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燃料补贴制度的改革对于尼日利亚经济的全面改革以及实现包容性和可持续的经济多样化和增长至关重要。近年来，燃料补贴占经常预算的三分之一以上，构成了巨大的资源浪费，本来可以更有效地用于扶贫干预经济。由于担心价格大幅上涨带来的政治后果，再加上腐败现象普遍存在，以及燃油补贴制度受益者的压力，历届政府都对改革燃油补贴制度犹豫不决。然而，人们对改革的必要性越来越达成共识，改革的核心是取消燃油补贴。 这项研究最初于2015年夏季进行，其主要目的是对补偿机制进行详细分析，这些补偿机制可用于减轻取消燃料补贴对尼日利亚社会弱势群体的影响，作为对政府围绕即将到来的改革进行规划的投入。这次以来，布哈里政府对汽油和煤油补贴进行了重大改革，出台了新的“调价”政策，在供应出现重大问题的同时，这两种燃料的价格在2016年初都出现了上调，推动国内许多地区的价格高于官方水平。根据截至2016年年中的现行政策内容，本研究的结论与以往一样具有相关性：建议政府在决定必须减轻未来物价持续上涨的社会影响时，可以采取的可行建议；同时，考虑到补贴改革所创造的财政空间，建议政府在一般预算中投资的扶贫政策。 这项分析的动力是必须找到一种更有效的方式，将燃料补贴预算重新分配给直接惠及穷人的发展活动。该研究的方法论方法借鉴了尼日利亚和其他国家在燃料补贴改革方面已经做的大量工作（例如，尼日利亚石油部门透明度基金（FOSTER）、公共政策替代中心（CPPA）、全球补贴倡议（GSI），世界银行和国际货币基金组织（货币基金组织）。它包括分析尼日利亚的各种现有机制的第三方文件，可以用于补偿穷人的经济政策的不利影响，补充了一系列关键的线人访谈（KIIS）与主要利益相关者参与这些机制的实施。该分析还借鉴了与补贴改革有关的补偿机制的国际经验，重点是与尼日利亚相当的国家，并考虑了尼日利亚政府围绕过去国内价格改革所采用的补偿机制的有效性。
The reform of the fuel subsidy regime is fundamental to the overhaul of the Nigerian economy and achievement of inclusive—and sustainable—economic diversification and growth. In recent years, fuel subsidy has taken up over a third of the recurrent budget, constituting a huge waste of resources that could have been spent more effectively on pro-poor interventions in the economy. Fear of the political consequences of large price increases coupled with widespread corruption and pressure from those benefiting from the fuel subsidy regime have made successive governments hesitant to reform the system. However, there has been a growing consensus on the imperative of reform, at the heart of which is the elimination of fuel subsidies. When it was initially conducted in the summer of 2015, the main objective of this study was to conduct a detailed analysis of the compensation mechanisms that could be used to mitigate the impact of fuel subsidy removal on weak and vulnerable segments of Nigerian society, as an input to government planning around upcoming reforms. Since this time, the Buhari government has introduced major reforms to gasoline and kerosene subsidies, with the a new “price modulation” policy that has seen upward adjustments in the price of both fuels in early 2016—at the same time that major problems with supply continue, driving domestic prices above official levels in many areas. In the light of the current policy content as of mid-2016, the findings of this study are as relevant as ever: suggesting actionable proposals that the government could pursue if it decides that it must mitigate the social impact of ongoing future price increases; and also suggesting pro-poor policies where the government could invest as part of its general budgeting, given the fiscal space created by subsidy reforms. The analysis is driven by the imperative of achieving a more efficient way of reallocating the fuel subsidy budget for developmental activities that directly benefit the poor. The study’s methodological approach draws on extensive work already done on the reform of fuel subsidy in Nigeria and other countries (e.g., by the Facility for Oil Sector Transparency in Nigeria (FOSTER), the Center for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA), the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI), World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It consists of analyzing third-party documentation about various existing mechanisms in Nigeria that can be used to compensate the poor for the adverse effects of economic policy, supplemented by a series of Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with major stakeholders involved in the implementation of these mechanisms. The analysis also draws on a review of international experiences with compensation mechanisms related to subsidy reform, focused on countries comparable to Nigeria, and considers the effectiveness of compensation mechanisms applied by Nigerian governments around past domestic price reforms.
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