在过去的50年里，资源依赖型地区的繁荣和最终的萧条在全世界上演过多次。随着采掘业因资源枯竭、来自其他地方的竞争或能源消费的变化而衰退，人们要求提供补贴，以振兴采掘业并维持就业。与此同时，决策者意识到资源开采行业的衰退将造成社会和经济困难，开始寻找新的行业来取代失去的工作岗位，保持经济发展。 在中国，对空气污染、碳排放和不断变化的经济结构的担忧导致了一个转折点。在第十二届全国人民代表大会上，李克强总理承诺“让我们的天空再次蔚蓝”，强调了解决空气污染的计划（彭博社，2017年）。预计未来几十年煤炭消费量将下降。由于对产能过剩的担忧日益加剧，在2016年至2020年间，150千兆瓦的燃煤发电项目被取消或推迟（路透社，2017b）。在以煤炭为主要产业的山西等煤炭产区，改革计划对就业和经济构成威胁。 在山西，煤炭工业改革始于1999，最初是为了提高安全性和效率，随着非法矿山和小煤矿的关闭和工业的巩固。因此，煤矿的安全和环境绩效得到了改善，煤炭国有企业规模不断扩大。典型的煤矿现在的年产量超过90万吨。2013年，煤炭价格下跌，使负债累累的煤炭行业陷入亏损。据报道，为了避免违约，国有企业降低了工人的工资，并限制了煤矿的运营时间。此外，该地区政府还采取措施解决债务问题，帮助国有企业渡过危机。目前，在国家层面改革煤炭行业的雄心水平（政府明确承诺减少煤炭在电力行业的作用）和省级层面（煤炭仍然是工业政策的中心）之间存在着紧张关系。 本报告考察了山西煤炭转型的现状，并提出了如何管理改革的建议，以确保经济，社会和环境因素建立在这个过程中。这些建议借鉴了国际经验，特别是英国南威尔士、美国肯塔基州阿巴拉契亚和西班牙阿斯图里亚斯的案例研究总结的经验。山西的局势与本报告中的国际例子有许多相似之处。这些地区的经济严重依赖煤炭工业，许多地方机构对继续将经济重心放在煤炭生产上有着浓厚的兴趣。由于经济压力，包括资源枯竭和缺乏竞争力，这一机构面临着改革的政治压力，导致：威尔士和阿斯图里亚斯的国有企业亏损；环境压力，包括与煤炭有关的污染遗留问题造成的健康问题，特别是在肯塔基州；以及国家政治优先事项的变化，例如需要遵守欧盟（EU）对阿斯图里亚斯国家援助的限制。 国际政策制定者正越来越多地部署政策，限制煤炭的使用，并使以前的产煤地区重新焕发活力。例如，欧盟已同意在2018年前逐步取消对煤炭行业的所有国家援助（欧盟企业，2010年）；欧洲能源公司承诺在2020年后不修建任何新的燃煤电厂（联合国气候变化框架公约，2017年）；安大略省（加拿大）已完全淘汰燃煤发电（Harris，Beck，&Gerasimchuk，2015）；以及许多其他国家出台了额外的法规和税收，限制煤炭生产和使用。
The boom and eventual bust of resource-dependent regions has played out across the world many times over the last 50 years. As extractive industries go into decline due to resource exhaustion, competition from elsewhere or changing consumption of energy, demands are made for subsidies to revive the industry and maintain jobs. Concurrently, policy-makers, realizing that the decline of a resource extraction industry will cause social and economic hardship, begin the search for new industries to replace lost jobs and maintain economic development. In China, concerns over air pollution, carbon emissions and the changing economic structure have led to a turning point. At the 12th Annual People’s Congress, Prime Minister Li Keqiang pledged to “make our sky blue again,” highlighting plans to tackle air pollution (Bloomberg, 2017). Coal consumption is predicted to fall over the coming decades. Due to growing overcapacity concerns, 150 GW of coal-fired power projects have been cancelled or delayed between 2016 and 2020 (Reuters, 2017b). In coal-producing regions such as Shanxi province, where coal is the major industry, reform plans create a threat to employment and the economy. In Shanxi, coal industry reform started in 1999, initially to improve safety and efficiency, with the closure of illegal and small mines and the consolidation of the industry. As a result, safety and environmental performance of coal mines have improved and coal state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have grown large. Typical coal mines now have the capacity to produce over 900,000 tonnes per year. In 2013 the coal price fell, plunging the indebted coal industry into losses. To avoid defaults, SOEs are reported to have reduced the salaries of workers and restricted the operating hours of the coal mines. In addition, the regional government took steps to address debt and help the SOEs through the crisis. There is currently a tension between the level of ambition to reform the coal industry at the national level, where there is clear government commitment to reduce the role of coal in the electricity sector, and the provincial level, where coal remains at the centre of industrial policy. This report examines the current status of the coal transition in Shanxi and proposes recommendations for how reform can be managed to ensure that economic, social and environmental factors are built into the process. These recommendations draw on international experience, in particular, the experience summarized in case studies from South Wales in the United Kingdom, Appalachian Kentucky in the United States and Asturias in Spain. The situation in Shanxi shares a number of key similarities with the international examples in this report. The economies of these regions were heavily dependent on the coal industry and much of the local establishment had a strong interest in continuing to centre the economy on coal production. This establishment was confronted by political pressure to reform due to economic pressures, including resource exhaustion and a lack of competitiveness, leading to: losses by SOEs in Wales and Asturias; environmental pressures, including health concerns from a legacy of coal-related pollution, in particular in Kentucky; and changes in national political priorities, such as the need to comply with European Union (EU) restrictions on state aid in Asturias. International policy-makers are increasingly deploying policies to restrict the use of coal and to regenerate former coal-producing regions. For example, the EU has agreed to phase out all state aid to the coal industry by 2018 (EU Business, 2010); European energy companies have committed not to build any new coal plants after 2020 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2017); Ontario (Canada) has completely phased out coal-fired power generation (Harris, Beck, & Gerasimchuk, 2015); and many other countries have introduced additional regulations and taxes restricting coal production and use.
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