首页 > 资料下载 > 页岩气繁荣时期油价下跌对美国经济的影响The Implications of Lower Oil Prices for the US Economy Amid the Shale Boom
页岩气繁荣时期油价下跌对美国经济的影响The Implications of Lower Oil Prices for the US Economy Amid the Shale Boom 页岩气繁荣时期油价下跌对美国经济的影响The Implications of Lower Oil Prices for the US Economy Amid the Shale Boom

页岩气繁荣时期油价下跌对美国经济的影响The Implications of Lower Oil Prices for the US Economy Amid the Shale Boom

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  • 更新时间：2021-09-17
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油价下跌通常被视为美国和其他石油净进口国的经济意外之财。事实上，自6月份以来，近期原油价格意外下跌近40%，这已转化为常规泵油价格下跌近1美元，至12月1日美国各地平均每加仑油价下跌2.78美元。 价格暴跌是由几个因素推动的，包括大型消费国的经济疲软，特别是中国，过去十年中国一直是全球石油需求增长的引擎；由于页岩油革命，美国原油产量惊人增长，自2008年以来每天增加了近400万桶；以及利比亚等国向市场供应的部分中断物资的回流。巴格达最近与库尔德地区当局达成的增加伊拉克出口的协议可能会进一步增加石油的市场 上周，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）宣布，尽管油价下跌，同时依赖石油的经济体也面临压力，但欧佩克将把产量保持在3000万桶/日的稳定水平，而不是削减产量，此后油价暴跌。欧佩克内部的许多国家，如委内瑞拉和利比亚，都希望通过降价来提振油价，但这些国家不愿意或无法承担大幅降价的责任，而是希望其他国家，特别是欧佩克的最大产油国沙特阿拉伯，能退一步。沙特王国是世界上唯一一个拥有大量闲置产能的国家，过去一直扮演着摇摆生产国的角色，帮助平衡市场。然而，沙特阿拉伯拒绝减产，除非其他欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国也这样做，这显然是为了保护市场份额，并可能迫使美国石油生产国削减产量 对于一些生产商来说，缺乏减产协议无疑是痛苦的。伊朗和委内瑞拉有很高的收入需求来为社会承诺提供资金。俄罗斯极易受到油价下跌的影响，尤其是在经济制裁的影响下，本周卢布暴跌就是一例。其他国家，如利比亚和伊朗，生产量已经远远低于历史水平。 对美国来说，油价下跌对经济的影响正在出现新的问题。美国现在是世界上最大的石油生产国和消费国，因此较低的油价创造了经济赢家和输家。这份政策简报探讨了油价大幅下跌对美国整体经济的影响。

INTRODUCTION Declines in oil prices are generally seen as an economic windfall for the United States and other net petroleum importers. Indeed, the recent unexpected drop of nearly 40% in crude prices since June has translated to a drop in regular pump prices of nearly $1, to an average of $2.78 per gallon across the United States on December 1. The price slump has been driven by several factors, including economic weakness in large consuming countries, particularly China, which had been the engine of global oil demand growth over the last decade; an astonishing increase in US crude production due to the shale oil revolution that has added nearly 4 million barrels per day since 2008; and the return of some disrupted supplies to the market from countries like Libya. Baghdad’s recent deal with Kurdish regional authorities to increase Iraqi exports could add further barrels to the market.1 Last week, prices plunged after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced it would hold production steady at 30 million b/d rather than cut output, despite the price drop and the concomitant pressure on oil-reliant economies. Many countries within OPEC, such as Venezuela and Libya, wanted a cut to boost prices, but these countries were unwilling or unable to shoulder significant reductions and instead looked for others, especially the group’s top producer Saudi Arabia, to pull back. The Kingdom, the only country in the world with significant spare capacity, has played the role of swing producer in the past to help balance the market. Saudi Arabia, however, refused to cut production unless other OPEC and nonOPEC producers did so as well, in an apparent bid to protect market share and potentially force curtailments from US oil producers.2 The lack of an agreement to reduce output will no doubt be painful for some producers. Iran and Venezuela have high revenue needs to fund social commitments. Russia is extremely vulnerable to falling oil prices, particularly on top of the impact of economic sanctions, as seen in the collapse of the ruble this week. Others, like Libya and Iran, are already producing far below their historic levels. For the United States, new questions are emerging about the economic impact of lower oil prices. The US is now the world’s largest petroleum producer3 and consumer, so lower prices creates both economic winners and losers. This policy brief explores the overall economic impacts of a sharp drop in oil prices for the United States.

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