2015年四年一次能源审查方案制定，评估石油、精炼石油产品、电力和天然气的输送、储存和分配系统的压力、机遇和弹性。Scenario Development for the 2015 Quadrenni

本分析的目的是帮助美国能源部能源政策和系统分析中心（EPSA）评估在能源需求、供应和分配发生重大变化的高压力情景下，能源传输、储存和分配（TS&D）系统的性能，或者其他不确定因素有可能在2030年前大幅改变美国的能源体系。兰德公司的研究人员开发了一个分析框架和相关指标，用于在一系列不确定因素的影响下，在2030年前检查美国技术与开发系统的脆弱性、机遇和风险。我们评估了三大科技开发系统的主要压力和机遇：石油和再生石油产品、电力和天然气。另外，我们还考虑了这些系统对短期冲击和破坏的恢复能力。EPSA要求进行这一分析，以支持2015年四年期能源审查（QER）。本卷第1卷的《能源定量宽松政策》重点关注能源技术与开发系统，是一项联邦政府倡议，旨在系统地审查能源系统的性能，并探索提高性能的各种方案，以实现21世纪的目标。

Te purpose of this analysis is to help the U.S. Department of Energy Ofce of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA) assess how energy transmission, storage, and distribution (TS&D) systems might perform under high-stress scenarios in which major shifts in energy demand, supply, or other uncertain factors have the potential to dramatically change the U.S. energy system by 2030. RAND researchers developed an analytical framework and associated metrics for examining vulnerabilities, opportunities, and risks to U.S. TS&D systems through 2030 under a range of uncertainties. We assess major stresses on and opportunities in three major TS&D systems: oil and refned-oil products, electric power, and natural gas. Separately, we also consider the resilience of these systems to short-term shocks and disruptions. EPSA requested this analysis to support the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review (QER). Te QER, which focuses on energy TS&D systems in this frst volume, is a federal government initiative to systematically examine energy system performance and explore options to improve that performance to address 21st-century objectives.