Research on Key Issues of Supply Side Reform in China's Coal Industry中国煤炭行业供给侧改革关键问题研究

1.1 to adapt to the national macroeconomic situation, China's economic growth has declined year by year since 2007, and the "troika" of investment, consumption and export on the demand side is obviously insufficient. As the growth rate changes from high speed to medium speed, the economic structure is bound to change significantly. In November 10, 2015, general secretary Xi Jinping put forward at the eleventh meeting of the central financial and economic leading group: "while moderately expanding the total demand, we should focus on strengthening the structural reform of the supply side, and strive to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system, and enhance the driving force for sustained economic growth". To a certain extent, it marks the transformation of China's economic management policy from demand side management to supply side management. Supply side structural reform will become an important driving force for China's economic growth in the next stage. In January 2016, general secretary Xi Jinping stressed at the Twelfth Meeting of the central financial and economic leading group that we should increase production capacity and inventory in a moderately expanded demand, strengthen quality supply from the production field, reduce inefficient supply, and make the supply system better adapt to the change of demand structure. 1.2 to adapt to the clean, low-carbon and environment-friendly development of coal industry, coal will remain the irreplaceable main energy in China for a period of time. General secretary Xi Jinping held the sixth meeting of the central financial and economic leading group in 2014, pointing out that we should vigorously promote clean and efficient utilization of coal and form a multi wheel drive energy supply system of coal, oil, gas, nuclear, new energy and renewable energy. There is a contradiction between short-term overcapacity and long-term resource shortage. In 2011, the reserves and reserve production ratio of the top 10 countries in the world's proved coal reserves are ranked third in China, but the reserve production ratio is the lowest among these 10 countries. Long term uncontrolled growth of demand and large-scale high-intensity development are unsustainable. The construction of ecological civilization forces the transformation of coal utilization mode. At present, the environmental problem has become the key problem restricting the sustainable development of our country, and the country will increase the efforts of atmospheric environment remediation. Clean and efficient utilization of coal will become an important part of energy security in China. 1.3 to adapt to the development of regional economy in recent years, as the country pays more and more attention to environmental pollution, ecological damage and other issues, the coal-based cities with the coal industry as the pillar are greatly impacted, and the urban development is facing more severe challenges. The industrial economy of coal cities and regions is relatively backward, and the level of national income is relatively low. Generally, the traditional industries formed by coal development tend to be aging, the leading industries are lack or poorly developed, and they have low interrelationship with different industrial sectors in the urban area, which has little effect on the whole regional economy. In addition, the ecological damage has a serious impact The sustainable development of regional economy and society lags behind other regions and cities. 1.4 the coal industry has the basis and opportunity for supply side structural reform, and the demand for coal consumption has declined. In recent years, due to the common factors such as the slowdown of economic growth, the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, the adjustment of energy structure and the protection of ecological environment, the demand for coal has declined substantially. According to the national statistical data, China's coal consumption reached a peak of 4.244 billion tons in 2013, and then gradually decreased. In 2014, the national coal consumption decreased by 2.9% year on year; in 2015, the national coal consumption decreased by 3.7% year on year, and the consumption decreased by 191 million tons. By the end of 2015, the total capacity of coal mines under construction and completed in China had reached 5.7 billion tons, and the demand for coal was less than 4 billion tons. The capacity construction is far ahead of schedule. Since 2006, the total investment in fixed assets of coal mining and beneficiation industry in China has reached 3.44 trillion yuan, with a total capacity of 3 billion tons. By the end of 2015, the scale of coal mining projects under construction in China has exceeded 1 billion tons, and the new capacity is in the period of centralized release. Coal stocks have exceeded 300 million tons for 48 consecutive months. Fixed investment decreased significantly. Fixed asset investment in coal mining and beneficiation industry in China has declined continuously since 2013. In the first eight months of 2016, the fixed asset investment in coal mining and beneficiation industry was 171.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%, an increase of 18.6 percentage points over the same period last year; among them, the private investment was 101 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.9%. Coal economy is down. By the end of 2015, the receivables of coal enterprises in China had reached a high level of 390 billion yuan. Overcapacity led to negative growth of PPI (factory price index of industrial products) for more than 40 consecutive months. According to the statistical data of China Coal Industry Association, 90% of coal enterprises are in the state of loss in 2015, and a large number of coal enterprises have the phenomenon of wage reduction and postponement. By the end of May 2016, the total liabilities of Coal Enterprises above Designated Size in China had reached 3.64 trillion yuan, with an average asset liability ratio of 67.7%. Remarkable achievements have been made in scientific and technological innovation. China's annual output of 10 million tons of comprehensive mining equipment, 20 million tons of large-scale open-pit mining equipment to achieve internationalization, intelligent working face technology to the international advanced level. Progress has been made in the localization of large-scale coal preparation technology and equipment. Demonstration projects of coal processing, such as million tons of coal to oil and 600000 tons of coal olefins, have been put into commercial operation. The technology of gas drainage in low permeability coal seam has made a breakthrough, forming a new integrated development mode of coal mining and gas production. The ecological environment of the mining area has been gradually improved. In China, the comprehensive management of mining subsidence area and waste dump has been strengthened, and the ecological restoration and environmental management of mining area have achieved remarkable results. Vigorously develop circular economy, promote clean production in coal mines, and improve the comprehensive utilization level of coal gangue, mine water, coalbed methane (coal mine gas) and other resources. The transformation of shantytowns is accelerated, and the production and living environment of employees is further improved

1.1 适应国家宏观经济形势 自 2007 年以来中国经济增速逐年下滑，需求侧的投资、消费、出口 “ 三驾马车 ” 明 显动力不足。增长速度由高速向中高速转变，经济结构必然发生重大变化。 2015 年 11 月 10 日，习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组第十一次会议上提出：“ 在 适度扩大总需求的同时，着力加强供给侧结构性改革，着力提高供给体系质量和效率， 增强经济持续增长动力 ”。在一定程度上，标志着我国的经济管理政策由需求侧管理向供 给侧管理转变，供给侧结构性改革将成为我国下一阶段经济增长的重要推动力。2016 年 1 月，习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组第十二次会议上强调，要在适度扩大总需求的同 时去产能、去库存，从生产领域加强优质供给，减少无效供给，使供给体系更好适应需 求结构变化。 1.2 适应煤炭行业清洁、低 碳、环境友好型发展 煤炭在一段时期内仍将是我国不可替代的主体能源。习近平总书记在 2014 年 召开的中央财经领导小组第六次会议指出，要大力推进煤炭清洁高效利用，形成煤、油、 气、核、新能源、可再生能源多轮驱动的能源供应体系。 短期产能过剩与长期资源不足形成矛盾。2011 年世界煤炭探明储量前 10 位国家 的储量和储采比，中国煤炭探明储量列第三位，但储采比在这 10 个国家中最低。长期无 节制增长的需求与大规模高强度开发，是不可持续的。 生态文明建设倒逼煤炭利用方式转变。目前，环境问题已经成为制约我国可持续 发展的关键问题，国家将加大大气环境整治力度。煤炭的清洁高效利用将成为我国能源 安全的重要内容。1.3 适应区域经济发展 近年来，随着国家对环境污染、生态破坏等问题越来越重视，以煤炭产业为支柱的 煤炭型城市受到较大冲击，城市发展面临着较为严峻的挑战。 煤炭型城市和地区的产业经济相对较为落后，国民收入水平相对较低，一般多是以 煤炭开发形成的传统产业，发展已趋于老化，主导产业缺乏或发育较差，且与城市区域 内不同产业部门之间相互联系较低，对整个区域经济的联带作用较小，加之生态破坏， 严重影响了这些地区经济的可持续发展，区域经济、社会综合发展水平落后于其他地区 和城市。 1.4 煤炭行业已具备供给侧 结构性改革的基础和时机 煤炭消费需求下降。近年来，受经济增速放缓、经济结构转型升级、能源结构调 整、生态环境保护等共同因素影响，煤炭需求大幅度下降。根据国家统计数据，2013 年 中国煤炭消费量达到峰值 42.44 亿吨，进而逐步下降，2014 年，全国煤炭消费量同比下 降 2.9%；2015 年全国煤炭消费量同比下降 3.7%，消费量减少 1.91 亿吨。截至 2015 年底， 我国共有建成和在建煤矿合计产能达到 57 亿吨，煤炭需求不足 40 亿吨。 产能建设大幅超前。2006 年以来，全国煤炭采选业固定资产累计投资 3.44 万亿元， 累计新增产能 30 亿吨，截至 2015 年底，全国煤矿在建项目规模超过 10 亿吨，新增产能 正处于集中释放期。煤炭库存已连续 48 个月超过 3 亿吨。 固定投资明显减少。全国煤炭采选业固定资产投资自 2013 年以来连续下降。2016 年前 8 个月煤炭采选业固定资产投资 1716 亿元，同比下降 33%，降幅比去年同期扩大 18.6 个百分点；其中民间投资 1010 亿元，下降 29.9%。 煤炭经济下行。截至 2015 年底，全国煤炭企业应收账款已经达到 3900 亿元的高位。 产能过剩引发 PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）连续 40 多月负增长。根据中国煤炭工业协会统计数据，2015 年已有 90% 的煤炭企业处于亏损状态，大量煤炭企业出现了减发、缓发 工资的现象。截至 2016 年 5 月底，我国规模以上煤炭企业负债总额 3.64 万亿元，平均资 产负债率达到 67.7%。 科技创新成效显著。我国年产千万吨级综采成套设备、年产 2000 万吨级大型露天 矿成套设备实现国际化，智能工作面技术达到国际先进水平。大型选煤技术和装备国产 化取得进展百万吨级煤制油和 60 万吨煤质烯烃等煤炭加工示范项目实现商业化运行。低 透气性煤层瓦斯抽采等技术取得突破，形成采煤采气一体化开发新模式。 矿区生态环境逐步改善。我国加大对采煤沉陷区和排矸场综合治理力度，矿区生 态修复和环境治理成效明显。大力发展循环经济，推行煤矿清洁生产，煤矸石、矿井水、 煤层气（煤矿瓦斯）等资源综合利用水平不断提高。棚户区改造加快推进，职工生产生 活环境进一步改善。 目前，我国总体经济发展到了一定的水平，据国家统计局 2016 年 1 月 19 日公布的 经济数据显示，2015 年中国全年国内生产总值（GDP）67.67 万亿元，在世界排名第二， 2015 年我国人均 GDP 达到 5.2 万元，已接近中等偏上国家平均收入水平。国家领导层加 大对供给侧改革的关注和支持力度，我国现已具备了供给侧结改革的基础与时机，现阶 段我国煤炭行业实施供给侧改革，将对我国经济发展产生深远影响。