2015年全球风电报告年度市场Global Wind Report Annual market update 2015

2014年对风电行业来说是一个伟大的一年，创下了单年装机超过51千兆瓦的新纪录，使全球装机总量接近370千兆瓦。我们知道去年会有一个实质性的复苏，但没有人预测中国将仅安装23gw的新风电（另一项记录）；这也解释了我们去年预计的47gw与实际安装的51gw之间的大部分差异。在亚洲的其他地方，印度度过了一个不引人注意的一年，但随着新政府可再生能源的推进，我们预计印度在未来的5-10年会有巨大的发展；在巴基斯坦和菲律宾也有显著的新设施，帮助亚洲再次引领所有地区市场，并在累积方面超过欧洲装机容量。欧洲也给了我们一个惊喜，尽管没有那么戏剧性，因为我们预计欧洲市场的年增长率将达到5%左右，而我们正在寻找一个小的衰退。德国也创下了新纪录，装机近5300兆瓦，这是除中国和美国以外的任何国家在一年内首次装机超过5000兆瓦。英国、瑞典和法国都度过了美好的岁月，波兰和土耳其也一样。2014年美国市场大幅复苏，我们预计2015年将进一步复苏。加拿大的情况也一样，尽管目前这两个市场看起来都将在2016年某个时候遭遇某种政策真空。墨西哥将采取一些松懈，因为其能源改革进程的进程向前迈进，十年余下的雄心勃勃的目标。与2013相比，2014拉丁美洲市场规模增长了两倍，累计装机容量增长近80%。巴西以去年近2500兆瓦的装机容量位居世界第四，在全球累计排名中位列第十。智利和乌拉圭也公布了强劲的数据，该地区现在已经开始充分挖掘其巨大的风力发电潜力。2014年的一个重大新故事是南非，2014年，南非的电力市场正式腾飞，装机560兆瓦，还有更多的电力供应。摩洛哥插手了非洲最大的风电场，300兆瓦的塔尔法亚项目，似乎非洲将在北部、南部和东部蓬勃发展，西非的发展稍晚。2014年和未来的两大事件继续是石油价格的急剧下跌，以及对气候变化的日益担忧，为2015年底在巴黎举行的第21届缔约方会议做准备。人们常常认为，油价下跌将对风电行业产生影响，但目前还没有证据表明这一点——总的来说，我们没有与石油竞争，天然气价格也不再像过去那样与油价紧密相连。不幸的是，迄今为止几乎没有证据表明，巴黎谈判将产生的新协议将对可再生能源的部署产生很大的直接、短期影响。现在还有时间改变这种状况，而国际能源机构最近发布的有关2014年能源行业排放量趋于平稳的消息，让所有人都有希望，我们实际上能够解决气候变化问题，而风能将是其中的一个重要部分。可以肯定的是，在最近大多数增长市场中，风能的主要驱动力是一方面风能的竞争力日益增强——风能在价格上成功地与高补贴的在位者竞争的市场数量继续增长；以及消除令人窒息的烟雾的必要性，这种烟雾正在使越来越多的发展中国家的主要城市（不仅是中国）无法居住。能源安全、成本稳定、国家经济免受国际化石市场价格冲击、创造就业机会和当地工业发展以及环境方面的考虑仍然存在，但价格，今年大部分主要增长市场的主要驱动力是部署速度和应对当地空气污染。至于2015年，我们预计未来一年将达到50+GW，并将继续增长。这是全球风能理事会发布的第十份全球风电产业现状年度报告。它及时地提供了全球工业的全面概览；一个工业目前分布在80多个国家，其中24个国家的装机容量超过1000兆瓦，11个国家的装机容量超过5000兆瓦。报告中包含的信息——市场数据、利润和分析主要是通过全球GWEC成员协会和公司以及政府和独立分析师收集的。我们感谢我们所有的贡献者，并期待着在未来继续我们的密切合作。

2014 was a great year for the wind industry, setting a  new record of more than 51 GW installed in a single  year, bringing the global total close to 370 GW. We knew  there would be a substantial recovery last year, but nobody predicted that China would install 23 GW of new  wind power alone (another record); and that explains  most of the difference between our projection last year  of 47 GW and the actual 51 GW that was installed. Elsewhere in Asia, India had an unspectacular year, but we expect great things from India in the coming 5-10 years as  the new government’s renewables push gets underway;  and there were signififi cant new installations in Pakistan  and the Philippines, helping Asia to once again lead all  regional markets and pass Europe in terms of cumulative  installed capacity.Europe also provided us with a surprise, albeit much  less dramatic, in the sense that the annual market grew  by about 5%, where we were looking for a small downturn. Germany also set a new record, installing nearly  5,300 MW, which is the fifi rst time any country other than  China or the US has installed more than 5,000 MW in a  single year. The UK, Sweden and France had good years,  and as did Poland and Turkey. The US market recovered substantially in 2014, and we  expect it to recover further in 2015. The same can be said  of Canada, although both markets at this point in time  look like they will run up against a policy vacuum of one  sort or another sometime in 2016. Mexico will take up  some of the slack, as the process of embedding its energy  reform process moves ahead, with ambitious targets for  the rest of the decade. The 2014 Latin American market tripled in size compared  with 2013, for cumulative installed capacity growth of  nearly 80%. Brazil led the market, at #4 in the world  with nearly 2,500 MW installed last year, and moved  into 10th place in the global cumulative rankings. Chile  and Uruguay also posted strong numbers, and the region  is now fifi nally starting to tap into its huge wind power  potential. The big new story in 2014 was South Africa, where the  market fifi nally took off in 2014, installing 560 MW, with  much more to come. Morocco chipped in with Africa’s  largest wind farm, the 300 MW Tarfaya project, and it  seems as though Africa is set to boom, North, South and  East, with West Africa coming along a bit later.The two big stories in 2014 and going forward continue  to be the precipitous drop in the price of oil, and growing  concerns about climate change, leading up to the COP 21  summit in Paris at the end of 2015. It’s often suggested  that the lower oil prices will have an effect on the wind  sector, but there’s no evidence of that yet – by and large,  we don’t compete with oil, and the price of gas is no  longer tied to the price of oil as closely as it once was. It is also unfortunately the case that there is little evidence so far that the new agreement which will emerge  from the Paris talks will have much of a direct, short term  impact on renewables deployment. There’s still time for  that to change, and the recent news from the IEA about  energy sector emissions plateauing in 2014 gives hope  to all and sundry that we can in fact tackle the climate  change problem, and wind energy will be a big part of  that. It’s safe to say that the main drivers for wind energy in  most of the growth markets of late have been on the one  hand wind’s increasingly competitiveness – the number  of markets where wind competes successfully on price  against heavily subsidized incumbents continues to grow;  and the need to fifi ght the choking smog that is making  an increasing number of the developing world’s major  cities (not only in China) unlivable. Energy security, cost  stability, insulation of national economies from the price  shocks in the international fossil markets, job creation  and local industrial development as well as environmental considerations are all still present, but price, speed of  deployment and fifi ghting local air pollution have been  the main drivers in most of the major growth markets  this year. As for 2015, we’re projecting another 50+ GW  year, and continued growth from there. This is the tenth annual report on the status of the global  wind industry by the Global Wind Energy Council. It provides a comprehensive overview of the global industry at  a moment in time; an industry now present in more than  80 countries, 24 of which have more than 1,000 MW  installed, and 11 with more than 5,000 MW. The information contained in the report – market data, profifi les and  analysis have been collected primarily through GWEC’s  member associations and companies around the world,  as well as from governments and independent analysts.  We thank all our contributors and look forward to continuing our close cooperation in the future.