重塑车轮：汽车、石油、化工和电力的未来Reinventing the Wheel:The future of cars,oil, chemicals, and electric power

汽车、石油、化工和电力的未来主要的颠覆性力量正在重塑能源、汽车和化工行业。交通是这些变化的核心。各种力量汇聚在一起，加速了这一转变的步伐和性质，为交通运输业指出了一个新的现实——具有深远的影响。要理解这些变化，需要一个广阔的视角。目前大多数分析都采用单一行业的方法。到目前为止，还没有一个系统范围内的分析，带来了一个深入了解的力量，在每个行业-汽车;石油和天然气;电力;还有化学物质，以及它们之间的相互作用。IHS Markit在每个行业中都提供了独特的能力和专业知识，并且能够跨行业查看它们之间的交互。本研究利用我们领先的专业知识，以及我们的行业关系，邀请和召集来自这些行业的关键参与者参加互动研讨会，为关键利益相关者带来新的观点和见解。研究结果于2017年9月发布，展示了一个全新的集成知识领域和强大而独特的场景，为开发和测试战略提供了行业特有的重要影响。这个知识体系和基于场景的框架使公司能够分析在全球经济中占很大比重的能源汽车化学合成物所面临的机会、挑战，甚至是存在的威胁。-对汽车行业而言，新进入者和新技术正开始挑战现有公司及其供应商。今天的大型制造商和供应商能否在未来几年保住自己的位置?20年后谁会是球员?-对石油和天然气工业来说，影响是至关重要的。目前，主导个人交通工具的汽车占全球成品油需求的三分之一以上。交通运输总量占全球消费总量的55%。汽车/拼车和自动驾驶汽车等新的交通选择是否会加速全球石油消耗的峰值?如果石油放弃其在交通运输领域的主导地位，其影响可能会深刻地重塑能源供应和需求。这样的变化将在全球范围内对相邻行业产生影响。天然气能在交通运输中发挥更大的作用吗?-对于化学品，结果将深刻影响一个主要市场，影响现有的原料，并对公司的投资和竞争战略具有重要影响。——在电力领域，交通运输被视为可能的需求增长新领域。政策、法规、投资、运营和客户关系的影响是什么?电池技术的发展是否改变了公共事业与交通运输之间的关系，创造了新的竞争动力?电动汽车将如何适应更加分散的电力行业的新模式?IHS Markit拥有汽车、石油、电力和化学行业的领先分析师，为未来的变化提供了无与伦比的洞察力。我们在这些行业的建模专家提供了全面的分析和数据集——一个高价值的组合，在这些行业的未来将是一个动荡的时期，指导决策。该项目由Daniel Yergin主持，他是IHS Markit的副主席，普利策奖获得者，也是《The Prize and The Quest》的作者。项目主管为Jim Burkhard、Tom De Vleesschauwer和Tiffany Groode。项目顾问有阿图尔艾里亚、蒂姆阿姆斯特朗、杰米罗森菲尔德和戴夫维特。商业总监是凯特哈丁、比约恩胡特和安东尼帕尔默。项目经理是Chelsea Havill。IHS Markit的汽车、能源和化学研究团队的顶级分析师都参与了这项研究。

The future of cars,  oil, chemicals, and electric power

Major disruptive forces are now reshaping the energy, automotive,  and chemical industries. Transportation is at the nexus of these  changes. Forces are converging to accelerate the pace and nature of  this transformation, pointing to a new reality for transportation—with  profound implications.  A broad perspective is necessary to make sense of these changes.  Most current analysis takes a single-industry approach. Thus far,  there has not been a system-wide analysis that brings to bear a deep  understanding of the forces at work within each industry-automotive;  oil and gas; electric power; and chemicals—and the interplay among  these. IHS Markit uniquely offers the capability and expertise within  each industry and the ability to look across industries and at how  they interact.  This study leverages our leading expertise, as well as our industry  relationships, to engage and convene key participants from across  these industries in interactive workshops to bring new perspectives  and insights from the range of key stakeholders. The results, published  in September 2017, present a new integrated knowledge universe and  powerful, unique scenarios that provide industry–specific implications  essential for developing and testing strategies.  This knowledge universe and scenarios-based framework enables  companies to analyze the opportunities, challenges, and even  existential threats facing the energy-automotive-chemicals complex,  which looms so large in the global economy. ‒ For the automotive industry, new entrants and technologies are  beginning to challenge incumbent companies and their suppliers.  Will today’s large manufacturers and suppliers hold their positions in  the years ahead? Who will be the players 20 years from now? ‒ For the oil and gas industry, the implications are critical. The cars  that dominate personal transport currently account for more  than one-third of global refined product demand. Transportation,  altogether, represents fifty-five percent of total world consumption.  Will new mobility options such as car/ride sharing and autonomous  vehicles accelerate the peaking of world oil consumption. If oil cedes  its position as the dominant fuel in transport, the repercussions  could profoundly reshape energy supply and demand. Such a  change would reverberate globally across adjacent industries.  Can natural gas find an expanded role in transportation?‒ For chemicals, the outcome will deeply impact a major market, affect available feedstocks, and have  critical implications for companies’ investments and competitive strategy. ‒ For electric power, transportation is seen as a possible new frontier for demand growth. What are the  policy, regulation, investment, operational, and customer relationship ramifications? Does battery  technology evolution change the game in coupling utilities to transportation creating new competition  dynamics? How will electric cars fit into the new paradigms of a more distributed electric power industry? With leading analysts in the automotive, oil, electric power, and chemical sectors, IHS Markit offers  unparalleled insight into the coming changes. Our modeling expertise in these industries delivers  comprehensive analytics and datasets—a high-value combination to guide decision making during what  will be a tumultuous period for the future of these industries. The project is chaired by Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman, Pulitzer Prize winner, and author of The  Prize and The Quest. Project Directors are Jim Burkhard, Tom De Vleesschauwer, and Tiffany Groode. Project  Advisors are Atul Arya, Tim Armstrong, Jamey Rosenfield, and Dave Witte. Commercial Directors are Kate  Hardin, Bjoern Huetter, and Anthony Palmer. Project Manager is Chelsea Havill. Top analysts throughout IHS  Markit’s automotive, energy, and chemical research teams are engaged in the study.