首页 > 资料下载 > 理解特朗普政府的燃油经济性标准回落MAKING SENSE OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK
理解特朗普政府的燃油经济性标准回落MAKING SENSE OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK 理解特朗普政府的燃油经济性标准回落MAKING SENSE OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK

理解特朗普政府的燃油经济性标准回落MAKING SENSE OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK

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  • 更新时间：2021-09-20
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2018年4月2日，美国环境保护署（EPA）宣布，2022-2025车型年的计划燃油经济性增长轿车和轻型卡车过于严格，应予以修订。1因此，EPA与美国国家公路运输安全管理局（National Highway Transportation Safety Administration）合作，启动了制定2022-2025新标准的程序（国家公路交通安全管理局）。 尽管这些机构最终可能会放宽燃油经济性标准，但不到2021年标准的全面倒退，这意味着，为了说明的目的，我们评估了全面倒退对汽油消费、石油进口和碳排放的影响。考虑到机构2016年的分析表明，全面的回退总体上会损害社会，我们讨论了2016年分析的哪些变化可能导致机构得出回退有益于社会的结论。 为了便于讨论这些重要的公共政策问题，本文对环保署的声明提出两点看法： 由于道路车辆车队的逐步更替，取消2022-2025年更严格的燃油经济性标准对这些年甚至2030年的汽油消耗、温室气体排放和石油进口影响不大。然而，较低标准的最终影响可能会更大，特别是如果它们损害了新技术的进步以及美国和其他国家在长期内收紧标准的政治势头。 自2016年分析以来，碳排放的社会成本、燃料价格、行驶里程和轻型卡车的市场份额的变化不太可能导致削减标准的收益超过成本。如果这些机构得出结论认为，削减标准的好处超过了成本，那么理由很可能是基于其他因素，比如消费者愿意为节油技术买单，或者这些技术的成本和有效性。

On April 2, 2018, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that planned fuel economy increases for model year 2022–2025 cars and light trucks are too stringent and should be revised.1 The EPA thus initiated a process to set new standards for 2022–2025, in partnership with the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA). Although the agencies may eventually ease fuel economy standards less than a full rollback of the standards to 2021 levels would imply, for illustrative purposes we assess the implications of a full rollback for gasoline consumption, oil imports, and carbon emissions. Given that the agencies’ 2016 analysis suggests that a full rollback would harm society on balance, we discuss which changes to the 2016 analysis might lead the agencies to conclude that a rollback benefits society. To facilitate discussion of these important public policy issues, this paper makes two points about the EPA’s announcement: Due to the gradual turnover of the on-road vehicle fleet, eliminating the tighter fuel economy standards for 2022–2025 would have small effects on gasoline consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and oil imports during those years and even out to 2030. However, the ultimate impact of the weaker standards could be greater, especially if they hurt the progress of new technologies and the political momentum for tighter standards in the United States and in other countries over the longer term. Changes in the social cost of carbon, fuel prices, miles traveled, and market shares of light trucks since the 2016 analysis are unlikely to cause the benefits of rolling back the standards to exceed the costs. If the agencies conclude that the benefits of rolling back the standards exceed the costs, the reasoning will likely be based on other factors, such as consumer willingness to pay for fuel-saving technologies or the cost and effectiveness of those technologies.

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