International Atomic Energy Agency Annual Report 2004国际原子能机构2004年度报告

The international atomic energy agency and the world 20041. The outlook for nuclear power continued to change in 2004;The increasing role of nuclear applications in global sustainable development initiatives;Global nuclear developments such as expanding international cooperation on security and security issues and a growing awareness of the need to strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime present new challenges and opportunities for the iaea.The present report highlights the agency's response to these challenges through its activities within the three-pillar framework of technology, safety and verification.technologyCurrent situation and trend of nuclear power2. 2004 marks the 50th anniversary of civil nuclear power production.Fifty years ago in obinsk, the Russian federation, nuclear power was first put on the grid.Since then, the world has seen a steady increase in nuclear power, accompanied by a gradual shift in energy demand to the developing world.Today, even though 94% of the world's nuclear capacity is in industrialized countries, developing countries account for 60% of the new reactors under construction.3. With 440 power reactors in operation around the world at the end of 2004, nuclear power continues to account for about 16 per cent of world electricity production and has kept pace with the steady growth of the global electricity market.By the end of 2004, 26 nuclear power plants were being built around the world, most of them (18) in Asia.4. Five new units were integrated into the grid during the year, one each in China, Japan and the Russian federation, and two in Ukraine.An idle unit in Canada has been reconnected to the grid, and construction has begun on the 500 megawatt (e) prototype fast reactor in India and the 866 megawatt (e) pot-3 pressurized water reactor in Japan.Five of the units have been retired. They are: four 50mw units in the UKUnit and Lithuanian 1185 mw ignalina-1 unit.5. In Western Europe, Finland has begun the excavation of the olkiluoto-3 nuclear power plant, which will be the first to be built in the area since 1991.Edf has also selected a site at flemanville for a European demonstration PWR, which is expected to begin construction in 2007.6. In the United States, the NRC has granted an additional 11 permit extensions of 20 years each (a total of 60 years for each nuclear power plant), bringing the total number of permit extensions approved to 30.To date, about three of the 104 nuclear power plants in the United States have either obtained, applied for, or indicated their intention to apply for license renewal.The U.S. department of energy has also approved financial assistance for two industrial consortia to conduct demonstration projects for nuclear power plant licenses, raising the prospect of new nuclear construction in the United States in the near future.7. While the real future of nuclear power remains unclear, expectations are rising markedly.The agency's most recent forecasts, published in 2004 (see chart 1), differ markedly from four years ago.The agency's low-value projections, based on the most conservative assumptions, estimated global nuclear capacity at 427 gigawatts in 2020, equivalent to 127 additional 1,000mw plants over the 2000 projections.8. The projected changes stem from specific plans and actions taken by a number of countries to expand nuclear power.New projections for nuclear power, especially long-term ones, have also been reinforced by the entry into force of the Kyoto protocol.The DE facto absence of restrictions or taxes on greenhouse gas emissions in the past means that the low emissions advantages of nuclear power have not produced real economic value.The broad and harmonised emissions limits provided for in the Kyoto protocol are likely to change that in the longer term.9. The majority of the increase in nuclear power generation over the past decade has not been due to the contribution of new nuclear power plants, but to improvements in the utilization of existing power plants, changes that are directly related to improvements in global safety performance.As a result, existing well-functioning nuclear plants have become increasingly valuable assets.Although the initial basic investment in nuclear power plants is high, operating costs are relatively low and stable.10. However, not every country shares the view that improved economic and safety performance justifies the revival of nuclear power.In Western Europe, for example, Belgium, Germany and Sweden are currently in the process of phasing out nuclear power, while other countries, including Austria, Denmark and Ireland, have declared their opposition to nuclear power.

国际原子能机构和世界2004

1. 在2004年中，核电前景的不断变化；核应用在全球可持续发展行动中的作用日 增；安全和保安问题的国际合作日益扩大以及对加强防止核扩散制度必要性的认识不断 深入等诸如此类的全球核发展为国际原子能机构带来了新的挑战和机遇。本报告重点阐 述原子能机构通过在技术、安全和核查三大支柱框架内开展的活动对这些挑战所做响 应的情况。

技术

核电的现状与趋势

2. 2004年是民用核电生产50周年。50年前在俄罗斯联邦奥布宁斯克，核动力发电首 次被送入电网。此后，世界目睹了核电的稳步增长，同时也伴随着能源需求增长逐渐转 向发展中国家。今天，纵然世界核电装机容量的94%是在工业化国家，但发展中国家占 有正在建设的新反应堆的数量则达60%。

3. 截至2004年底，世界各地有440座动力堆在运行，核能继续占世界电力生产约16%, 并与全球电力市场的稳步增长保持同步。到2004年底，世界各地有26座核电厂正在建 设，其中大多数（18座）是在亚洲。

4. 在这一年中有5台新机组并入电网，其中中国、日本和俄罗斯联邦各1台，乌克兰 2台。加拿大1台闲置的机组重新并网，印度的500兆瓦（电）原型快堆和日本的866 兆瓦（电）泊-3号压水堆已开工建造。5台机组已经退休，它们是：英国4台50兆瓦

（电）机组和立陶宛1185兆瓦（电）Ignalina-1号机组。

5. 在西欧，芬兰已开始Olkiluoto-3号核电机组的开挖工作，这将是自1991年以来在 该地区新建的第一台机组。法国电力公司也为1座欧洲示范压水堆选择了位于弗拉芒维 尔的场址，预计该压水堆将于2007年开始建造。

6. 在美国，核管理委员会已批准另外11个许可证各延长20年（每座核电厂的许可寿 期总计为60年），从而使已批准许可证延长的总数达到30个。迄今，美国104座核电 厂中约四方之三或已获得，或已申请，或已表示打算申请许可证更新。美国能源部还批 准了对2个工业财团开展核电厂许可证审批示范项目的财政援助，这使美国新的核电建 设项目有望在近期成为可能。

7. 虽然核能的现实前景仍不明朗，但对它的期望值却在明显提升。原子能机构在2004 年发布的近期预测（见图1）与4年前有明显不同。原子能机构基于最保守假设所作的 低值预测估计2020年全球核电装机容量为427吉瓦，相当于比2000年的预测增加127 座1000兆瓦的核电厂。

8. 这种预测变化来源于一些国家为扩大核电所制订的具体计划和行动。对核电的新预 测特别是长期预测也因《京都议定书》生效而得到加强。过去对温室气体排放实际上没 有实施限制或征税意味着核电的低排放优势并没有产生实际的经济价值。《京都议定 书》规定的广泛而协调的排放限制从较长远看将有可能改变这种状况。

9. 过去10年中核发电量的大部分增长并不是由于新建核电厂的贡献，而是归功于现 有电厂利用率的提高，这种变化与全球安全实绩的改进直接相关。其结果是，现有运行 良好的核电厂已日益成为宝贵的资产。虽然核电厂的初始基本投资很高，但运行费用则 相对较低而且稳定。

10. 然而，并非每个国家都赞同这种观点，即改善经济性和安全实绩为核电复苏提供了 正当理由。例如在西欧，比利时、德国和瑞典目前正在实行逐步取消核能的政策，而包 括奥地利、丹麦和爱尔兰在内的其他一些国家已宣布反对核电的政策。