朝鲜核武器: 技术问题North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues
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这份报告总结了从公开来源了解的关于朝鲜核问题的情况。 武器计划-包括武器用裂变材料和弹头估计-以及 评估实现无核化的当前发展。很少详细的开源 有关朝鲜核武器生产能力、弹头的信息可以获得 铀浓缩项目的复杂程度、范围和成功程度 增殖活性。据估计,朝鲜的总重量在30至50公斤之间。 分离钚,足够制造至少六枚核武器。而朝鲜 武器项目从一开始就以钚为基础,在过去的十年里,情报部门一直在进行这项工作。 出现并指出使用高浓缩铀制造炸弹的第二条路线。北韩 2009年,中国公开承认了一项铀浓缩计划,但曾表示,其目标是 生产用于核能的燃料。2010年11月,朝鲜展示了访问美国的情景。 100MWT轻水反应堆和新建气体离心机的早期建造 铀浓缩工厂,都在宁边工地。朝鲜人要求进行浓缩。 工厂已投入运行,但尚未得到独立确认。美国官员说, 可能还有其他的秘密浓缩设施。从2002年底开始,朝鲜 终止了为期8年的钚生产冻结计划,并被驱逐出境。 检查员和重新启动设施。2005年9月,六方会谈成员(联合) 美国、韩国、日本、中国、俄罗斯和北韩)发表了一项联合声明 可核查的朝鲜半岛无核化。2006年10月9日,北韩进行了军事演习。 核试验,产量小于1千吨。2007年2月,朝鲜和其他国家 六方会谈成员商定了分阶段实施2005年协议的步骤 无核化协议。第一阶段包括在 宁边核设施以换取向朝鲜运送第一批重燃料油。 第二阶段包括停用宁边钚生产设施和 “完整无误”申报朝鲜核活动,以换取 能源援助和美国取消某些制裁。这份声明是在6月份提交的。 2008。此后,布什总统将朝鲜从《与敌方贸易法》中除名。 (TWEA)列出并通知国会,他打算解除支持恐怖主义国家的资格(SST) 在北韩同意核实条款后指定。北韩没有接受初步协议。 美国的核查提议,以及2008年9月,威胁要重新开始处理钚。 2008年10月,美国官员宣布就核查问题达成口头双边协议。 布什政府将朝鲜从SST名单上除名。朝鲜不久后就这么说了 没有同意在核地点取样,这是核实钚的关键因素 生产。自2008年12月以来,六方会谈一直没有召开。
This report summarizes what is known from open sources about the North Korean nuclear weapons program—including weapons-usable fissile material and warhead estimates—and assesses current developments in achieving denuclearization. Little detailed open-source information is available about the DPRK’s nuclear weapons production capabilities, warhead sophistication, the scope and success of its uranium enrichment program, or extent of its proliferation activities. In total, it is estimated that North Korea has between 30 and 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. While North Korea’s weapons program has been plutonium-based from the start, in the last decade, intelligence emerged pointing to a second route to a bomb using highly enriched uranium. North Korea openly acknowledged a uranium enrichment program in 2009, but has said its purpose is the production of fuel for nuclear power. In November 2010, North Korea showed visiting American experts early construction of a 100 MWT light-water reactor and a newly built gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant, both at the Yongbyon site. The North Koreans claimed the enrichment plant was operational, but this has not been independently confirmed. U.S. officials have said that it is likely other, clandestine enrichment facilities exist.Beginning in late 2002, North Korea ended an eight-year freeze on its plutonium production program, expelled international inspectors, and restarted facilities. In September 2005, members of the Six-Party Talks (United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and North Korea) issued a Joint Statement on the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted a nuclear test, with a yield of less than 1 kiloton. In February 2007, North Korea and the other members of the Six-Party Talks agreed on steps for phased implementation of the 2005 denuclearization agreement. Phase 1 included the shut-down of plutonium production at the Yongbyon nuclear complex in exchange for an initial heavy fuel oil shipment to North Korea. Phase 2 steps included disablement of plutonium production facilities at Yongbyon and a “complete and correct” declaration of DPRK nuclear activities, in exchange for delivery of energy assistance and removal of certain U.S. sanctions. The declaration was submitted in June 2008. Thereafter, President Bush removed North Korea from the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) list and notified Congress of his intent to lift the State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) designation after North Korea agreed to verification provisions. North Korea did not accept initial U.S. verification proposals, and in September 2008, threatened to restart reprocessing plutonium. U.S. officials announced a verbal bilateral agreement on verification in October 2008, and the Bush administration removed North Korea from the SST List. North Korea soon after said that it had not agreed to sampling at nuclear sites, a key element for verification of plutonium production. The Six-Party Talks have not convened since December 2008.-
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