Research on total coal consumption control plan and policy of iron and steel industry钢铁行业煤炭消费总量控制方案

As an important basic industry of national economy, iron and steel industry supports the rapid development of national economy.The year 2016 is the first year of the 13th five-year plan and also a crucial year for the supply-side reform of the steel industry.According to the latest data from the national bureau of statistics, China produced 701 million tons of iron, 808 million tons of steel and 1.138 million tons of timber in 2016, an increase of 0.74 percent, 1.24 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, over the previous year.In addition, China's crude steel output in the first half of 2017 was 347 million tons, up 4.4 percent year-on-year.It can be seen from figure 1-1 that the growth rate of crude steel production in China is slowing down, and the growth rate has been declining continuously since 2013. In 2014, crude steel production reached a peak of 823 million tons.In 2015, crude steel output dropped by 2.3%. On the one hand, it indicates that under the new normal of economic growth, the reduction of demand from downstream industries has a significant impact on the steel industry.On the other hand, it shows that under the joint efforts of the government and the industry, part of the capacity under construction in China's iron and steel industry has withdrawn from the market, and the action of "cutting capacity and reducing output" has achieved initial results.Affected by trade friction and the rebound in domestic steel prices, China's steel exports have been on a downward trend since the second half of 2016.China exported 108.43 million tons of steel in 2016, down 3.5% or 3.96 million tons year-on-year.Imports of steel were 13.21 million tons, up 3.4 percent or 420,000 tons.Exports of steel fell, but imports rose slightly.This is different from the steady decline in steel imports during the 12th five-year plan period and the sharp rise in exports. In 2016, the net export of steel was 98.82 million tons, accounting for 12.23% of the total output of crude steel, down 0.57% from 2015.From the historical data, 2014 is the peak year of crude steel production, and 2013 is the peak year of crude steel apparent consumption.The apparent consumption of crude steel was 763 million tons in 2013 and 709 million tons in 2016.China's steel production to meet the domestic market demand.Profit and loss situation in recent years from the price level, the domestic market steel prices continue to decline.In 2016, the price of steel rose from the bottom, the fluctuation rose and moved to the reasonable price. The composite price index of steel rose from 56.37 points at the end of 2015 to 99.51 points at the end of 2016, which is the cyclical and reasonable return of market prices.But this is only out of the doldrums, not out of the woods yet.The profit margin on sales was only 1.08 percent, far less than the industrial average of 5.97 percent.At the same time, the current pattern of market supply outstripping demand remains unchanged, making it a good time to further reduce overcapacity.Energy conservation and environmental protection level (1) changes in energy consumption from January to May 2017, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel in key steel enterprises was further reduced to about 578kgce/t.As can be seen from the table, in recent years, the energy consumption of pellet, converter and steel processing in key statistics enterprises has been decreasing. Under the influence of increasingly strict environmental protection requirements, electricity consumption and energy consumption of environmental equipment have increased in sintering and other processes, resulting in no significant reduction or even a slight increase in process energy consumption.During the 13th five-year plan period, the energy consumption index of the steel industry continued to improve, and the utilization level of resources and secondary energy was further raised.The utilization rate of steel slag, blast furnace slag, iron-containing dust, blast furnace gas, converter gas and coke oven gas has been kept at a high level.(2) emission of pollutants energy conservation and environmental protection technology has been significantly improved.A number of new environmental technologies and facilities such as closed stock yard or silo, upgrading of dust removal system, comprehensive treatment of unorganized flue gas in iron output field, upgrading of coking sewage treatment and marking, deep treatment of comprehensive sewage, efficient treatment and comprehensive utilization of metallurgical slag have been promoted.The environmental quality of major steel enterprises has improved significantly.More and more iron and steel enterprises pay attention to strengthen internal management, environmental protection in the plant dust control and yard management, campus afforestation, vigorously strengthen the readjustment of the environment, environmental performance level improved significantly, many factory "level" in appearance to look brand-new, have produced a large number of "garden" environmentally friendly factory factory, and clean production.According to the data analysis of China iron and steel industry environmental protection statistics monthly report, 121 key large and medium-sized steel enterprises in China have significantly reduced the emission of smoke, dust, SO2 and NOx per ton of steel.The proportion of various energy consumption in the national total is shown in table 1-3.According to the statistical bulletin of national economic and social development 2015 issued by the national bureau of statistics, crude steel output in 2015 decreased by 2.2% and comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 0.56% on a year-on-year basis, indicating that total energy consumption of the industry has been on a downward trend.During the 13th five-year plan period, coal and water consumption is expected to be in direct proportion to crude steel output, which will decline with the decline of crude steel output. In addition, with the implementation of coal control plan, the proportion of coal in the energy structure of steel industry is expected to decrease gradually during the 13th five-year plan period.

产量变化情况 钢铁工业作为国民经济的重要基础产业，支撑了国民经济的快速发展。 2016 年是“十三五”开局之年，也是钢铁行业供给侧改革的攻坚之年。根据国家 统计局最新数据显示，2016 年，我国铁、钢、材产量分别为 7.01 亿吨、8.08 亿吨和 11.38 亿吨，同比分别增加 0.74%、1.24% 和 2.3%。此外，2017 年上半年我国粗钢产量为 3.47 亿吨，同比增加 4.4%。 由图 1-1 可见，我国粗钢产量增速放缓，自 2013 年开始增长幅度连续呈下降趋势，2014 年，粗钢产量 8.23 亿吨，产量达到峰值。2015 年，粗钢产量下降 2.3%，一方面 说明了经济增长新常态下，下游行业需求的降低对钢铁行业的影响显著；另一方面，体 现了在政府及行业的共同努力下，我国钢铁工业部分在建产能退出市场，“去产能、降 产量”的行动已取得初步成效。进出口情况 受贸易摩擦及国内钢材价格回升的影响，2016 年下半年以来我国钢材出口呈回落 的趋势。2016 年我国全年出口钢材 1.0843 亿吨，同比下降 3.5% 或 396 万吨。全年进 口钢材 1321 万吨，同比增长 3.4% 或 42 万吨。钢材出口量有所下降，但是进口量略有 上升。这与“十二五”以来钢材进口量稳定下降和但出口量急剧上升的趋势有所差异， 2016 年全年净出口钢材折粗钢 9882 万吨，占全年粗钢总产量的 12.23%，较 2015 年 下降 0.57%。消费情况 从历史数据看，截至目前，2014 年是粗钢产量峰值年，2013 年是粗钢表观消费峰 值年。2013 年粗钢表观消费量 7.63 亿吨，2016 年粗钢表观消费量为 7.09 亿吨。我国 钢材生产以满足国内市场需求为主。盈亏情况 近年来从价格水平看，国内市场钢材价格连续下跌。2016 年钢材价格从底部回升， 波动上行，向合理价位移动，钢材综合价格指数从 2015 年底的 56.37 点上升到 2016 年 底 99.51 点，这是市场价格周期性合理回归。但这仅仅是走出了低谷，还没有完全走出 困境。销售利润率只有 1.08%，远小于工业行业 5.97% 的平均水平。同时，当前市场供 大于求格局未变，是进一步推进化解过剩产能的好时机。节能环保水平 (1) 能耗变化情况2017 年 1-5 月，重点统计钢铁企业吨钢综合能耗进一步降低至约 578kgce/t。由表可知，近年来重点统计钢铁企业球团、转炉、钢加工工序能耗均呈现降低趋势， 受环保要求日益严格的影响，烧结等工序因环保设备用电及用能量上升，导致工序能耗 没有显著降低甚至略有增加。 “十三五”期间，钢铁行业能耗指标持续改善，资源、二次能源利用水平进一步提 高。钢铁企业推行清洁生产、提高资源和二次能源利用效率，钢渣利用率、高炉渣利用率、 含铁尘泥利用率、高炉煤气利用率、转炉煤气利用率和焦炉煤气利用率等均保持较高水平。 (2) 污染物排放情况节能环保技术水平明显提升。重点推广了封闭料场或筒仓、除尘系统升级、出铁场 无组织烟气综合治理、焦化污水处理提标改造、综合污水深度处理、冶金渣高效处理及 综合利用等一批环保新技术、新设施。 主要钢铁企业的环境质量明显改善。越来越多的钢铁企业注重加强内部环保管理， 加大厂区扬尘治理和料场规范管理，大力开展厂区绿化，加强环境治理整顿，环境绩效 水平明显提升，很多厂区“颜值”焕然一新，涌现了一大批“花园式”工厂、清洁生产 环境友好型工厂。 根据《中国钢铁工业环境保护统计月报》数据分析，我国 121 家重点大中型钢铁企 业平均吨钢排放烟粉尘、SO2 和 NOx 大幅下降。 能源消费比重 各种能源消费占全国总量比例情况如表 1-3。根据国家统计局《2015 年国民经 济和社会发展统计公报》，2015 年粗钢产量同比下降 2.2%、吨钢综合能耗同比下降 0.56%，行业能源消耗总量已成下降趋势。“十三五”期间预计煤炭和水量消耗是和粗 钢产量成正比的，会随着粗钢产量的下降而呈现下降趋势，且随着行业控煤规划的实施， “十三五”期间，煤炭占钢铁行业能源结构的比重预计将逐渐下降。