钻探低迷对地方财政的影响：地方政府对于减少石油天然气开采活动的影响在美国5个页岩区Local Fiscal Effects of a Drilling Downturn: Local Governm

2009年至2014年间，美国的石油和天然气开发急剧增加，随后随着大宗商品价格下跌，石油和天然气开发急剧下滑。这种增长和随后的收缩已经影响到数十个地区的地方政府。2013年至2015年，我们对16个州21个地区的数百名地方官员进行了结构性采访，发现大多数地方政府都从石油和天然气开发的增加中获得了净财政收益。2016年和2017年，我们回到了五个关键地区（巴克肯、丹佛-朱列斯堡、伊格尔-福特、马塞勒斯和二叠纪剧团），看看经济衰退是否以及如何影响了地方政府的财政状况。虽然效果因地方因素而异，但财政状况总体有所改善，82%的地方政府报告了净的积极财政效果，而我们此前访问这些地区时，这一比例为63%。然而，管理收入波动已成为许多地方政府面临的一项重大挑战，虽然经济多样化是大多数地方官员的优先事项，但实现这一目标将是困难的，特别是对于严重依赖石油和天然气部门的农村社区。

Oil and gas development in the United States dramatically increased between 2009 and 2014, then saw a steep downturn as commodity prices fell. This growth and subsequent contraction has affected local governments in dozens of regions. From 2013 to 2015, we conducted structured interviews with hundreds of local officials in 21 regions across 16 states, finding that most local governments had experienced net fiscal benefits from increased oil and gas development. We returned to five key regions (the Bakken, Denver-Julesburg, Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Permian plays) in 2016 and 2017 to see whether and how the downturn had affected fiscal conditions for local governments. While effects varied depending on local factors, fiscal conditions have generally improved, with 82 percent of local governments reporting net positive fiscal effects, compared with 63 percent during our previous visits to these regions. However, managing revenue volatility has emerged as a major challenge for many local governments, and while economic diversification is a priority for most local officials, achieving this goal will be difficult, particularly for rural communities that are or have become heavily dependent on the oil and gas sector.