首页 > 资料下载 > 对于减产，石油市场看重欧佩克，但欧佩克看重美国页岩。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh
对于减产，石油市场看重欧佩克，但欧佩克看重美国页岩。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh 对于减产，石油市场看重欧佩克，但欧佩克看重美国页岩。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh

对于减产，石油市场看重欧佩克，但欧佩克看重美国页岩。For Production Cuts, Oil Market Looks to OPEC, but OPEC looks toward US Sh

  • 资料类别：
  • 资料大小：
  • 资料编号：
  • 资料状态：
  • 更新时间：2021-09-17
  • 下载次数：次
会员下载(2点)
VIP会员下载(0点)
游客扫码下载(2点)
资料简介

随着布伦特油价在经济增长乏力的情况下跌至每桶90美元以下的四年低点，市场参与者开始怀疑，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）何时会介入并减产，试图阻止油价进一步下滑。许多石油市场人士认为，欧佩克别无选择，只能采取行动，防止价格下跌威胁到其预算稳定，而这一水平因国家而异，但对沙特阿拉伯而言，估计约为每桶85-90美元。然而，欧佩克（OPEC）领导人沙特阿拉伯，以及科威特和阿联酋最近都表示，不急于降低生产水平以支持价格，1一名沙特官员暗示，平衡市场所需的任何削减都必须由美国生产商承担。因此，油价下跌和沙特的退缩姿态引发了关键问题：从美国生产商那里获取供应削减需要什么样的价格水平？而这将如何影响美国页岩油热潮，近年来页岩油一直是美国经济增长的基石？如果要求美国石油公司扮演“摇摆生产商”的角色，这将不是第一次。德州铁路委员会（Texas Railway Commission）的官员下令从二战前到1972年的几十年内改变供应，以防止破坏性的价格波动，抵消供应中断，例如在1956年和1967年中断全球供应的阿以冲突期间。然而，目前，如果欧佩克指望美国重新扮演其摇摆不定的生产国角色，其运营动力将是价格，而不是政府的菲亚特。部分取决于为了平衡市场必须减少多少供应，美国勘探和生产公司“大汗淋漓”削减的过程可能会被证明是一个要求很高的过程 对在有限面积和过度扩张的资本上工作的较小的独立人士的挑战。此外，“成功”可能会引发人们对美国页岩或轻质致密油（LTO）繁荣的长期健康状况的担忧，并重新引发对原油出口等政策影响的辩论。

As Brent oil prices grind to four-year lows below $90 per barrel amid faltering economic growth, market participants are beginning to wonder when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will step in and cut production in an attempt to halt further slippage. Many in the oil market assume OPEC has little choice but to act to prevent lower prices that threaten their budget stability, a level that varies by country but for Saudi Arabia is estimated to be around $85-90 per barrel. However, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, along with Kuwait and UAE, has recently signaled it is in no hurry to lower production levels to support prices,1 with one Saudi official implying any cuts needed to balance the market must be shouldered by US producers. The oil price drop and stand-back Saudi posture thus raises key questions: What price level would be required to extract supply cuts from US producers? And how would this affect the US shale oil boom, which has been a cornerstone of the nation’s economic growth in recent years? If US oil companies are asked to play the “swing producer” role, it will not be the first time. Officials at the Texas Railroad Commission ordered supply changes for many decades, from before World War Two until 1972, to prevent damaging price swings and offset supply disruptions, such as during the Arab-Israeli conflicts that disrupted global supplies in 1956 and 1967. At present, however, if OPEC looks to the US to reprise its swing producer role, the operating driver will be price not government fiat. Depending partly on how much supply must be reduced to balance the market, the process of “sweating out” cuts from US exploration and production companies could prove to be a demanding challenge for smaller independents working on limited acreage and overstretched capital. Moreover, “success” might raise concerns about the longer-term health of the US shale or light tight oil (LTO) boom and renew debate on policy implications such as crude oil exports.

资料截图
版权：如无特殊注明，文章转载自网络，侵权请联系cnmhg168#163.com删除！文件均为网友上传，仅供研究和学习使用，务必24小时内删除。
无法下载/下载错误/文件打不开/点这里
热门推荐