1. Since its establishment half a century ago, the international atomic energy agency (iaea) has always played the role of focal point in promoting worldwide cooperation in the peaceful USES of nuclear technology, enhancing global nuclear safety and security, and ensuring compliance through verification activities with international obligations on nuclear materials and facilities for peaceful purposes.The following sections provide an overview of the "nuclear developments" achieved worldwide in 2008 within the framework of the three pillars: technology, safety and security and verification, and their impact on the work of the iaea.  technology Nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle and sustainable developmentCurrent situation and trend of nuclear power2. 2008 was an abnormal year for nuclear power.No new reactors have been added to the grid, although projections for the future of nuclear power have been revised upward.This is the first year since 1955 that no new reactors have been put into operation.But construction began on 10 new reactors, the most since 1985.By the end of 2008, a total of 44 nuclear-powered reactors were under construction and 438 were operating, providing about 14 percent of the world's electricity.3. Current developments and near-term and long-term growth prospects remain asia-centric.Of the 10 reactors that began construction in 2008, eight were in the area.Of the 44 reactors under construction at the end of 2008, 28 were in Asia.In addition, 28 of the 39 new reactors brought online in recent years are in the region.On a country-by-country basis, China is considering sharply increasing its nuclear power growth targets.Six of the 10 reactors under construction in 2008 were in China.India's plan to expand its civilian nuclear power programme 15-fold over the next 20 years is expected to be boosted by the lifting in 2008 of restrictions on the supply of nuclear technology previously imposed by suppliers.The Russian federation has raised its target for nuclear power capacity to 52 to 59 gigawatts (gw) by 2020.The NRC has received joint license applications for 18 new reactors, bringing the total under review to 26.4. In 2008, the iaea revised up its medium-term forecast for nuclear power, raising its low and high forecasts for 2030 to 473 gigawatts (gw) 1 and 748 gw (gw) respectively (figure 1).The international energy agency also raised its forecast.Innovative nuclear technology5. Iaea continued to promote coordination and information sharing in the field of technological innovation and development.In particular, iaea has compiled a summary of developing country expectations and prepared a "user general consideration" for the development of appropriate designs in the near future.Six countries completed the evaluation of innovative nuclear systems using the evaluation methodology developed by the iaea international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles, and eight other countries completed similar joint studies.The methodology of the international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles will be updated with the results obtained.6. A "fourth generation international forum" was established to lead the world's leading nuclear powers in developing next-generation nuclear energy systems to meet future energy needs.In 2008, China signed a "system arrangement" for joint work on ultra-high temperature reactors.France, Japan and the United States are coordinating prototype sodium-cooled fast reactors.Other projects on system integration, safety and operation, advanced fuels, nuclear power plant supporting subitems and the global actinide cycle international demonstration are under way.Iaea and the fourth international forum organized a workshop on the use of software to evaluate the economics of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors in October.Supply to ensure7. In 2008, the director general's proposal to establish an iaea-sponsored stockpile of nuclear fuel as a last resort to prevent supply disruptions received a number of positive responses.In September 2006, the initiative against the nuclear threat proposed to contribute us $50 million to the iaea with an additional contribution of us $100 million from member states.By the end of 2008, Norway ($5 million), the united Arab emirates ($10 million), the United States ($50 million) and the European Union (25 million euros) to support the iaea may establish low-enriched uranium reserves to provide the contributions and made donors, so that the iaea has very close to the required amount of $150 million.3 also in 2008, progress was made on other proposals made by member states relating to fuel supply guarantees.4 these include the German proposal to establish a "multilateral enrichment protected area project", 5, and the Russian federation's initiative to establish a stockpile of low enriched uranium at the angarsk international uranium enrichment centre to be made available to iaea for use by its member states upon request.

1. 国际原子能机构成立半个世纪以来，在促进世界范围和平利用核技术合作、提高全球核安全和核保安以及通过核查活动确保核材料和核设施用于和平目的的国际义务得到遵守方面始终发挥着协调中心的作用。以下各节概述了 2008 年全世界在三个支柱即技术、安全与保安和核查的框架内实现的“核发展”以及这些发展对原子能机构工作产生的影响。

技 术

核电、核燃料循环和可持续发展

核电的现状与趋势

2. 2008 年对于核电是反常的一年。虽然对核电今后发展的预测作了上调，但却没有任何新反应堆并入电网。这是 1955 年以来第一年没有任何一座新反应堆投入运行。但有 10 座新反应堆开工建设，这是 1985 年以来历年中数量最多的一年。到 2008 年底， 总共有 44 座核动力反应堆正在建造，438 座正在运行，供电量占全世界发电总量的约14%。

3. 当前的发展以及近期和远期的增长前景仍以亚洲为中心。在 2008 年开工建设的 10 座反应堆中，8 座在该地区。在截至 2008 年底正在建造的 44 座反应堆中，有 28 座在亚洲。此外，在近年并网的 39 座新反应堆中，有 28 座在该地区。就各个国家而言， 中国正在考虑大幅提高其核电增长目标。2008 年开工建设的 10 座反应堆中有 6 座在中国。印度计划在今后 20 年中将其民用核电计划扩大 15 倍，而 2008 年供应国取消以前对印度施加的核技术供应限制预计将对印度的这一计划起到促进作用。俄罗斯联邦提高了目标，其核电装机容量计划到 2020 年达到 52 至 59 吉瓦（电）。美国核管理委员会收到了 18 座新反应堆的联合许可证申请，从而使正在审查之中的新反应堆总数达到26 座。

   4.2008 年，原子能机构上调了其对核电的中期预测，将对 2030 年的低值预测和高值预测分别上调到了 473 吉瓦（电）¹ 和 748 吉瓦（电）（图 1）。国际能源机构也上调了其预测。

创新型核技术

   5.  原子能机构继续促进技术创新和发展领域的协调和信息共享。具体而言，原子能机构对发展中国家的预期进行了汇总，编写了在近期开发适当设计时的“用户通用考虑因素”。六个国家使用原子能机构“革新型核反应堆和燃料循环国际项目”制订的评价方法学完成了对革新型核系统的评定，另有八个国家也完成了类似的联合研究。将使用取得的结果更新“革新型核反应堆和燃料循环国际项目”的方法学。

6. 设立了“第四代国际论坛”，目的是引领全世界主要的核技术国家开发下一代核能系统，以满足未来的能源需求。2008 年，中国签署了联合开展超高温反应堆工作的“系统安排”。法国、日本和美国正在协调开展原型钠冷快堆工作。关于系统整合、安全和运行、先进燃料、核电厂配套子项和“全球锕系元素循环国际论证”的其他项目正在执行之中。原子能机构和“第四代国际论坛”于 10 月组织了一个关于使用软件评价高温气冷堆经济性的讲习班。

供应保证

7.2008 年，总干事关于作为最后手段建立由原子能机构主持的核燃料储备以防供应中断的建议得到了许多积极响应。2006 年 9 月，“反对核威胁倡议”提出在成员国追加捐款 1 亿美元的情况下向原子能机构捐款 5000 万美元。到 2008 年底，挪威（500 万美元）、阿拉伯联合酋长国（1000 万美元）、美国（5000 万美元）和欧洲联盟（2500 万欧元）为支持原子能机构可能建立的低浓铀储备提供了捐款和作出了认捐，从而使原子能机构已非常接近为此所需的 1.5 亿美元的总额。³ 也是在 2008 年，在成员国提出的与燃料供应保证有关的其他建议方面也取得了进展。⁴ 这些建议包括德国关于设立“多边浓缩保护区项目”的建议，⁵ 以及俄罗斯联邦关于在安加尔斯克国际铀浓缩中心建立低浓铀储备以便在原子能机构提出要求后提供给原子能机构供其成员国使用的倡议。