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朝鲜核武器：技术问题North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues

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更新时间：2021-09-25
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这份报告总结了从公开来源了解的关于朝鲜核问题的情况。武器计划-包括武器用裂变材料和弹头估计-以及评估实现无核化的当前发展。很少详细的开源有关朝鲜核武器生产能力、弹头的信息可以获得铀浓缩项目的复杂程度、范围和成功程度增殖活性。据估计，朝鲜的总重量在30至50公斤之间。分离钚，足够制造至少六枚核武器。而朝鲜武器计划从一开始就以钚为基础，在过去十年里出现并指出使用高浓缩铀制造炸弹的第二条路线。北韩 2009年，中国公开承认了一项铀浓缩计划，但曾表示，其目标是生产用于核能的燃料。2010年11月，朝鲜展示了访问美国的情景。 100MWT轻水反应堆和新建气体离心机的早期建造铀浓缩工厂，都在宁边工地。朝鲜人要求进行浓缩。工厂已投入运行，但尚未得到独立确认。美国官员说，很可能还有其他的秘密浓缩设施。2012年2月的公告承诺朝鲜暂停核试验、远程导弹试验以及铀试验国际原子能机构监测下的宁边浓缩暂停

This report summarizes what is known from open sources about the North Korean nuclear weapons program—including weapons-usable fissile material and warhead estimates—and assesses current developments in achieving denuclearization. Little detailed open-source information is available about the DPRK’s nuclear weapons production capabilities, warhead sophistication, the scope and success of its uranium enrichment program, or extent of its proliferation activities. In total, it is estimated that North Korea has between 30 and 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. While North Korea’s weapons program has been plutonium-based from the start, in the past decade, intelligence emerged pointing to a second route to a bomb using highly enriched uranium. North Korea openly acknowledged a uranium enrichment program in 2009, but has said its purpose is the production of fuel for nuclear power. In November 2010, North Korea showed visiting American experts early construction of a 100 MWT light-water reactor and a newly built gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant, both at the Yongbyon site. The North Koreans claimed the enrichment plant was operational, but this has not been independently confirmed. U.S. officials have said that it is likely other, clandestine enrichment facilities exist. A February 2012 announcement commits North Korea to moratoria on nuclear and long-range missile testing as well as uranium enrichment suspension at Yongbyon under IAEA monitoring

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朝鲜核武器：技术问题North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues

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