首页 > 资料下载 > 附带损害：美国制裁伊朗对巴基斯坦的影响COLLATERAL DAMAGE: THE IMPACT ON PAKISTAN FROM U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN

附带损害：美国制裁伊朗对巴基斯坦的影响COLLATERAL DAMAGE: THE IMPACT ON PAKISTAN FROM U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN

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更新时间：2021-09-25
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根据定义，制裁的目的是给其他人带来痛苦。但是，在理想的情况下，这种痛苦只能由制裁的目标感到，而制裁的目标则倾向于改变其政策，使之更符合制裁者的利益。然而，尽管许多人认为，现代制裁已经变得像“聪明的”炸弹一样“聪明”，但它们仍然可能失手。在使用制裁时，意外后果是一种公认的现象，但通常只在针对目标的情况下考虑。本文评估了制裁对那些因制裁伊朗天然气开发和投资而无法与被制裁实体做生意的人的意外后果。推动这项研究的问题很简单：美国对伊朗的制裁（1996年首次在《伊朗-利比亚制裁法》（ILSA）和克林顿总统对伊朗的全面禁运中实施）是否对巴基斯坦产生了明显的有害影响，如果是的话，会有多大的影响，以何种形式？简单地说，他们值得吗？本文认为，对伊朗实施制裁对巴基斯坦造成了伤害，但需要进行一定程度的反事实分析，才能准确预测如果没有美国的制裁，巴基斯坦可能在多大程度上以及如何发展。我还得出结论，美国对伊朗的制裁对牵连巴基斯坦的影响微乎其微，但不可能确定如果没有制裁制度，制裁制度的效力会受到多大程度的损害。

By definition, sanctions are intended to inflict pain on others. But, ideally constructed, that pain is only felt by the target of the sanctions, which then is inclined to change its policy to something more consistent with the interests of the sanctioner. Yet, notwithstanding many suggestions that modern sanctions have become “smart,” like “smart” bombs, they can still miss. Unintended consequences are a well-established phenomenon in the use of sanctions but are usually considered only in the context of the target. This paper assesses the unintended consequences of sanctions on those who are prevented from doing business with a sanctioned entity—in this case Pakistan’s energy firms due to sanctions against Iranian natural gas development and investment. The question that motivated this research is simple: Did US sanctions against Iran, which were first imposed in 1996 in the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) and in the comprehensive embargo erected by President Clinton against Iran, have a discernable, deleterious impact on Pakistan and if so, how much and in what form? And were they, simply put, worth it? This paper finds that Pakistan was harmed by the imposition of sanctions against Iran, though it requires some degree of counterfactual analysis to divine exactly to what degree and how Pakistan might have developed absent US sanctions. I also conclude that the impact of US sanctions against Iran that implicated Pakistan was marginal but that it is impossible to ascertain how much the effectiveness of the sanctions regime would have been impaired in their absence.

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附带损害：美国制裁伊朗对巴基斯坦的影响COLLATERAL DAMAGE: THE IMPACT ON PAKISTAN FROM U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN

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