新现实、新风险:战略石油储备的再思考NEW REALITIES, NEW RISKS: RETHINKING THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE
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- 更新时间:2021-09-17
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现代石油市场的现实使人们对美国紧急石油储备的必要性产生了疑问。40多年来,美国战略石油储备(SPR)一直是美国石油市场和全球供应冲击之间的缓冲区。作为1973-1974年石油禁运的副产品,SPR诞生于美国原油产量下降、进口上升、石油市场由石油输出国组织(OPEC)主导的时代。在此期间,随着石油市场规模越来越大、越来越深、流动性越来越强、一体化程度越来越高,从而更能够解决以前会给石油进口国带来更大痛苦的各种规模的短缺,石油储备只被动用了几次。然而,就美国国家石油供应安全而言,或许最大的变化是,过去10年,由于页岩和其他致密油矿床的水力压裂,国内石油产量激增。因此,美国新能源财富(new energy fortune)引发了一种观点,即过去获得两党广泛支持的SPR可以被出售,以填补支出漏洞,而不会产生重大的能源安全风险。美国国会已经通过了几项措施,通过在未来十年中交错进行的一系列削减,大幅削减SPR的规模。关于SPR是否变得太大或完全无用,或是否应该保持完整的新出现的重要讨论,促使哥伦比亚大学国际与公共事务学院全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)研究如何进入现代石油市场,乃至更广泛的全球能源体系,以及美国是否会从修改或取消这一体系中获益。
The realities of the modern oil market have thrown into question the need for the US emergency oil stockpile. For more than 40 years, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has existed as a buffer between US oil markets and global supply shocks. A byproduct of the 1973–1974 oil embargo, the SPR was born in an age when US crude production was in decline, imports were rising, and the oil market was dominated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Over the intervening years, the reserve was tapped only a handful of times as the oil market has grown much larger, deeper, more liquid, and better integrated and thus more able to address shortfalls of various magnitudes that previously would have caused greater pain for oil-importing countries. In regard to US national oil supply security, however, perhaps the greatest change has been the boom in domestic production over the past decade due to hydraulic fracturing of shale and other tight oil deposits. The new US energy fortune has thus given rise to a view that the SPR—which formerly enjoyed wide bipartisan support—could be sold off to plug spending holes without creating significant energy security risks. The US Congress has already passed several measures to significantly pare down the size of the SPR through a series of drawdowns staggered over the coming decade. The emerging and important discussion over whether the SPR has become too large or altogether useless, or whether it should be kept whole, prompted the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs to research how the SPR fits into the modern oil market—and indeed the wider global energy system—and whether the United States would benefit from modifying or eliminating it.
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