页岩油气盈利的五个阶段PROFITING FROM SHALE IN FIVE PHASES

自2000年美国商业开发页岩油以来，页岩油已经促使全球石油市场格局发生根本性变化。政界人士和行业专家都称赞页岩油是北美实现能源独立的最佳路径，页岩油的生产方法(如水力压裂)彻底改变了油气采收率，并以前所未有的速度产生了创纪录的石油产量。然而，某些预测—对页岩储量增长速度的预测、油价下跌对页岩储量的潜在影响程度、页岩开发何时以及如何实现长期盈利的预测——基本上都没有抓住问题的关键，页岩开发的故事仍然有些神秘。

Since the commercial development of shale oil in the United States in 2000, shale oil has made a fundamental change in the global oil market pattern. Politicians and industry experts have praised shale oil as the best way to achieve energy independence in North America. Shale oil production methods (such as hydraulic fracturing) have completely changed oil and gas recovery and produced record oil production at an unprecedented rate. However, some predictions - the prediction of shale reserves growth rate, the potential impact of oil price decline on shale reserves, and the prediction of when and how shale development will achieve long-term profitability - basically fail to grasp the key to the problem, and the story of shale development is still mysterious.