首页 > 资料下载 > UKERC全球石油消耗证据审查技术报告5：估算最终可采资源的方法UKERC Review of Evidence for Global Oil Depletion Technical Report 5

UKERC全球石油消耗证据审查技术报告5：估算最终可采资源的方法UKERC Review of Evidence for Global Oil Depletion Technical Report 5

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更新时间：2021-09-17
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石油资源最终枯竭的日期在很大程度上与“石油峰值”的争论无关。相反，这场辩论的主要焦点是生产率（通常以每天的桶数衡量）以及为什么这一比率最终必须下降的原因。然而，尽管石油资源的绝对规模不如潜在开采率重要，但围绕前者的争议在石油峰值争论中发挥了突出作用。这尤其适用于继续主导全球石油供应的常规石油。在其他条件相同的情况下，对常规石油资源规模的更大估计将导致对未来全球石油供应的更乐观预测，反之亦然。因此，对未来全球供应的“悲观者”和“乐观者”对可能具有经济可采性的常规石油资源量的看法往往大相径庭。

The date of ultimate exhaustion of the oil resource is largely irrelevant to the „peak oil‟ debate. Instead, the primary focus of this debate is the rate of production (typically measured in barrels per day) and the reasons why that rate must eventually decline. But while the absolute size of an oil resource is less important than the potential rate of extraction of that resource, disputes over the former nevertheless play a prominent role in the peak oil debate. This is especially the case for conventional oil which continues to dominate global oil supply. Other things being equal, larger estimates of the resource size for conventional oil lead to more optimistic forecasts for future global oil supply – and vice versa. Hence, the „pessimists‟ and „optimists‟ about future global supply often have very different views on the volume of conventional oil resources that are likely to be economically recoverable.

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UKERC全球石油消耗证据审查技术报告5：估算最终可采资源的方法UKERC Review of Evidence for Global Oil Depletion Technical Report 5

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