的投资提供相同的兆瓦时发电量。•在2035年，根据我们对非经合组织亚洲的基本情况假设，超超临界比联合循环燃气轮机便宜30%至45%，比大型太阳能光伏便宜25%至30%（以平准化电力成本计算）。•此外，鉴于可再生技术的较高资本成本和较低的负荷系数，在大多数地区，向HELE技术的转化是最低的二氧化碳减排替代方案（以美元/吨为基础）。•在2035年，根据我们对非经合组织亚洲的基本情况假设，通过超超临界二氧化碳的避免成本比联合循环燃气轮机低40美元/吨至75美元/吨，比大型太阳能光伏发电低10美元/吨至35美元/吨

• There are 1.1 TW of coal capacity under  construction or in development in non-OECD  regions. Analysis indicates that there is around: – 200 gigawatt under construction  – 900 gigawatt in development. • Of the 900 gigawatt in development in nonOECD regions, analysis suggests that around  500 gigawatt are planned to use high-efficiency,  low emission (HELE) technologies. • Analysis suggests that by 2040 subcritical coalfired power generation capacity could comprise  43% of incremental coal-generation capacity. From  the perspective of global action on climate change  there is a clear need to shift incremental coalgeneration capacity further away from subcritical  and towards HELE technologies. • The conversion of the remaining 400 gigawatt of  capacity in development to HELE technologies  would cost around $31 billion and save 6 billion  tonnes of CO2 from 2015 through to 2040. • There is a significant opportunity to influence  the type of technology that developers select.  But with limited financing options available  from development banks developers may accept  lower efficiency and poorer emissions rates due  to the upfront capital cost differences between  subcritical and HELE technologies. • By 2040, the tonnes of CO2 saved will amount to  1.1 billion per year.• The conversion of both 400 gigawatt of subcritical  and 300 GW of supercritical capacity to ultrasupercritical capacity would cost around  $81 billion and save 13 billion tonnes of CO2 from 2015 through to 2040. • Given that coal is expected to remain the most  affordable option to meet increasing power  demand (on an $/MWh basis), no other lowemission generation technology can provide  the same terawatt-hour of generation for the  same investment. • In 2035, under our Base Case assumptions for  non-OECD Asia, ultra-supercritical is between  30% and 45% cheaper than Combined Cycle Gas  Turbines, and between 25% and 30% cheaper  than large-scale solar PV (on a levelised cost of  electricity basis). • Furthermore, given the higher capital costs of  renewable technologies and their lower load  factors, in most regions, conversion to HELE  technologies represents the lowest CO2 abatement  alternative (on a $/tonne basis). • In 2035, under our Base Case assumptions for  non-OECD Asia, the avoided cost of CO2 through  ultra-supercritical is between $40/tonne and  $75/tonne lower than Combined Cycle Gas  Turbines, and between $10/tonne and $35/tonne  lower than large-scale solar PV.