本文件为PDF文档.评估天然气与煤发电气候效益的关键因素Key factors for assessing climate beneﬁts of natural gas versus coal electricity g
是复杂的。 由大量因素报告的生命周期评价研究，由大到大 建议的气候指标的数量。因此，需要确定影响以下因素的关键因素 天然气与煤电生产的气候效应，以及呈现这些气候 以尽可能清晰透明的方式产生效果。这里，我们确定发电厂的财务状况 以及甲烷泄漏率作为解释温室气体大部分变化的因素 天然气和煤电厂的排放。因此，我们关注这些因素在 确定天然气与煤电厂的相对优点。我们开发了一个简单的 估算天然气和煤炭发电厂CO2和CH4排放的模型，以及 温度变化。简单的基础物理变化可以通过抽象评估来掩盖 因此，我们集中分析全球平均温度的时间演化。我们的 在工厂运行期间，如果甲烷大量泄漏，天然气 与具有相同电力输出的煤电厂相比，电厂可以产生更大的近期变暖。 然而，如果甲烷泄漏率低，发电厂效益高，天然气发电
厂 能够减少短期的变暖。从长远来看，天然气发电厂 产生比煤电厂更少的变暖。然而，没有碳 捕获和储存天然气发电厂无法实现大幅削减 需要避免对额外的全球变暖作出重大贡献。
Assessing potential climate effects of natural gas
electricity generation is complicated by the large number of factors reported in life cycle assessment studies, compounded by the large number of proposed climate metrics. Thus, there is a need to identify the key factors affecting the climate effects of natural gas versus coal electricity production, and to present these climate effects in as clear and transparent a way as possible. Here, we identify power plant efﬁciencies and methane leakage rates as the factors that explain most of the variance in greenhouse gas emissions by natural gas and coal power plants. Thus, we focus on the role of these factors in determining the relative merits of natural gas versus coal power plants. We develop a simple model estimating CO2 and CH4 emissions from natural gas and coal power plants, and resulting temperature change. Simple underlying physical changes can be obscured by abstract evaluation metrics, thus we focus our analysis on the time evolution of global mean temperature. We ﬁnd that, during the period of plant operation, if there is substantial methane leakage, natural gas plants can produce greater near-term warming than coal plants with the same power output. However, if methane leakage rates are low and power plant efﬁciency is high, natural gas plants can produce some reduction in near-term warming. In the long term, natural gas power plants produce less warming than would occur with coal power plants. However, without carbon capture and storage natural gas power plants cannot achieve the deep reductions that would be required to avoid substantial contribution to additional global warming.