主要煤炭消耗经济体案例研究的见解Insights from case studies of major coal-consuming economies

本报告汇集了煤炭转型项目的主要见解。“煤炭转型”是一个国际研究联盟，旨在支持关于煤炭未来的基于事实的对话。研究方面的项目包括三个流:分析过去的煤和工业过渡y案例研究途径实现煤炭转换兼容“远低于2C”目标的六个主要煤炭利用的经济体,如中国、印度、南非、波兰、德国和澳大利亚的y分析煤炭转换在全球煤炭贸易的影响。本报告所引用的国家案例研究是由各自国家煤炭部门以及能源系统、劳动力市场和工业政策方面的国家专家编写的。案例研究的目的是为实施国家煤炭转型提出具体的选择方案，这些方案既要与《巴黎协定》的“远低于2摄氏度”的目标相一致，又要公平公正，尊重国家差异。然而，它们不一定符合《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement)将气温升幅限制在1.5摄氏度以内的理想目标。关于研究使用的方法的进一步资料可在报告的导言和本研究的具体报告中找到。主要结论1。煤炭转型已经开始。由于气候和非气候政策因素，全球煤炭消费可能在本世纪20年代初出现逆转——如果现在还没有出现的话。在这种情况下，政府和负责任的利益相关者有责任为有管理的煤炭转型做好准备。全球已有36个国家的政府和28家公司承诺，将在2030年前逐步淘汰电力行业的煤炭。各国政府正开始实施新的探索性举措，包括过渡工作组、煤炭过渡委员会和利益相关方协商平台，以探讨结束煤炭使用的各种选择。主要煤炭消耗经济体的增长势头也在增强。在中国、印度和南非等大型发展中经济体，最近已经出台或正在讨论在未来10年遏制和/或减少煤炭消耗的政策。一场关于煤炭使用量何时开始达到峰值(印度)或何时开始下降(中国、南非)的辩论正在展开。这引发了关于这些国家何时以及如何管理煤炭转型的讨论，这一过程得到了煤炭转型项目的演示和支持。煤炭转型在技术上是可行的，也是负担得起的。对所有6个国家保持在2摄氏度以下的技术经济情景的分析表明，到2040-2050年，煤炭可以被一系列替代能源替代，包括太阳能、风能、水能、生物质能、核能和天然气。即使在采用CCS的情况下，由于成本和可行性的挑战，煤炭在2050年的电力结构中仍然只占很小的一部分。由于可再生能源的竞争力日益增强，向这些替代能源的过渡可以在不显著提高电力系统成本的情况下进行。在某些情况下，如南非，消费者的成本可以降低，使电力结构多样化。研究还发现，减少对新燃煤电厂的依赖，更注重推广离网太阳能+电池解决方案，可以为印度等地离网社区提供更便宜、更有效的电力供应。政府可以通过避免过度建设新电厂、淘汰旧的摊销电厂以及确保剩余燃煤电厂的最大运营寿命政策来避免煤炭行业的资产搁浅。煤炭工人和社区的“公平过渡”是可能的。虽然没有实现公正转型的普遍蓝图，但煤炭转型项目确定了大量具体的政策解决方案。他们中的许多人在过去的煤炭转型中已经尝试和测试过。这些方案的设计同利益攸关者在决策过程的早期进行有意义的协商和参与一样，对它们的效力非常重要。然而，早期的预测和准备过渡是实现最佳效果的关键。量身定做的劳动力转移计划和建立地方经济弹性需要时间、准备和边做边学。4. 煤炭转型可以加强全球气候行动，并实现其他社会和经济目标。例如，该项目发现，在印度减少对燃煤电厂的依赖(需要用水降温)将有助于减少缺水地区的水和电之间的冲突。在中国和印度，减少煤炭的使用将有助于消除对人类健康不利的SO2、NOx和PM2.5颗粒的主要来源之一。在非洲和印度，利用微电网发电可能比新建燃煤电厂更便宜、更有效。在南非，电力部门的煤炭多样化将有助于降低电力供应的成本，同时限制煤炭出口部门对电力部门进行交叉补贴的风险。在波兰，实施有管理的褐煤开采过渡将有助于为未来10-20年内褐煤矿的枯竭做好准备。在澳大利亚，煤炭转型也涉及对出口市场下滑的审慎规划。在许多情况下，煤矿区已经面临重大的社会和经济挑战。在这些社区，煤炭转型可以成为一个有用的“借口”，为未来一代创造包容性的对话和战略。因此，“公正的过渡”不仅需要减轻逐步淘汰煤炭的不利影响。在本报告审查的国家中，煤炭部门的利益攸关方往往承认，煤炭的日子已经屈指可数，需要为过渡作好准备。然而，这样做需要政府承担起解决问题的责任。这意味着建立一个专门的政策框架，为所有受影响的各方支持公平和有管理的过渡。该报告及其所依据的研究提供了一些政策制定者可能希望考虑的煤炭过渡方案。它还强调了需要进一步研究煤转变的领域。

This report brings together the main insights from the  Coal Transitions project. Coal Transitions was an international research consortium seeking to support fact-based  dialogue on the future of coal. The research side of the  project included three work streams: y Analysis of past coal and industrial transitions y Case studies on pathways to implement coal transitions compatible with the “well below 2C” objective  in six major coal-using economies, i.e. China, India,  South Africa, Poland, Germany, and Australia y Analysis of the impacts of coal transitions on the global  coal trade. The national case studies cited in this report were developed by national experts on the coal sector, as well  as on energy systems, labour markets and industrial  policy in the respective countries. The case studies aim  to suggest concrete options for implementing national  coal transitions that are consistent with the “well below  2C” aim of the Paris Agreement, while being fair and  just, and respecting national differences. However, they  are not necessarily compatible with the Paris Agreement  aspirational goal to limit temperature increases to 1.5C.  Further information on the methodology used for the  research can be found in the introduction to the report  and in the specific reports this study draws from.Key findings 1. Coal transitions are already happening. Due to  both climate and non-climate policy factors, global coal  consumption could go into reverse by the early 2020s, if  it has not done so already. In this context, it is incumbent  upon governments and responsible stakeholders to prepare for a managed coal transition. 36 governments and  28 companies around the world have already committed  to phasing out coal from the power sector by 2030.  Governments are beginning to put in place new exploratory initiatives, just transition task forces, coal transition  commissions and stakeholder consultation platforms to  explore options for the end of coal use. Momentum is also building in major coal-consuming  economies. In large developing economies like China,  India and South Africa, policies have been introduced  recently or are being discussed to curb and/or reduce coal consumption over the coming decade. A debate  is now emerging on when coal use should begin to  either peak (India) or decline (China, South Africa).  This is generating discussion on when and how to  manage coal transitions in these countries, a process  that is both demonstrated and supported by the Coal  Transitions project.2. Coal transitions are technically feasible and affordable. The analysis of the techno-economic scenario  required to stay below 2C for all six countries showed  that by 2040-2050 coal can be replaced with a portfolio  of alternative energy sources, including solar, wind, hydro, biomass, nuclear, and natural gas. Even in scenarios  with CCS, coal remains a minor part of the power mix in  2050, due to its cost and feasibility challenges. Because of the growing competitiveness of renewable  energy, the transition to these alternatives can occur  without significantly higher costs for the electricity  system. In some cases, such as South Africa, costs for  consumers could be reduced diversifying the power  mix. A lower reliance on new coal plants and a greater  focus on promoting off-grid solar-plus-battery solutions was also found to provide cheaper and more  effective access to electricity for off-grid communities  in places like India. Governments can avoid stranded  assets in the coal sector by avoiding overbuilding  new plants, retiring old amortised ones, and ensuring  maximum operational lifetime policies for remaining  coal plants.3. A “just transition” for coal workers and communities is possible. While there is no universal blueprint  for implementing a just transition, the Coal Transitions  project identified a large number of specific policy solutions. Many of them have been tried and tested during  past coal transitions. The design of such programmes  matters greatly to their effectiveness, as does the meaningful consultation and participation of stakeholders early on in the decision-making process. However, early  anticipation and preparation of the transition is vital to  achieve the best results. Tailored workforce transition  programmes and the building of local economic resilience require time, preparation and learning by doing. 4. Coal transitions can strengthen global climate  action and deliver other social and economic objectives. The project found, for instance, that in India a  lower reliance on coal-fired power plants (which require  water for cooling) would help reduce conflicts between  water and electricity access in water-stressed regions. In  China and India, reducing coal use would help eliminate  one of the major contributors of SO2, NOx and PM2.5  particles that adversely affect human health. In Africa  and India, energy access could be cheaper and more effective with micro-grids than new coal plants. In South Africa, diversification from coal in the power  sector would help reduce the cost of supplying electricity, while limiting the risk of cross-subsidisation of  the power sector by the coal export sector. In Poland,  implementing a managed transition for lignite mining  would help prepare for the exhaustion of lignite mines  expected within the next 10-20 years. In Australia, coal  transitions are also about prudent planning for the decline of export markets. In many cases, coal mining regions are already facing  significant social and economic challenges. In these communities, coal transitions can become a useful “excuse”  to create an inclusive dialogue and strategy for the future  generation. “Just transition” therefore needs to be not  only about mitigating the unwanted impacts of phasing  down coal. In the countries examined in this report, stakeholders  in the coal sector often acknowledge that the days of  coal are numbered and there is a need to prepare the  transition. Doing so, however, requires governments to  take ownership of the problem. This means establishing  a dedicated policy framework to support a fair and managed transition for all affected parties. This report and  the research upon which it is based provide a number  of options that policy makers may wish to consider for  coal transitions. It also highlights areas where further  research on coal transitions is needed.