煤炭在欧洲的未来作用The Future Role of Coal in Europe.

研究的重点褐煤和硬煤覆盖约1/6的初级能源消耗在欧盟（欧盟25）。国内生产约占消费的2/3。在发电领域，煤炭是不可或缺的。煤炭为社区内安全、经济的电力供应做出了重要贡献。由于其高碳强度，煤炭在欧洲气候保护政策中处于防御地位，但由于供应安全和经济原因，应处于进攻地位。与排放交易计划（ETS）相关的强有力的气候政策限制可能导致高二氧化碳价格，并改变欧洲煤炭使用的经济性。有鉴于此，本研究旨在研究和评估欧洲煤炭的现状和未来前景。研究的重点是欧洲煤炭作为发电燃料市场的关键驱动因素和决定因素。欧盟27、欧盟15和欧盟10+2的所有结果汇总。关于区域条件，重点放在主要煤炭生产国（波兰、德国、联合王国、西班牙、希腊、捷克共和国、匈牙利、保加利亚和罗马尼亚）和主要煤炭消费市场（上述国家和法国、意大利、荷兰）。本研究不包括炼焦煤、焦炭和煤炭产品作为钢铁生产和其他工业用途的原料。欧洲的煤炭（1）在欧洲，既有大量的硬煤储量，也有亚烟煤和褐煤储量，储量分布在各个地区。包括俄罗斯在内，欧洲在世界范围内拥有超过30%的探明储量，但在欧盟成员国只有4.4%。西欧和南欧（欧盟15国）的石油储量在过去50年中由于高产量水平而显著下降，而欧盟10国和候选国，特别是波兰仍保留着大量的石油储量。（2） 欧洲（不包括前苏联）目前的煤炭产量约为315百万吨标准煤，占世界煤炭年总产量（4058百万吨标准煤）的8%。包括土耳其和前苏联国家在内的邻国增加了大约320的煤产量。到目前为止，德国和波兰是欧盟最大的煤炭生产国；它们加起来约占欧盟目前所有煤炭产量的2/3。（3）在1999的煤炭消费量中，495 MTCE的历史最低水平再次上升，特别是在欧盟15（2004至292的MTCE）中，而在同一时期保持在欧盟10和选定候选国家（145 MTCE）的大致恒定水平。欧洲联盟的邻国消费了另外60百万吨标准煤，不包括前苏联国家，这些国家的消费量在1998年下降到230百万吨标准煤，在2004年上升到250百万吨标准煤。（4） 煤炭消费量超过了欧洲的产量，煤炭净进口量从125mtce（1994年）增长到147mtce（2004年）。欧洲硬煤进口最重要的原产国是南非、澳大利亚、哥伦比亚和前苏联。（5） 日本和欧洲的到岸价格在1999/2000年创下了20年来的新低，达到每吨35美元左右，主要出口国（中国、俄罗斯）的国内需求增加，产量减少（美国），运费增加，导致2004年煤炭价格高企。然而，从储量和有竞争力的生产商市场来看，可以得出的第一个结论是，与其他化石燃料相比，煤炭价格更可能保持稳定或适度增长。（6） 在发电方面，煤炭在欧盟占主导地位，装机容量占25%，发电量占近三分之一。然而，在未来25年内，在整个欧洲，投资于新的发电厂（约占目前总发电量的三分之一）是必要的。这可能会导致发电组合的深刻变化，包括煤炭、天然气和可再生能源在内的许多新电厂的选择正在考虑之中，在一些国家还包括核能。

Focus of the study  Lignite and hard coal cover approximately 1/6 of primary energy consumption in the European Union (EU 25). About 2/3 of consumption  are covered by domestic production. In the sector of power generation coal is indispensable. Coal delivers an important contribution to a  secured and economic power supply within the community.  Due to its high carbon intensity coal gets into a defensive position in  European climate protection policies but should be in an offensive  position due to security of supply and economic reasons. Strong climate policy restrictions connected with Emissions Trading Scheme  (ETS) may lead to high CO2-prices and change the economics of coal  use in Europe. Having that in mind, the study aims to examine and to  evaluate the current situation as well as the future perspectives of  coal in Europe.  The focus of the study is on key drivers and determinants of the  European market of coal as fuel for power generation. All results are  aggregated for the EU 27, EU 15 and EU 10+2. Concerning regional  terms, the focus is set on the main coal producing countries (Poland,  Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Greece, Czech Republic, Hungary,  Bulgaria and Romania) and the major coal consuming markets (the  above mentioned and France, Italy, Netherlands).  Coking coal, coke and coal products as raw materials for steel production and other industrial purposes are excluded in this study.  Coal in Europe  (1) In Europe there is both a large reserve of hard coal as well  as subbituminous and lignite available, with reserves regionally dispersed. Including Russia Europe is keeping more than 30% of the  proven reserves worldwide, however only 4.4% in the member states  of the EU. Reserves in western and southern Europe (EU 15) have  significantly decreased due to a high production level during the last  50 years, while EU 10 and candidate countries, especially Poland still  keep significant reserves.  (2) Europe (without former Soviet Union) presently accounts for  about 315 Mtce coal production; this is 8% of the world's total annual coal production (4’058 Mtce). Neighbouring countries including  Turkey and the states of the former Soviet Union add to approximately the same amount of produced coal (320 Mtce). Germany and  Poland are by far the largest coal producers in the EU; together they  account for about 2/3 of all coal presently produced in the EU.  (3) After an all-time low of 495 Mtce in 1999 coal consumption  was taking up again, especially in EU 15 (from 292 to 314 Mtce in  2004), while during the same period keeping approximately a constant level in EU 10 and selected candidate countries (145 Mtce). Another 60 Mtce are consumed by neighbouring countries of the European Union, not counting the former states of the Soviet Union, which  have been as well decreasing to 230 Mtce in 1998 and growing to  250 Mtce in 2004.  (4) Coal consumption is exceeding the European production,  with net coal imports growing from 125 Mtce (1994) to 147 Mtce  (2004). The most important countries of origin for European hard coal  imports are South Africa, Australia, Colombia, and the Former Soviet  Union.  (5) After a twenty year low in 1999/2000 with CIF prices of  around $35 a ton for both Japan and Europe, increased domestic  demand in major exporting countries (China, Russia), decreased production (USA) and increased freight charge leading to high coal  prices 2004. However, with view on reserves and competitive producer markets as a first conclusion can be drawn, that coal prices are  more likely to stay stable or growing moderately compared to other  fossil fuels.  (6) In power generation, coal is playing a dominant role in the  European Union with 25% of installed capacities and almost one third  of the power generation. However, investments in new power plants  with roughly one third of today's total capacity are necessary  throughout Europe in the next 25 years. This could result in a profound change in the power generation portfolio, with many options  under consideration for new plants including coal, gas and renewables or in some countries also nuclear energy.